Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jan 26, 2025

By January 26, 2025 January 30th, 2025 No Comments
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Introducing: Trumponomics

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

  • Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
  • The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
  • Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Trump’s Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY

By David Mudd

  • Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.
  • Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China. 
  • China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump’s first term.

3. Rebuilding The US Physical Economy

By The Bid, The Bid

  • The US infrastructure is in need of billions of dollars in investments to bring it up to speed, highlighted by the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Investment Economy and Jobs act.
  • There is a focus on reshoring and revitalizing the US economy through infrastructure investments, with private companies playing a significant role in funding major projects.
  • Demographic trends, such as the rise of the millennial generation, are driving demand for housing and impacting the housing market, with lower interest rates potentially helping to alleviate some of the pressures.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4. Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
  • The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
  • The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.

5. Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.
  • To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it.

6. Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • History doesn’t repeat itself but rhymes. The current market pattern is eerily similar to the 1980–1981 period when Ronald Reagan first won when the market made an intermediate-term top. 
  • Reagan entered the White House amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm but the stock market ran into technical and economic headwinds.
  • In 1980, the market faced the challenge of a highly hawkish Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market faces the challenge of elevated valuation and expectations.

7. Details of the Major Changes in Delisting Rules in Korea

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 21 January, the FSC announced the full details of the major changes in the delisting rules in Korea, which should help to reduce the “Korea Discount.”
  • This is one of the biggest ever changes to delisting rules in Korea in the past 30 years.
  • These changes will be especially important among investors that are interested in small caps in Korea. 

8. Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
  • They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
  • Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


9. Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]

By Web3 Breakdowns, Web3 Breakdowns

  • 2024 was a great year for risk assets, with the S&P up 23% and Bitcoin up 150%
  • The year started with concerns about a recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, but ended with market consensus aligning and a strong performance
  • The narrative heading into 2025 includes concerns about Trump’s impact on deregulation and tariffs, as well as potential inflation from immigration policies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. Reasons To Underweight China

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
  • Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
  • Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.