Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Mar 23, 2025

1. Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Tencent (700 HK) / Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
• Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.
• Tencent‘s significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.

2. Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
• As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
• The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.

3. Tencent Earnings: Implied Vs Realized Price Changes and a Post Earnings Pattern

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• We take a detailed look at the implied earnings move priced into Tencent options compared to historical outcomes.
• Post-Earnings price movements are analyzed to assess directional tendencies and magnitude based on earnings beats and misses.
• An interesting post-earnings pattern emerges, with an options strategy outlined.

4. China Mobile (941 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

• China Mobile (941 HK) / China Mobile (600941 CH) will release 2024 results on Thursday 20 March 2025. 
• Historically, the stock shows minimal post-earnings volatility, with rare exceptions. Options markets project moderate movement. Opportunities exist for investors with strong directional conviction.
• Given China Mobile’s recent history of dividend increases and strong stock performance, a significant dividend boost is possible.

5. Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): 2024 Earnings, Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Ping An Insurance (2318 HK / 601318 CH) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
• Option markets are currently pricing in a significantly larger post-announcement price move than historical patterns would suggest.
• Two trade examples for calendar spreads, taking advantage of elevated near-term implied volatility, are presented.

6. NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What’s Next?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.
• From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.
• We conclude that it’s possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start – for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.

7. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / IVs Subdued as Options Markets See Low Risk of U.S. Trade Tension Blowup.

By Sankalp Singh, AceGama Advisors

• IVs remain subdued, trading sub-12% levels, as Option Markets expect low impact from U.S.-trade tensions. Risk premia compresses in spite of upcoming FOMC event risk. 
• Vol term-structure has moved further into Contango. Realized Vol continues to underperform.
• Vol-Surface is exhibiting interesting behaviour as Skew has compressed while Smile has extended. 

8. Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Meituan (3690 HK) is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.
• The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.
• Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.

9. Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
• If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
• The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.

10. NIKE Q3 Earnings: Options Market Expectations and Post-Earnings Trends

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• A detailed analysis of the earnings implied jump in Nike options compared to historical outcomes.
• Post-Earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies and magnitude based on beats and misses.
• The third quarter stands out for the size of earnings-day moves, while earnings misses have shown a distinct post-earnings performance trend.