This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008
- Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management
- Kevin’s background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets
- Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment
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2. Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?
- Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates
- The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market
- Fed Chairman Powell’s actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect
- If the Fed convinces the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount .
- 10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest premium to 2yr.
- Funding will keep 10yr Treasuriies elevated unless a slowdown in the economy is evident, but the 10yr budget bill now looks like it will produce a budget deficit in 2026-27.
4. What the Surge in Gold Tells Us About the Stock Market
- The gold bull is just starting, with strong upside potential in the coming investment cycle.
- The market is undergoing a regime shift. Gold will be useful to hedge against bond weakness in the coming cycle, which will see small-caps dominate large-caps and value dominate growth.
- Gold mining stocks present a long-term opportunity, but may be vulnerable to a short-term setback.
5. Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!
- Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.
- Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.
- Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.
6. India & Trump’s Trade War
- Buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, and we are structurally long Indian equities.
- However the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s global trade war and China has diminished. Two reasons.
- First, India’s disappointing economic performance. Second, Trading Post’s expectations that the trade war will be over sooner than consensus is expecting and that a US-China trade deal will be struck.
7. The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown
- Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.
Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.
Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.
8. US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine
- The misinterpretation of the recent Trump/Putin phone conversation by the commentariat partly explains why markets are currently ahead of the curve on Russia/Ukraine issues.
- As long as European leaders continue to deny the state of transatlantic relations, the situation remains uncertain.
- Given the current circumstances, investors should proceed with caution, keeping in mind the principle of ‘caveat emptor’ (buyer beware).
9. Charting India’s Path in an Evolving World
- India’s economic future continues to be hotly debated, not least because of Prime Minister Modi’s vision to make it a developed economy by 2047.
- Unfortunately, economic trends haven’t played along. The stellar post-pandemic growth recovery has given way to an abrupt slowdown, led by falling private consumption growth.
- We chat with eminent Indian scholar and noted journalist, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, on the opportunities and challenges facing India.
10. India – Stay Overweight But Hedge
- Maintain structural overweight on Indian equities but hedge against rupee weakness
- While buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s global trade war and China has diminished.
- That said fundamentals – corporate and bank balance sheets – are strong, the corporate profit cycle is in upswing and the real cost of capital is within the normal range.
