PPHE Hotel Group - Elevated discount to NAV

PPHE’s FY19 results were in line with our expectations, with RevPAR outperformance in most markets in which it competes. FY20 looks a more challenging year due to the threats to travel from the outbreak of the coronavirus, as well as tough comparatives. The company has a history of outperforming its peers in good and tough markets and has the benefit of maturing room stock in key markets. In the long term, the development pipeline continues to look promising. We downgrade our EBITDA forecast for FY20 by 14% due to the uncertainty in this environment. The shares are trading at a discount to the reported EPRA NAV of c 50%.