This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
- Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.
- Levels remain healthy and redundancies are low despite falling vacancies, suggesting resilience survives rather than thrives. Rapid wage growth is more problematic.
- Dovish hopes that excesses will break soon, aided by destructive US trade policy, keep the BoE on track to cut in May. Sterling strength also adds disinflationary space.
2. UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation
- A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.
- Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.
- Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.
3. US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds
- Donald Trump’s recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.
- However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.
- This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.
4. A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War
- No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
- Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
- However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.
5. Atkins to Accelerate the Delisting of Chinese Stocks From the US Stock Exchanges in 2025/2026?
- Paul Atkins, the new head of U.S. SEC could accelerate the delisting of Chinese stocks from the U.S. stock exchanges.
- There are about 280 companies from mainland China that are listed in the U.S. with a combined market cap of about $880 billion.
- There could be two major reasons to accelerate this delisting (require Chinese companies to abide by US GAAP accounting and fully delist Chinese companies with ties to Chinese military).
6. Steno Signals #193 – The USD Reset Is Underway
- Morning from Copenhagen!It’s been a remarkable week—and weekend—in policy space.
- On Friday, the White House released a list of exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs (including, for example, semiconductors).
- Then, on Sunday, Trump “tweeted” that no exemptions were made, leaving Howard Lutnick once again to explain what was actually going on.
7. US Bear Market: BETWEEN DENIAL AND ANGER THERE IS “HOPE”
- The S&P bounced off its support level of 4800 and is now consolidating on investor hopes that the worst is over as volatility declines.
- As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
- As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
8. Trump’s End Game
- Trading Post’s top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
- Trump’s ultimate objectives are to secure fairer trading terms and stimulate inward investment—and the strategy appears to be gaining traction.
- Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.
9. Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook
- Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy.
- From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.
- Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.
10. Estimating Downside Risk
- The S&P 500 is deeply oversold by historical standards, but it remains an open question of whether stock prices will decline further after a short-term bounce.
- Our estimate of S&P 500 downside is 3900–4500 without a recession, with strong technical support at 4800. Downside risk with a recession is 3300-3800.
- Current readings indicate elevated recession risk based on consensus policy expectations, which can change at any time.
