This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops
- TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium
- ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
- CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
2. TSMC Q324 Earnings Key Takeaways
- Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017
- Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, “demand right now is just insane”
- Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025
3. ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook
- ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
- Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
- Despite these challenges, ASML’s latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025
4. TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long
- TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs
- Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped… Companies Extracting ROIs
- TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside
5. Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?
- August’s WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
- Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
- There’s valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales
6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.
- 4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
- AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
- APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it’s not the same currently.
7. KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025
- We expect King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)‘s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.
- The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.
8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung’s Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus
- Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
- Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
- TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long… TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators
