This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc…
- The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
- China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China”
- The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don’t know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won’t be a recovery.
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion
- Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta Gear Up for Potential U.S. Investment Surge Amid Trump Policy Speculation
- PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies
3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging
- TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level
- UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
- ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down & Local Short Interest Continues to Surge
4. PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Asustek Guides for 20%+ YoY PC Revenue Growth in 4Q24E; Lenovo Delivers 17% YoY PC Revenue Growth in CY3Q24
- AI PCs: A Multi-Year Upgrade Cycle with Rising Average Selling Prices; AI PCs 80% of the PC Market by 2027E
- Maintain Structural Long View for AI PC Up-Cycle; Asustek, Acer, & Lenovo Well-Positioned Through 2025E
5. NVIDIA Q3FY25 Growth Story Still On Track But Heed The Flaws In Jensen’s GenAI Vision
- NVIDIA this week reported Q3FY25 revenues of $35.082 billion, up 17% QoQ, up 94% YoY and a full $2.5 billion above the guided midpoint.
- Looking ahead, NVIDIA is forecasting revenues of $37.5 billion, up ~7% sequentially. Gross margins to decline slightly to 73%.
- Contrary to Jensen Huang’s vision, the existing $1 trillion worth of data centers do not need to be “modernized” into AI factories. This is pure fantasy.
6. NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question
- Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.
- NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)
- Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)
7. For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML’s Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again
- Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY. Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
- Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
- After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly
