Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Sep 8, 2024

1. Intel. Could Things Get Any Worse? You Bet. Here’s How.

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel faces two class action lawsuits, one of which has the potential to be many times worse than the “Pentium Flaw” fiasco in 1994
• The resignation of Lip-Bu Tan from Intel’s BoD is a significant blow particularly in view of his rumoured disagreements with the CEO and other BoD members
• Intel’s below book value market cap presents an attractive opportunity for any consortium with the vision to extract the value that Gelsinger’s IDM 2.0 gambit has failed to unlock

2. Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel’s CFO says the company is going to “kind of skip over productizing 20A”
• This decision removes an important, looming milestone from Intel’s roadmap, i.e. the ramp of Arrow Lake later this year
• The decision to outsource all Arrow Lake tiles, apart from final packaging, strongly suggests that Intel 3 and Intel 18A are not capable of a cost-competitive volume ramp

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Benefiting from Intel (INTC.US) Skipping 20A Process.

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)  will benefit from Intel Corp (INTC US)‘s decision to use their 20A processor, named Arrow Lake.  
• Intel plans to stick with the 18A process and has identified about 5 potential customers.
• As of now, TSMC remains the primary source for technology deliveries.

4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia’s SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Latest Industry Signals — Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared… Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia’s Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed Names Were a Mixed Bag of Performance
• Key Events to Watch — SEMICON Taiwan This Week, We Will Be Attending
• Perspective — NVIDIA’s >5x YoY “Singapore” Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

5. Hotchips Conference Sparknotes

By Douglas O’Laughlin, Fabricated Knowledge

• Hot Chips this year was primarily about AI chips (per the theme of every semiconductor conference as of late).
• The most impactful presentation by far was the Broadcom CPO presentation, SuperMicro water cooling, MTIA, and some honorable mentions to Enfabrica and Dojo/Mojo from Tesla.
• The biggest disappointment was AMD, which presented nothing incremental and, of course, the CPU announcements.

6. Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.

By Patrick Liao

• The 4Q24 is slightly on the downside, and we are currently adopting a somewhat conservative approach.  
• Visibility extends for no more than 3 months, and any increase in demand is primarily driven by urgent orders.
• As for the upcoming 12″ Fab, which is in collaboration with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), it has commenced local recruitment efforts in Singapore.