This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. NVIDIA’s >5x YoY “Singapore” Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag
- NVIDIA delivered another blockbuster quarter with record revenues of $30 billion, blowing well past the guided $28 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 122% YoY.
- $5.6 billion in revenues were attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up >5 times YoY
- What the heck is the city state doing with all of those GPUs?
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 Top Clients
- TSMC’s top 5 clients for 2024 are Apple (AAPL US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US, Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).
- Smartphone orders continue to dominate at TSMC, with QCOM and MediaTek being key clients.
- Looking ahead to 2025, Intel Corp (INTC US) is expected to rely more on TSMC, potentially leading to changes in TSMC’s client ranking.
3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Maintaining Strong Premium; UMC Headroom Continues to Decrease
- TSMC: +15.4% Premium; Wait for Closer to 20% Before Opening Fresh Short
- UMC: +1.2% Premium; Can Consider Shorting at 1.5% or Higher; Headroom Continues to Decrease
- ASE: +5.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before New Trade
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron’s Taiwan Expansion
- Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?
- Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand
- AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan’s server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.
5. Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
- First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.
- Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend
- There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.
6. Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)
- It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.
- Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.
- Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.
7. MHI (7011 JP): Election Unlikely to Affect Defense Budget
- The next leader of Japan’s ruling LDP, who will almost certainly become prime minister in October, will probably not make major changes to the nation’s defense policy.
- Guidance remains unchanged after 1Q results that suggest the possibility of a better than expected order flow but also a material negative impact from a stronger yen.
- MHI’s valuation is not yet in speculative territory, but neither is it compelling. If the yen remains stable, we expect the share price to test its recent highs.
8. Silergy (6415.TT): 2024 Can Be Operating Trough, and Revenue in 2025 Is Expected to Grow by 20-30%.
- Company’s 2Q24 overall performance exceeded expectations, and 3Q and 4Q are expected to be flat and to grow by 10-20% per quarter, respectively.
- With expectations of continued improvement in ASP and cost structure, overall gross profit margin is expected to continue to grow.
- Gen4 (12″) is mainly applied in EV, AI server, and new energy sectors, as these applications have higher specification requirements.
