This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t
- Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ. Maintained full year 2024 outlook
- Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi & foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.
- SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD & Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!
2. What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?
- TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.
- No more Moore’s Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
- Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.
3. Multiple Positive Catalysts Ahead Of Q124 Earnings Season
- PC, Smartphone Unit shipments both registering YoY growth in Q124
- TSMC will beat guidance & likely guide Q224 up ~5% QoQ. Samsung’s pre earnings showed strong recovery in operating profit
- Server unit shipments are on a ~17% YoY growth run rate
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results
- Apple supply chain names are falling due concerns about weak iPhone shipments. Global PC shipments returned to growth as per IDC data.
- TSMC and ASML results this week and will be cruical for the market. Can TSMC rally again to achieve new highs or will it continue trading lower?
- Nanya Technology sees DRAM Industry pricing rising through 2024E; but is underperforming financially.
5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Sales in Line, 2024F Is Lowering the Growth Target Below 25% YoY
- Declaring a slower recovery for mature nodes was an outlier, indicating that Vanguard’s recovery progress might be slower.
- Apple’s iPhone is expected to be the focus for N2 production in 4Q15F.
- TSMC’s long-term gross margin is set at 53%, signifying a few key points.
6. ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings
- ASML reported Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line with expectations, down 27% QoQ and down 21% YoY.
- Guided Q224 for €5.95 billion, down ~23% YoY. This implies H224 will have to be much stronger than H124 in order to maintain full year 2024 guidance of flat YoY
- New order intake was €3.6 billion, down significantly from the €9.2 billion in the prior quarter, and challenging the narrative of a strong growth year in 2025
7. Novatek (3034.TT): 2Q24F Keeps Growing, and 3Q24F Shall Grow Significantly.
- Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)‘s sales in 1Q24 showed a 6.2% YoY growth, implying a positive growth outlook for 2024F compared to 2023.
- Looking ahead to 2Q24F forecasts, the anticipated orders from United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) could have a positive impact on Novatek’s 1Q24 sales.
- A significant growth is expected after 2Q24, particularly following Novatek’s qualification for the Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16.
