This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds After Sharp Breakdown; ASE Major Premium Breakdown
- TSMC: +17.9% Premium; Rebounds After Brief Breakdown; Wait for Better Levels
- UMC: +1.8% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at Current Level
- ASE: +5.5% Premium Represents a Major Breakdown; Can Consider Going Long
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.
- TSMC expects sales to grow by mid-20% YoY in USD in 2024, compared to low to mid-20% previously.
- The N3/N5 capacity is very tight, and they are even working with customers for 2026 capacity requirements, while N2 is on track to enter MP in 4Q25.
- A16 will enter MP in 2H26, and it’s first process starts adopting backside power.
3. We See TSMC’s Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up
- Significant revenue guidance hike — TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed ‘mid-20’s’ percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.
- Management is low-balling LT margins — Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.
- Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales — TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.
4. MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.
- Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.
- The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.
5. TSMC. Take The Pullback Gift
- TSMC guided Q324 revenues of $22.8 billion at the midpoint, up 9.5% QoQ and up 32% YoY
- Increased full year guidance to be above mid-20% YoY growth in US dollar terms
- Share price has declined ~14% from its 52 week high but still up >2x from its 52 week low. Many will view this pullback as a gift, we certainly do…
