This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. AMD. This Party’s Just Getting Started…
- Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY
- Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.
- We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of >70% YoY with potential for further upside
2. TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX
- TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.
TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.
Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.
3. Intel 18A is in Sight, Does it Matter?
- Intel reported earnings last week. Intel was one of my favorite stocks last year, and I wrote about it here in “Is This the Intel Inflection”, where I successfully called the bottom in the stock.
- It’s worked pretty well, even against the SOXX index since then.
- I’ll summarize my thesis back then, update you now on what I think about Intel, and write about results and read-throughs.
4. Samsung Memory Revenues Up Impressively
- Samsung’s earnings was recently reported, with memory revenues up nearly 50% in the fourth quarter
- This gain has been driven by very strong growth in AI and a normalization of inventory levels
- The memory business is approaching positive margins once again, and SK hynix is already profitable
5. LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted
- LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY
- Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.
- The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX.
6. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Can TSMC Sustain Extreme ADR Spread?; UMC Results Catalyst Tomorrow
- TSMC: +13.5% ADR Premium, Historically High Spread Represents Short Opportunity
- UMC: -0.9% ADR Discount, Results Tomorrow Could Open Up Trade Opportunity
- ASE: +9.1% Premium, Historically High But Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels
7. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today
- UMC & Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax & Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.
- Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan’s Geopolitical Shift
- First Run of Tech/Semis’ Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid
8. MediaTek (2454.TT): 2024F Indicating a Complete Recovery from the Previous Downturn Situation.
- MediaTek expects a reduced DOI level in 2024F while maintaining operating expenses and pricing discipline in 2023.
- The upgrade cycle has begun for devices equipped with AI functions. The Dimensity 9300 is just the first edge AI product for smartphones.
- MediaTek does not predict a significant increase in demand and expects a steady demand for smartphones.
9. KLAC. Looks a Lot Like LRCX!
- Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.
- Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY
- Interesting Q&A discussion on backlog. KLAC’s order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch…
10. Mediatek Results Take-Aways: High-End Devices to Take Market Share Globally; Upward Revisions Likely
- Mediatek’s results for 4Q23 exceeded expectations; Forward guidance also suggests that consensus forecasts for 2024 may need to be revised upward.
- Foresees the start of its “next growth phase” in 2024, with AI influencing mobile upgrades and the introduction of new products in late 2025, indicating potential growth through 2026E.
- Mediatek indicated that AI interest will drive high-end mobile devices to gain market share in 2024E.
