This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)‘s revenue outlook for 1Q24F is expected to show a decline of around negative high single digits QoQ.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) aims to receive x86 CPU technology from TSMC 3nm in 1H24F.
- Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) plans to utilize 3nm technology for manufacturing smartphone SoCs in 2H24F, which will narrow the gap with Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US).
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?
- We assume that Intel’s current business model is unable to fully meet the manufacturing needs in that case.
- As for the Intel Foundry Business, we believe that there is potential upside for growth.
- If Intel was doing great in Wafer Manufacturing Business, then why does it have to consider splitting up?
3. No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications
- The oversupply of 8″/12″ mature technology and price war especially within China for the next 5 years is inevitable, especially negative for SMIC and Hua Hong Semi.
- Production moving out of China semi demand might increase to 65-70% in next five years to benefit Globalfoundries, UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip mitigating impacts from rising domestic replacement in China.
- By building up in-house fabs, Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most like semiconductor equipment, material, fab construction, CoWoS interposer, and CoWoS packaging vendors.
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining
- TSMC: 10.5% Premium — Still a Good Level to Short the Spread
- UMC: Trading at -1.1% Discount — Uncompelling, Wait for Deeper Discount
- ASE: 8.8% Premium — Still Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long
5. KYEC (2449.TT): The Revenue Outlook Will Be an Upward Pickup in 2024F.
- It’s a greater chance that there will be an upward pickup in 2024F revenue for King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT), but the magnitude is hard to predict in 1H24.
- It is expected the revenue to decline by approximately -5% in 1Q24F.
- However, the demand for CoWoS at a corporate level is expected to increase by about 10% in 2024F .
6. MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
- For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
- MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.
- Mediatek’s target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.
7. Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming
- Quantum Solutions has given up 63% of its recent gain but has more NVIDIA GPU related orders in the pipeline. Keep an eye on the stock and the news flow.
- The recent upward revision to sales and profit guidance has been followed by the announcement of a capital and business tie-up with Hajime Tabata’s JP Games.
- The addition of Web-3.0 gaming to distribution of AI servers and Arm-based edge computing hardware could change the nature of the investment.
8. Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
- Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
- Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
- Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a “recovery” year.
9. Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers’ Share Price Rallies
- UPI Semi is a specialist designer of electronic components and semiconductors for power management. Power management is a key performance factor for AI devices.
- UPI’s clients include most of the world’s largest leading technology companies for semiconductor distribution and AI products.
- UPI shares have lagged the strong performance of its clients — We see opportunity for UPI to now Outperform.
10. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Parent Could Sell More of Its Stake; Thai 50x PER Vs. Taiwan 20x
- Delta Thailand vs. Taiwan valuation differential has returned to an historically extreme level.
- For 2024E & 2025E growth expectations continue to be similar for the two companies, yet Delta Thailand’s FY2024E PER is 50x while Delta Taiwan’s is 20x.
- We see substantial relative value in Delta Taiwan and expect likely reversion of relative valuation due to latest return to historically extreme mismatch.
