This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Falls From Elevated Level; UMC & ASE Discount Opportunity
- TSMC: +17.2% Premium; Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long
- UMC: -1.9% Discount; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
- ASE: -0.6% Discount; Discount is Opportunity to Long the Spread
2. LITE ON Comments Signal Continued Strength in Cloud/AIOT Ahead of Upcoming Nvidia Results
- Lite On Signals for Continued Strength in Cloud/AIOT Ahead of Upcoming Nvidia Results
- Lite On’s 1Q25E Outlook Was Positive and Did Not Indicate A Near-Term Slowdown
- Industry Take-Aways — Still No Signs of Acceleration on PC/Consumer… However Signals Cloud/AIoT Demand Healthy
3. NVIDIA Q425 Beats, Raises, Market Yawns, Then Vomits. A Lake Wobegon Moment Perhaps?
- Q425 revenues were a record $39.3 billion, up 78% YoY, up 12% QoQ, handily beating the guided midpoint of $37.5 billion. It was NVIDIA’s eight consecutive quarter of sequential growth.
- After taking an overnight break to consider its options, the markets then positively vomited on NVIDIA, sending its share price down 8.5% on Thursday
- Jensen presents a utopian, Lake Wobegon-esque vision of all pervasive AI but in reality the pace of AI adoption will ultimately be determined by the pace of AI revenue generation
4. Microsoft CEO On AI CapEx: Show Me The Money!
- Microsoft dominated the technology news cycle recently on the back of a report by a TD Cowen analyst that the company is cancelling data centre leases in the US
- Dwarkesh Patel’s podcast with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella last week provided a fascinating insight into his thinking when it comes to AI compute build out, AI winners & losers etc.
- Mr Nadella’s approach to AI compute build out has always been a pragmatic “show me the money and I’ll build some more compute” approach. Now we better understand why.
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump’s New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel
- Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China’s Access to Chip Technology — Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment
- Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes…
6. Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry
- Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
- They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
- They’re not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let’s see
7. Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
- Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
- Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy & the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
- Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix & Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative
8. ChipMOS Results Shows Signs of a Shifting Semiconductor Market; Precarious Multiples: Underperform
- ChipMOS Revenue Growth for the 2024, but a Weak Fourth Quarter; Gross Margin Hammered
- ChipMOS Sees Relative Weakness in Displays, Smartphones / Areas of Strength: Automotive and OLED
- Underperform Rating — Falling Utilization and Conservative Capex Signal OSAT Industry Challenges
9. What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?
- Despite the chip market’s 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications. A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.
- Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry’s historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.
- The US’ trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.
10. Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.
- 1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ.
- The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.
- VSMC’s construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.
