Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Main Takeaways: <strong>The energy bet is starting to look compelling.</strong> Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.</li><li><strong>The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched.</strong> The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Main Takeaways: The energy bet is starting to look compelling. Oil positioning is fairly bearish, and it seems hedge funds are starting to play the oil trade from the short side after months of avoiding energy altogether.The risk asset trade is still on, but positioning is stretched. The Santa rally suggests higher equity prices, but year-end position squaring could disrupt the long equities play.

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

<ul><li>Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.</li><li>The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.</li><li>With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.</li></ul>

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

<ul><li>Our Geopolitical team is wrapping up an analysis on the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict.</li><li>In the meantime, here’s a piece we believe markets might not yet be fully tuned into:With Donald Trump and Elon Musk seemingly forming a close alliance, their influence on trade and economic policies has become a hot topic.</li><li>Notably, Vivek Ramaswamy and Musk have thrown their support behind Javier Milei’s economic strategy in Argentina, which includes radical measures such as aggressive spending cuts and a commitment to reducing trade barriers.</li></ul>

Our Geopolitical team is wrapping up an analysis on the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict.In the meantime, here’s a piece we believe markets might not yet be fully tuned into:With Donald Trump and Elon Musk seemingly forming a close alliance, their influence on trade and economic policies has become a hot topic.Notably, Vivek Ramaswamy and Musk have thrown their support behind Javier Milei’s economic strategy in Argentina, which includes radical measures such as aggressive spending cuts and a commitment to reducing trade barriers.

<ul><li>Happy Monday! Welcome to our “Week at a Glance” series, where we highlight the key events and trends to watch for the week ahead.</li><li>Monday:BOJ Ueda – Volatility IgnitedBank of Japan Governor Ueda’s remarks today set the stage for rising yen volatility, as he dodged giving markets a decisive signal on December’s rate hike prospects.</li><li>With Ueda emphasizing data-dependency and the challenge of gauging the weak yen’s impact, traders are left grappling with a coin toss for December – keeping uncertainty alive.</li></ul>

Happy Monday! Welcome to our “Week at a Glance” series, where we highlight the key events and trends to watch for the week ahead.Monday:BOJ Ueda – Volatility IgnitedBank of Japan Governor Ueda’s remarks today set the stage for rising yen volatility, as he dodged giving markets a decisive signal on December’s rate hike prospects.With Ueda emphasizing data-dependency and the challenge of gauging the weak yen’s impact, traders are left grappling with a coin toss for December – keeping uncertainty alive.

The Week at a Glance – The largest company about to report – fuel for the Nasdaq bet?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.</li><li>That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.</li><li>This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.

Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?

Andreas is the founder and Head of Research of the European Power Research house "Steno Research." Building on years of experience as Global Chief Strategist at Nordea Bank, he is one of the most quoted and sought-after macro analysts out there. Andreas’ expertise is the macro strategy, energy, real estate and equity spaces, but doesn’t shy away from hot takes on other topics if the underlying analysis is strong enough. 

Andreas anchors the weekly editorial ‘Steno Signals’ and other watch series from Steno Research.