1. Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics
- Today after the close with Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) reporting earnings, M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced a Partial Tender Offer to buy 81.21-83.31mm shares of Benefit One at ¥1600/share.
- That cleans out Pasona, which owns 81.21mm shares. Or does it… Shareholder structure dynamics and the problems they cause later bear some detailed examination.
- This one is going to be a fun special sit.
2. FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out
- The FRTIB has decided to switch its benchmark for the International Stock Index Investment Fund from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index.
- With around US$68bn invested in the I Fund, this will set off churn among the constituent stocks in 2024. One-way trade is around US$28bn with DM outflows and EM inflows.
- The benchmark shift could be done over a 4 month period with higher trading during periods where liquidity opportunities arise.
3. I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie
- Today, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) reported H1 earnings. Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) reported yesterday.
- Mizuho raised full-year NP guidance by ~5%, passing the Street. SMFG raised its FY NP guidance 12.2%, also beating the Street. MUFG didn’t raise guidance but H1 saw 71% progress.
- Today, SMFG raised its div, and both SMFG (¥150bn) and MUFG (¥400bn) announced buybacks. Cross-holding unwind progress is waaay lower than we’d like, but capital stronger as a result.
4. Pasona: The Wrong Price
- As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
- That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
- Though we don’t know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future.
5. Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks
- Persol Holdings, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings, Welcia Holdings, GMO Payment Gateway, CyberAgent Inc, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, NGK Insulators, Lixil Group, Kurita Water Industries and Keio Corp have underperformed the Nikkei 225 recently.
- The underperformance could lead to selling from global passive trackers and liquidity events on some of the stocks at month-end.
- There has been an increase in short interest on most stocks over the last week as positioning for the liquidity event ramps up.
6. CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December
- With the review period for the December rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) complete, there could be 13 changes for the index.
- We estimate one-way turnover of 1.94% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.98bn. There are a lot of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
- Over the last 6 months, the potential adds and potential deletes have tracked each other and underperformed the index. Positioning has led to outperformance in the last week.
7. STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes
- With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
- With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.
- SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.
8. Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting
- Last week, Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) announced its rights offering on both its H-Shares and its A-Shares, previously mooted on 23 May, and the Circular on 26 June.
- The company applied, got CSRC approval on 5 Nov, announced the issuance on 6 Nov, and shares went ex- on 10 November. It’s probably unneeded, but it’s there.
- The stock is cheap. The company will boost its payout ratio. And it isn’t that “heavy” a deal. The Rights Trading Dynamics may be interesting.
9. Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer
- Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) announced a partial tender offer from M3 Inc (2413 JP) at JPY1,600 per share, a 40.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The transaction facilitates Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s exit. The offer is for a minimum of 81.2 million shares (51.16% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 87.3 million shares (55.00%).
- Irrevocables from Pasona represent a 51.16% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is light vs. historical multiples and share prices.
10. Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow
- It can be considered that the suspension of EOFlow’s trading and, furthermore, the risk of delisting have been completely eliminated at this point.
- EOFlow emphasizes the possibility of circumventing sales of EOPatch by supplying EOPump to a JV in China. The key factors that initially sparked Medtronic’s interest in EOFlow are still valid.
- If CEO Kim fails to repay a stock collateral loan of ₩20B or secure additional loans, approximately 4% of the total issued shares could be sold in the market.
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