This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance
- The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.
- The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.
- As posted by Brian Freitas there has been 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.
2. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 278B Won Shares Block Deal Sale
- As reported by Douglas Kim, Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance plan to sell shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been in a flat, bottoming behavior, since November 2024. We have previously discussed the possibility that the stock may start to rally.
- At the moment the stock has been down for 3 weeks in a row, our model is indicating a WEEKLY oversold condition that may trigger a (short-term) rally.
3. AIA Group (1299 HK) Results Day: Expected Price Swings and Dividend Boost
- AIA Group (1299 HK) is set to announce its 2024 Annual Results on 14 March 2025, 09:00 am HK Time.
- AIA Group (1299 HK) has historically experienced volatile trading during results days, with a median move of +/- 4.2%, considerably higher than typical daily movements.
- AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) will announce its final dividend. With a history of increases, a divided raise can be expected.
4. Bottom Fishing: SoftBank (9984 JP) Looks Attractive After -18% Drop
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) has lost nearly 18% of its stock value since February 7th. The stock has been falling for 4 weeks, our model indicates a very oversold condition.
- SoftBank’s has a number of strategic investments and initiatives that make it an attractive investment.
- Below, we outline key fundamental factors that align with our quantitative model’s view, suggesting the stock is oversold and could be a compelling buy at its current price.
5. JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings Recap: Intra-Day Swing of 7.3%.
- JD.com (9618 HK) Q4 2024 earnings significantly exceeded analyst expectations with revenue reaching RMB 347 billion (13.4% YoY increase).
- The stock experienced a volatile two-day reaction, rising 8.4% on March 6 followed by a 5.0% decline on March 7, resulting in a net gain of 3.03%.
- Options strategies including straddles, strangles, and call calendar spreads were actively traded ahead of earnings with potential intraday profitability. Longer dated implied volatility decreased following the announcement.
6. Dividends, Volatility, and Profits: HSI and HSCEI Heavyweights Reveal Results, 17 – 21 March
- Over a dozen Hang Seng Index companies (31% of index weight) report next week, along with significant portions of HSCEI (38%) and Hang Seng TECH Index (32%) components.
- The four index heavy-weights Xiaomi Corp, Tencent, China Mobile, and Meituan all report next week.
- Weekly options expiring March 21 provide targeted instruments for traders looking to capitalize on earnings-related price movements.
7. HSI Outpaces SPX — Structural Break or Head Fake? Strategies for Hedging
- HSI has surged past SPX, but past instances of strong outperformance have often preceded reversals. We examine key historical trends.
- The YTD divergence between HSI and SPX calls into question whether this is another temporary rally or the start of a new trend.
- We highlight some key hedging strategies to manage risk in this evolving market dynamic.
8. Xiaomi Earnings: Option Market Expectations, Past Performance and Hedge Opportunities
- Xiaomi earnings are upcoming. We analyze what the options market is pricing and examine historical trends and tendencies.
- Historical earnings reactions show notable differences across quarters, with Q4 standing out for its downside risk.
- We outline a tactical hedge that minimizes jump risk while taking advantage of extended implied volatility.
9. The Week Ahead in Options – 10 March
- US steel and aluminum tariffs (effective 12 March US time) will take effect on March 13 across the Asia-Pacific region. Volatility can be expected in Japan, South Korea, India, China.
- Major quarterly derivatives expirations will occur on March 13 in Japan (Nikkei 225, TOPIX, Stocks), South Korea (KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, Stocks), and India (BSE Stock Futures and Options).
- Earnings announcements for AIA Group (1299 HK) and Li Auto (2015 HK/LI US) are scheduled for March 14, while India’s markets will be closed that day for the Holi holiday.
10. Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump
- The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. Our model suggests it has entered a price zone where a reversal is highly likely.
- Thursday’s closing low of 19,225 falls within a price zone where our WEEKLY NDX model assigns a 97% probability of reversal. It’s clearly in the tail area and deeply oversold.
- When the Nasdaq 100 declines for 4 consecutive weeks, our time model assigns a 98% probability of reversal based on the current historical pattern.
