This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025
- Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
- Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
- BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.
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2. Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds
- Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
- The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
- Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
- Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
- This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
- Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.
4. President Yoon’s Approval Ratings Surges to 47%, Gets Arrested, and Declares Rampant Election Fraud
- It has been another wild day in South Korea as Yoon Suk-Yeol became the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested.
- A recent local poll released on 14 January showed that President Yoon’s approval rating surged to 46.6%.
- President Yoon released a letter to the Korean people. The heart of the letter is about the rampant election fraud in Korea and the desperate need to restore election integrity.
5. Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)
- Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
- Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
- This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.
6. Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0
- We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
- Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
- Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.
7. Headwinds, Tailwinds in 2025
- This year overweight US dollar, underweight European, Malaysian, Korean and Indonesian sovereign bonds. In 2024 68.9% of our 43 investment recommendation and forecasts made money.
- The key headwinds are dollar strength , Trump’s trade war, the slower monetary policy easing, China, Europe and US valuations.
- Tailwinds include, the strength of the US economy, Trump’s pro-business domestic policy agenda, tame energy prices, India, conflict resolutions and a lighter global election cycle.
8. The Launch of the KRX TMI (Total Market Index) – Korea’s TOPIX Index
- Korea Exchange disclosed the new KRX TMI (Total Market Index) on 13 January. This is a market index that consists of eligible stocks in the entire KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.
- The KRX TMI index is similar to Japan’s TOPIX index. The KRX TMI index is calculated by adopting a free-float market capitalization weighting method.
- We provide a list of 20 companies in KOSDAQ that could benefit from the launch of the KRX TMI index.
9. 69.8% Of Our 2024 Calls Made Money
- We are optimistic about the outlook for global growth and markets in 2025, despite anticipating turbulence driven by Trump’s policies. Stay overweight US markets, US dollar and Bitcoin. Underweight China.
- Our differentiated business cycle framework investing worked. Of the 43 calls made, on global markets and eleven countries/regions, 69.8% were accurate+ in 2024.
- We predicted the US soft landing , Trump’s re-election, a strong dollar, the US & bitcoin rallies, the European slowdown and TAIX outperformance.
10. Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?
- The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
- The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
- Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.