This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects
- Samsung’s foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
- TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
- Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.
- For 2nm technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) should start Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.
- TSMC’s competitors, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.
- To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.
3. TSMC Q324 Earnings Preview
- September 2024 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, an increase of 0.4% MoM and an increase of 39.6% YoY.
- Year to date revenue through September 2024 now totals NT$2,025.85 billion, an increase of 31.9% YoY.
- Anticipating Q4 revenue forecast of $25.7 billion, up 10% QoQ. This would mean full year 2024 revenues of $88.8 billion, a 28.3% YoY increase
4. Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting
- Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42
- Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to “accelerate AI development and global expansion”
- G42 “severed its ties” with China in advance of the Microsoft investment
5. Graphene. Wonder Material Or Hype Magnet?
- Two decades ago, graphene hit the headlines after two professors at University of Manchester managed to isolate a slice of the just one-atom thick substance using scotch tape
- Marketed as being 200 times stronger than steel, graphene rapidly gained “wonder material” status and spawned a tidal wave of graphene based products, companies and investment opportunities
- At least four “Graphene” companies listed on London’s AIM, collectively once worth north of $1 billion, have either delisted or been reduced to penny stock status.
6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)’s outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) moving out of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and has opened up opportunities for UMC.
- UMC is considering selling its 8″ Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.
7. Nuclear Zeitgeist Part 1: A Reactor Primer
- Last month, the DOE published a paper about the commercial liftoff of Advanced Nuclear.
- Larry Ellison mentioned that SMRs (Small modular reactors) will power data centers in the future, and Microsoft will unshutter 3 Mile Island for one last puff of a half-smoked cigarette. Just a few years ago, it was closed for economic reasons.
- This is going to be the first in a series about Nuclear Power. Today, I’ll talk about Nuclear Reactors and the basics.
8. Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024
- Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier
- Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year.
- For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space.
9. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher
- TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range
- UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
- ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
10. Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand
- Nanya Tech’s 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.
- Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.
- While the company’s new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle.
