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China Archives | Page 75 of 154 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief China: PCCW Ltd, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Miniso, Tencent, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd., Kingsoft Cloud, Pan Brothers, Chipotle Mexican Grill and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August
  • HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022
  • Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts
  • Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading
  • China Tourism Group A/H Listing – Updates from Revised Filing and Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook
  • Kingsoft Cloud: Thoughts on HK Dual Primary Listing
  • Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments

Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Companies (Amendment) Act 2021 of the Cayman Islands (Amendment Act), which will come into force on 31 August 2022, will abolish the current ‘headcount test’.
  • Those companies incorporated in the Cayman Islands, and subject to a members’ Scheme of Arrangement, were previously required to satisfy the headcount test under section 86 of the Companies Act.
  • This development clarifies previous uncertainty/ambiguity which could arise, with ‘take private’ deals of Cayman-incorporated, Hong Kong-listed companies, where a Scheme is the favoured privatisation path.

HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.
  • A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.
  • We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Blue Orca issued a damning short-seller report on Miniso (MNSO US) on the 25th of July 2022, stating that the company’s asset-light and high-margin franchise business is mostly a lie.
  • Miniso responded rather quickly but its response lacks evidence and does not do anything to contradict the facts presented by the short seller.
  • Thus, it is Miniso’s word against Blue Ocra’s facts and it is quite obvious which side investors should take.

Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for August batch. More games were approved in August compared to July and June.
  • Pace of China game approval continued to pick up albeit at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease will be under increasing pressure as the duo continue to score zero in August, making it the fourth time with no games approved since resumption . 

China Tourism Group A/H Listing – Updates from Revised Filing and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) now aims to raise US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
  • In this note, we will talk about the recent updates from its revised filings and revisit valuations.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.
  • Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.
  • We are concerned about WuXi AppTec’s performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it’s hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.

Kingsoft Cloud: Thoughts on HK Dual Primary Listing

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kingsoft Cloud (KC US) is the largest independent cloud service provider in China in terms of revenue in 2021 and its clientele includes the likes of ByteDance and Xiaomi.
  • KC is listed in NASDAQ and has filed for a dual primary listing on HKEx and has not disclosed the amount that it plans to raise from the stock issuance.
  • We are broadly positive on the company’s growth prospects and discuss the details below.

Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill has been in the news for an amazing rebound in its stock price after delivering a robust set of results surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of earnings.
  • The in-restaurant sales increased while digital sales were also up and the management added 51 new restaurants in 42 locations.
  • We provide the stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

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Daily Brief China: SenseTime Group, Yashili International Holdings, Meituan, China Vast Industrial Urban Development, Tencent, China Three Gorges Renewables, Evergrande, Lepu Medical Technology A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next
  • Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Set for 16 August
  • Meituan – Regulators Now Probing on Food Safety; Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Is Not Over Yet
  • The Cayman Islands to Remove the Headcount Test on 31 August
  • China Internet Weekly (1Aug2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD Logistics, MissFresh
  • China Utilities: Long China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH), Short Huaneng Power Int (600011 CH)
  • Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, China Vanke, Indika Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  • Pre-IPO Lepu Medical Technology – Lepu Is in a Difficult Position and Turning It Around Takes Time

SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next

By Brian Freitas

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK) stock has been crushed following the lock-up expiry at the end of June with the stock now trading 40% below the IPO price.
  • The company has recently bought back stock providing some support. More importantly, SenseTime Group (20 HK) was included in Southbound Stock Connect on 29 July.
  • We expect a big increase in the free float adjustment factor (FAF) in the Hang Seng Indexes at the September rebalance that will provide some much needed passive inflows.

Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Set for 16 August

By Arun George

  • The approval by Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) independent shareholders of the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM is a pre-condition to the HK$1.20 per share privatisation proposal.
  • Shareholders will pass the ordinary resolutions at the EGM so that they can vote on the attractive privatisation proposal. The key risk is timing around the satisfaction of the pre-conditions.
  • China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)’s offer remains attractive in the context of multiples and historical share prices. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 10.1%.

Meituan – Regulators Now Probing on Food Safety; Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Is Not Over Yet

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported that Meituan (3690 HK)  Ele.me and other food delivery platforms were summoned over food safety problems as well as price war among them.
  • Food delivery platforms are ordered to strictly follow food safety management responsibilities and also prevent price wars that disrupt the market order.
  • Though the anti-trust fine of RMB3.44bn was thought to be the end of an almost year long regulatory crackdown on Meituan, it seems that this is far from over.

The Cayman Islands to Remove the Headcount Test on 31 August

By Arun George

  • After a prolonged delay, the Cayman Islands legislative gazette was published on 29 July, which stated that the amended Cayman Islands Act would come into force on 31 August. 
  • The Act will remove the headcount test for schemes, eliminating a layer of uncertainty for controlling shareholders wishing to privatise listed Cayman-incorporated companies.
  • In light of this development, we look at current active privatisations, past failed privatisations and rumoured transactions which stand to gain a new lease of life from this Act.

China Internet Weekly (1Aug2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD Logistics, MissFresh

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and Huawei launched beta tests for car-hailing platform almost simultaneously.
  • Alibaba begins to disconnect Ant Group to avoid implicating each other.
  • Missfresh dismissed almost all employees in its headquarters in Beijing.

China Utilities: Long China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH), Short Huaneng Power Int (600011 CH)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • A “Long China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH), short Huaneng Power Intl Inc-A (600011 CH)” pair trade should generate good return in China’s utilities sector given the current industry dynamics.
  • The key supporting factors are: CTGR has pure exposure to renewable, faster capacity growth and a stronger balance sheet. They should underpin better earnings quality and outlook relative to HPI.
  • CTGR trades on higher PER and P/B multiples, but these should not be hurdles as they are just reflection of more promising prospects. We expect CTGR’s YTD outperformance to continue.

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, China Vanke, Indika Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO Lepu Medical Technology – Lepu Is in a Difficult Position and Turning It Around Takes Time

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lepu suffered from the negative impact of VBP on drug/medical consumables, and its share price has yet to recover. We are not optimistic about the outlook of the traditional businesses.
  • Lepu’s expansion mainly relies on continuous M&A. Whether these diversified businesses will produce synergies and how much performance they will contribute need to be tested by time and the market.
  • Excessive epitaxial expansion may not be a long-term solution. Lepu needs to focus more on endogenous growth and R&D,which is good for sustainable long-term growth. Such business transformation takes time.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, China Construction Bank H, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office
  • China Banks – Stick with Quality at Attractive Valuations
  • ECM Weekly (31st Jul 2022) – Soosan, WCP, GDRs, Yancoal, Country Garden, Legend Biotech, MEP, PSMC

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

By David Blennerhassett


China Banks – Stick with Quality at Attractive Valuations

By Victor Galliano

  • Chinese banks are out of favour given the China GDP growth concerns and property sector headwinds; yet we see selective opportunities in the stronger, higher return banks
  • Our core picks are unchanged, with the core holding being CCB, and also PSBC; both have healthy credit quality and coverage, double digit ROEs and are attractive on valuations
  • We remain negative on China Minsheng due to its low ROE, poor delinquency and NPL coverage, and its relatively high exposures to real estate relative to its peers

ECM Weekly (31st Jul 2022) – Soosan, WCP, GDRs, Yancoal, Country Garden, Legend Biotech, MEP, PSMC

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • There were no major IPO launches during the week. Soosan will list early next week.
  • There were a number of placements/blocks across the region, including GDR launches for Swiss listing.

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Daily Brief China: Agile Property Holdings, Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai), Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Cryofocus Medtech (康灃生物科技) Pre-IPO: Unimpressive Fundamentals
  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Cryofocus Medtech (康灃生物科技) Pre-IPO: Unimpressive Fundamentals

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Cryofocus Medtech is a China based medical device company with a focus on cryoablation. The company is look to raise $50-100m to list in Hong Kong.
  • We take a quick look at Cryofocus’ key products, including AF cryoablation system and bladder cryoablation system.
  • We think its products are not impressive. Neither does its investor line-ups and management team impress us much.

Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lifestyle International Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Tata Motors Ltd
  4. China South City
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lifestyle International Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Tata Motors Ltd
  4. China South City
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


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Daily Brief China: Luzhou Laojiao Co Ltd A, Pacific Basin Shipping, Growatt Technology, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Beverage: Baijiu – The Most Addictive & Profitable Alcoholic Beverage in This Planet?
  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Continue to Thrive in a Sound Market
  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Impressive Profitability Growth from Riding on Industry Tailwinds
  • Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources
  • Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources

China Beverage: Baijiu – The Most Addictive & Profitable Alcoholic Beverage in This Planet?

By Douglas Kim

  • Baijiu, the most popular liquor in China, is perhaps one of the most addictive and profitable alcoholic beverages in this planet.
  • The focus of this insight is a pair trade (go long on Luzhou Laojiao and go short on Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery).
  • The major reasons for this pair trade include higher sales growth rate and ROE for Luzhou Laojiao as well as capitalize on the recent share weakness of Luzhou vs Jiangsu.

Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Continue to Thrive in a Sound Market

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) had an impressive 1H22 with 204.2% YoY growth in underlying profit. Overall dividend payout ratio of 75% is also ahead of expectations.
  • It covered 58% Handysize days and 64% for Supramax for 2H22, though rates are lower HoH as spot market retreated. However, low costs mean it’s still enjoying very fat margin.  
  • Its 0.96x P/B for FY22 and 0.85x for FY23 look well justified by ROEs of 40.4% and 25.6%. Strong profitability and cash flow will allow for sustained high dividend yield.

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Impressive Profitability Growth from Riding on Industry Tailwinds

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption and energy digitalization. 
  • The firm has seen strong revenue growth on the backdrop of global PV inverter and energy storage industry tailwinds despite the effects of COVID-19.

Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, 21Vianet Group, Country Garden Holdings Co, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Digital Turbine, ABM Investama, Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd, Tencent, Concord Healthcare Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert
  • VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners
  • Country Garden – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Alibaba Health: New Digital Healthcare Policy to Have Less Impact but Tumbling Margins Is Worrying
  • Digital Turbine Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Partnerships With Google & AccuWeather
  • Asia HY Trade Book – July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH) – Potential for Reversals Despite Short-Term Pressure on Performance
  • Tencent (700 HK): Game Industry Decreasing for First Time and Turning to Overseas Market
  • Digital Turbine Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK) Pre-IPO: Accumulated Loss and Cash Burn Cloud Growth Prospects

Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced yesterday that it is seeking to change its listing status in Hong Kong to a primary listing before the end of 2022.
  • With the risk of de-listing from the US, a dual-primary-listing in Hong Kong would allow Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) to smoothly transition all its trading from the US to Hong Kong.
  • In addition, the company could possibly use this opportunity to raise more money from capital markets as it is desperately seeking funding for its loss making ventures.

VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reported that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for 21Vianet Group (VNET US). Considerations are at a preliminary stage.
  • A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   
  • Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&A activity.     

Country Garden – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Shu Hui Woon

We view Country Garden as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company’s projects are geographically spread across China, albeit concentrated in Tier 3 and 4 cities. Demand in lower-tier cities is weak, amid poor market sentiment and strict COVID-19 related measures. Positively, Country Garden has a broad debt maturity profile and access to onshore markets.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on Country Garden is “Negative”, given expectations of a significant decline in contracted sales and weakening credit metrics amid challenging market conditions. The company has substantial exposure to low-tier cities with weak economic fundamentals. Recovery in these cities will likely be much slower than in high-tier cities, especially with pandemic-related disruptions that would further dampen market sentiment. That said, we believe Country Garden maintains a good cash collection rate, has an adequate liquidity buffer and enjoys good access to onshore funding.

Controversies are “Material”, with the escrow account for Country Garden’s Fuzhou projects having been frozen by local authorities due to customer complaints about poor quality. The matter has since been resolved, with the freeze being lifted. However, this may raise concerns over the quality of the company’s projects. In addition, escrow account freezes may impact Country Garden’s liquidity. Hence, we view the ESG Impact on Credit as “Moderately Negative”. 


Alibaba Health: New Digital Healthcare Policy to Have Less Impact but Tumbling Margins Is Worrying

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • On 22nd June, China released a draft rule that would prevent third-party e-commerce platforms from selling drugs directly to consumers online.
  • Alibaba Health’s share price is down more than 10% since the announcement of the draft rule, however, third-party e-commerce platforms accounts for about 10% of Ali Health’s revenues.
  • Pharmaceutical direct sales business has been generating lower GPM compared to JD Health’s direct biz, and the company’s margins have continued to deteriorate during the last 2-years.

Digital Turbine Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Partnerships With Google & AccuWeather

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on the mobile growth platform provider, Digital Turbine.
  • Digital Turbine is now in an expansion mode as evident from its recent results as well as its acquisition-oriented strategy.
  • However, in recent quarters, the investors of Digital Turbine have turned against various technology-focused assets, and its stock price also lost much value.

Asia HY Trade Book – July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH) – Potential for Reversals Despite Short-Term Pressure on Performance

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The main logic of Micro-Tech’s performance growth is import substitution, but the Company is facing some challenges in the short term, such as centralized procurement, pandemic, inflation, etc.
  • Micro-Tech will face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022. Since the whole series of products would be covered by centralized procurement, the valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray.
  • However, there are possibilities for Micro-Tech to achieve a turnaround (with bottom-fishing opportunity) if it could make a breakthrough in internationalization and product innovation. We recommend investors follow Micro-Tech closely.

Tencent (700 HK): Game Industry Decreasing for First Time and Turning to Overseas Market

By Ming Lu

  • Online game sales decreased for the first time in 1H22.
  • The main problem is the unstable policy of the new game license.
  • Big companies like Tencent and NetEase are seeking overseas markets.

Digital Turbine Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Digital Turbine is a major mobile growth platform provider across the globe and is operating in expansion mode as evident from its recent results as well as its acquisition-oriented strategy.
  • However, in recent quarters, the investors of Digital Turbine have turned against various technology-focused assets, and its stock price also lost much value.
  • Digital Turbine recently unveiled a single strategy and a unified corporate brand for its partners and clients.

Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK) Pre-IPO: Accumulated Loss and Cash Burn Cloud Growth Prospects

By Tina Banerjee

  • Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK), the second largest private oncology healthcare company in China, has submitted application proof for an IPO on the HK Stock Exchange in May 2022.  
  • The company has an accumulated loss of RMB1.7 billion during the last three years, with current net debt-to-capital ratio of 170.1%. Its finance cost account for 92.5% of total revenue.
  • Concord has a cash balance of just RMB136 million, which makes it hard to grab the growth opportunities in China’s capital-intensive oncology healthcare services segment.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Eastroc Beverage Group, PC Partner, Legend Biotech Corp, China Education Group, Plus Digital Technologies, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs, Jabil Circuit, Fidelity National Info Serv and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba to Pursue Dual Primary Listing in HK – Impact on Stock Connect, Indices, Etc
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 26th July 2022
  • Chinese GDRs on the SIX Exchange – More Names, Smaller Discounts, Smaller Size, Less Liquidity
  • Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap
  • Legend Biotech Follow-On – A Little Opportunistic. Last Deal Did Well, After a Large Correction
  • China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining Growth Trajectory
  • Plus Digital Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460.HK) – The Potential Disposal of Generic Drug Business and the Outlook
  • Jabil Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Collaborations With SolarEdge, Cardo Systems, & Other Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)
  • Fidelity National Information Services: Initiation of Coverage – Core Processing Business Upside & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

Alibaba to Pursue Dual Primary Listing in HK – Impact on Stock Connect, Indices, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning – 26 July – Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK) issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX.
  • When Alibaba listed in NY, it was on ADRs. When it listed in HK, it was the shares underlying the ADRs but it was a quickie secondary listing.
  • It will now seek a dual primary listing as others have. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible and will slightly improve BABA’s HSI funding trade prospects in future. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 26th July 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flags those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Chinese GDRs on the SIX Exchange – More Names, Smaller Discounts, Smaller Size, Less Liquidity

By Travis Lundy

  • China started mulling an expansion of its Stock Connect relationships in late 2021 with plans to allow GDR issuance in Switzerland and eventually Germany.
  • New GDR issuance rules came into effect in February and companies started planning to issue GDRs in Switzerland in March.
  • The new SIX Listing Rules went into effect 25 July. Two companies priced GDRs on 22 July and two more yesterday. US$1.5bn so far. There are 6 more near-term.

Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • 1H22 was a story of two halves: 1Q22 still showed record profits but 2Q22 got progressively worse. 3Q22 started weak with inventory clearance and Nvidia new GPU launch awaited.
  • Even after paying a fantastic final dividend in June 2022, it is now trading below net cash on the balance sheet.  
  • We estimate net cash on the balance sheet is now 9 HKD vs 7 HKD share price.

Legend Biotech Follow-On – A Little Opportunistic. Last Deal Did Well, After a Large Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US), a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), is planning to raise up to US$250m in its follow-on offering.
  • The company last raised cash in Dec 2021 in a similar sized deal, which ended up doing very well after a sharp share price correction.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining Growth Trajectory

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK) has retreated 23% from recent high with no regulatory and company news. Given its secured earnings growth outlook, we see an opportunity. 
  • We believe drivers are higher enrollment and tuition, further capacity growth, good progress in overseas education and light capex. There are positive developments in these aspects recently. 
  • CEG may return unused share buyback funds to shareholders via dividend, suggesting a potential resumption of payout. At just 5.7x PER for FY23F, its growth prospect is undervalued.

Plus Digital Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Plus Digital Technologies (PDT CH) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Jefferies and Guotai Junan.
  • Plus Digital Technologies provides digitalised sales and marketing and SaaS+ services to its customers to enhance their offline sales and marketing efficiency and drive their offline retail sales. 
  • Its provision of services is supported by its Field Management Ecology System (FMES) platform, which contains a variety of digitalised products with different functionalities to meet customers’ various requirements.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460.HK) – The Potential Disposal of Generic Drug Business and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The disposal of generic drug segment would bring one-time cash flow. Together with the cash on hand, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs (460 HK) is undervalued based on its current market value. 
  • In the context of its innovative drug segment facing long-term losses, and the decreasing profit margins of medical beauty segment due to increasing competition, Sihuan’s prospects are no brighter.
  • Due to the concerns on outlook and its development mode, Sihuan’s upside potential could be lower than expected, and the share price could fluctuate largely. 

Jabil Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Collaborations With SolarEdge, Cardo Systems, & Other Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on diversified manufacturing services and solutions provider, Jabil Inc.
  • The company has maintained a strong diversification strategy which has helped it perform despite a difficult supply chain environment and widely reported shutdowns in China.
  • During the quarter, the company further collaborated with two companies, SolarEdge and Cardo Systems, to expand its supply chain.

Fidelity National Information Services: Initiation of Coverage – Core Processing Business Upside & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on the leading global technology solutions provider to the banking and finance industry – Fidelity National Information.
  • The company’s annual organic growth expectations were all exceeded with a 9% organic top-line growth.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Gotion High-Tech Co Ltd, Gem Co Ltd A, Pop Mart International Group Limited, Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial, Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd-H, Onewo Space-Tech, Honghua Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications
  • Gotion High Tech GDR Listing – Recent GDRs Have Seen Narrowing Discounts
  • GEM Co., Ltd. GDR Listing – Better Discount than Last Two and Ming Yang Has Held Up
  • Pop Mart: Aggressive Overseas Expansion to Hurt Profitability
  • Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial Pre-IPO – Earnings Recovered but Nothing Really Stands Out
  • Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) – The Story May Have Changed
  • Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Lowest Growth, Will Recover in December Quarter, Buy
  • Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the Largest and Still Growing Fast
  • Morning Views Asia: Honghua Group, Tata Steel Thailand

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) currently has a Secondary Listing in Hong Kong and is looking to become dual primary listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
  • The main change will be inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect program where mainland investors will be able to buy the stock.
  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) is capped at 8% in the HSCEI INDEX and is close to 8% of the HSI INDEX, there will be negligible impact on the dividend futures.

Gotion High Tech GDR Listing – Recent GDRs Have Seen Narrowing Discounts

By Clarence Chu

  • Gotion High-Tech Co Ltd (002074 CH) (GHT) is looking to raise US$1bn from its Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC and Haitong International.
  • The shares offered in GHT’s GDR offering ranges between 16.65m – 33.29m GDRs (83.24m – 166.47m A-shares), ranging the deal size between US$499m-US$1bn. 
  • At the top end, in terms of number of GDRs offered, the deal would represent 4.7 days of ADV on the A-share market and 9.6% of current mcap.

GEM Co., Ltd. GDR Listing – Better Discount than Last Two and Ming Yang Has Held Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Gem Co Ltd A (002340 CH) is looking to raise around US$245m in its Swiss GDR listing.
  • Proceeds will be used mainly for overseas expansion, such as the development of the Indonesian Nickel Resource Base and development of its production base and recycling center in Europe.
  • In terms of discount, relative to the most recent two deals, Keda Industrial and Ningbo Shanshan, GEM’s GDRs are offered at a more enticing 11.7-14.2% discount to its A-shares,

Pop Mart: Aggressive Overseas Expansion to Hurt Profitability

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Pop Mart’s share price has lost more than 50% YTD as resurgence of Covid in China has severely impacted the company’s operations including closure of physical stores and robo shops.
  • The company also issued a profit warning last week for 1H2022 that was severely impacted by the spread of Covid-19 as well as business expansion related costs.
  • We expect the company’s aggressive overseas expansion strategy to continue to impact the company’s profitability and there is further downside.

Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial Pre-IPO – Earnings Recovered but Nothing Really Stands Out

By Ethan Aw

  • Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (1317437D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (SPI) is a fruit retail operator in China. According to Frost & Sullivan, it ranked first among all fruit specialty retail operators in China in 2021.
  • However, the firm operates in a highly fragmented industry with low market share of 1.0%, even as the largest player. 

Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) – The Story May Have Changed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pharmaron’s share price plunged after the release of the estimate for 2022 interim results, even dragging down the entire CXO sector, which reflected the attitude of Mr Market.
  • One important reason for low net profit growth is related to the development strategy – Even if Pharmaron achieves  “integration”, its advantage/profit margin could largely shrink due to overcapacity/fierce competition.  
  • Pharmaron can only achieve V-shaped rebound by making breakthroughs in CGT CXO to boost valuations and expectations on outlook rather than pursue the strategy of “integration” as in the past.

Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Lowest Growth, Will Recover in December Quarter, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • We believe Alibaba’s revenue growth rate will reach historical low in 1Q23, but it will recover two quarters later.
  • Alibaba’s stock price fell from HK$300 in October 2020 to HK$100 today.
  • We believe Alibaba has at least an upside of 43%.

Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the Largest and Still Growing Fast

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo Space-Tech (OST) aims to raise around US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK).
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Morning Views Asia: Honghua Group, Tata Steel Thailand

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited, BYD, China Longyuan Power, Alibaba Group, China Resources Medical, CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!
  • BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support
  • China Longyuan (916 HK): A De-Rating Too Excessive
  • China Internet Weekly (25Jul2022): Alibaba, Tencent, NetEase, IQiyi, Miss Fresh
  • China Resources Medical – Hard to Earn High Profits Due to Poor Business Model and Policy Risk
  • Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, CIFI Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Reliance Industries

MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!

By Brian Freitas


BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BYD (1211 HK) is a short on upticks near the gap and physical resistance for a decline to pressure intermediate support at 240 (break expected).
  • Sell volumes spiked on the jolt down with sellers waiting overhead on a secondary bounce attempt.
  • RSI shows a compelling bearish set up after topping at the 70+ sell zone with bear divergence that supports a downside surprise.

China Longyuan (916 HK): A De-Rating Too Excessive

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Share price of China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has been under pressure over the last two weeks due to concern on future offshore wind power project return.
  • We believe the low tariff of Rmb0.19/kWh won by a Huaneng Power Group consortium in Fujian is more an exceptional case and should not be taken as a new normal.
  • China Longyuan’s growth has been well secured by its project pipeline as well as 21GW potential injection from parent. This round of de-rating is just too excessive. 

China Internet Weekly (25Jul2022): Alibaba, Tencent, NetEase, IQiyi, Miss Fresh

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s Freshippo expands to two inland cities, which reflects its success in coastal areas.
  • Online game’s revenue and players decreased for the first time in 14 years.
  • NetEase set up the second game studios in the United States.

China Resources Medical – Hard to Earn High Profits Due to Poor Business Model and Policy Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China Resources Medical has more advantages than ordinary private medical institutions in terms of its State-owned Key Enterprises background, delicacy management, cost reduction and efficiency increase, resources/talents, industrial chain layout.
  • However, due to the policy environment, China Resources Medical just represents “a small area of relatively little risk in a large area that is clearly risky”. 
  • General hospitals have poor business model and profitability. Despite its strength, we are conservative about the outlook of China Resources Medical, which is difficult to achieve a higher valuation.

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, CIFI Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Reliance Industries

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tianqi Lithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, NIFTY50/100, KRX, Tianqi Lithium, Kotak Bank, Emperador

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, NIFTY50/100, KRX, Tianqi Lithium, Kotak Bank, Emperador

By Brian Freitas

  • We have gone through days 1-5 of the review period for the MSCI September rebalance. There are multiple review cutoffs in the coming week.
  • The announcement of the changes to the LQ45/IDX30/IDX80 indices should be made early in the coming week and implemented at the close on 29 July.
  • China had the largest ETF inflows over the last week, while there were outflows from Korea focused ETFs.

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