New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Based on the current share prices of Contact Energy (CEN) and Manawa Energy (MNW), our view on the value of both stocks, and our view on whether the Commerce Commission (ComCom) will grant clearance for CEN's takeover of MNW, MNW shareholders should consider switching to CEN.</li><li>Doing so locks in some of the upside from the takeover, but removes the downside risk the ComCom does not grant clearance.</li><li>Our analysis suggests the market is pricing in a ~60% probability the deal will get clearance, slightly higher than our current view, making a switch more favourable. </li></ul>

Based on the current share prices of Contact Energy (CEN) and Manawa Energy (MNW), our view on the value of both stocks, and our view on whether the Commerce Commission (ComCom) will grant clearance for CEN's takeover of MNW, MNW shareholders should consider switching to CEN.Doing so locks in some of the upside from the takeover, but removes the downside risk the ComCom does not grant clearance.Our analysis suggests the market is pricing in a ~60% probability the deal will get clearance, slightly higher than our current view, making a switch more favourable. 

Manawa Energy Ltd

Manawa Energy - Time to Flip the Switch?