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China Archives | Page 60 of 154 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Flat Glass, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (15th Jan 2023) – 2022 Performance, 2023 Pipeline, Bilibili, HTHT, China Edu, CDP, Allied
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (15 Jan): WWPKG, Tianyun International, Yeahka, Flat Glass
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.13)- Tigermed, HBM, Brii, Jacobio, Dental Implant, Successful Investors

ECM Weekly (15th Jan 2023) – 2022 Performance, 2023 Pipeline, Bilibili, HTHT, China Edu, CDP, Allied

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
  • Things remain quiet on the IPO front and are likely to remain that way till CNY. Korea was once again the one that set the IPO ball rolling.
  • Placements were a different matter with deal flow pickup up where it left off last week.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (15 Jan): WWPKG, Tianyun International, Yeahka, Flat Glass

By David Blennerhassett


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.13)- Tigermed, HBM, Brii, Jacobio, Dental Implant, Successful Investors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang


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Daily Brief China: Melco International Development, Agile Property Holdings, CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Melco Trading “Cheap” As Macau Opens Up
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 13 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 13 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Jan 2023
  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Jan 2023

Melco Trading “Cheap” As Macau Opens Up

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Macau’s government renewed the concession periods for the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years, the key players are up 86% on average
  • Both Melco International Development (200 HK) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) have gained a little over 100%. 
  • Melco’s NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio – Melco/MCLO – is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early 2017.

Chinese Property Weekly – 13 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 13 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Weekly Wrap – 13 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lippo Karawaci
  2. China SCE
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 13 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lippo Karawaci
  2. China SCE
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief China: Tianneng Power International, Perfect Medical Health, Alibaba Group, China Education Group, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), Lu Daopei Medical Group, Lepu Medical Technology A, CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tianneng (819 HK): EV Battery Play Seeks Swiss Listing
  • Perfect Medical: Reopening in China to Provide a Boost, Rally to Sustain
  • Alibaba Signs Cooperation Agreement With Hangzhou Government
  • China Education Group (839 HK): Solidifying Investment Thesis After Placement
  • EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Follow Up
  • Lu DaoPei Medical Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Lepu Medical Technology (300003.CH) – New Development Mode Changes the Valuation Logic
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, CIFI Holdings, Lippo Karawaci

Tianneng (819 HK): EV Battery Play Seeks Swiss Listing

By David Blennerhassett


Perfect Medical: Reopening in China to Provide a Boost, Rally to Sustain

By Sameer Taneja

  • China ( >20% of revenue ) changing its stance on COVID provides Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) with an opportunity to crystallize its expansion plans there. 
  • The border reopening between HK/China will provide a boost to its HK operations (>70% of revenue). The second half of H1 2023 results reflect an improving revenue trend for HK.
  • The stock trades at 16x/11x FY23e/24e with ~15% of the market cap in cash and a dividend yield of 6.5%/9.5% FY23e/24e (based on ~100% payout ratio). 

Alibaba Signs Cooperation Agreement With Hangzhou Government

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the government of Hangzhou, the eastern China city where the company is headquartered
  • Alibaba and its finance affiliate Ant Group Co. Ltd. have been at the center of the Chinese government’s multi-year crackdown on the internet sector since October 2020.
  • In 2021, Alibaba was fined a record 18.2 billion yuan ($2.6 billion) for monopolistic behavior.

China Education Group (839 HK): Solidifying Investment Thesis After Placement

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Positive response of China Education Group (839 HK)‘s placement indicated a good return of investor appetite to the sector. Its premium multiples stay well justified even after recent rally. 
  • The HK$1.6bn proceeds will reduce gearing to 29.2% (including contract liabilities) from 41.7% with minimal dilution. Narrowing in valuation gap against asking price of targets means more M&A potential. 
  • More funding for expansion of existing campuses, increase in accommodation and the set up of COVID-19 related curriculum will allow CEG to realise higher revenue per student.

EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Follow Up

By Simon Harris

  • On 30th November we proposed a restructure of a bullish FXI US trade
  • Since then FXI US has rallied 12% and implied vols have decreased significantly
  • We evaluate the call ladder that we highlighted and consider what to do next

Lu DaoPei Medical Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Lu Daopei Medical Group (1816743D CH) Lu DaoPei Medical Group is looking to raise around US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners are CITIC Securities, CMB International, and Macquarie.
  • Lu DaoPei Medical Group (LDPM) is a hospital operator focusing on hematology healthcare services.
  • As per F&S, the firm was the largest hematology healthcare services provider in China in terms of 2021 revenue.

Lepu Medical Technology (300003.CH) – New Development Mode Changes the Valuation Logic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • After China reopens and demand for COVID-19 testing drops sharply, Lepu has lost the big driving force of performance growth. The 2022 full year performance may not be optimistic.
  • Lepu Medical Technology A (300003 CH) has begun to focus more on capital operation. As a holding platform, the valuable assets are spun off, which changes the valuation logic.
  • Even if Lepu could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, such development mode would still put pressure/uncertainties on its future performance, leading to lower-than-expected financial results.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, CIFI Holdings, Lippo Karawaci

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Taste Gourmet Group, Binjiang Service Group, China Dongxiang Group Co, Alibaba (ADR), CDP Holdings, Eva Precision Industrial Holdings, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Futu Holdings Ltd, REPT BATTERO Energy, JD.com Inc (ADR) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Taste Gourmet: Management Call on HK/China Reopening Impact
  • Binjiang 3316 HK: More Room to Go, Results in March 2023 The Next Catalyst
  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments
  • Alibaba(Baba.US/9988.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Raise TP for Margin Beat and Topline Recovery
  • CDP Holding Pre-IPO – Sales Have Grown but Continues to Rake in Losses
  • EVA Precision: Updates, Poised For a Rally
  • EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol
  • FUTU(FUTU.US) 4Q22 Preview: Solid Fundamentals Drive Long Term Growth
  • Rept Battero IPO: Intense Competition and Highly Scaled Competitors Stave Off Profits
  • JD(JD.US/9618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Could Happen in C2Q23

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Taste Gourmet: Management Call on HK/China Reopening Impact

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, Kent Wong and CFO and Company Secretary, Gerald Yu. They will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Sameer Taneja. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Friday, 13 January 2023, 14:00 SGT.

About Taste Gourmet

Taste Gourmet Group Limited (8371 HK) is a Hong Kong based restaurant group offering a variety of cuisines under a portfolio of brands to a diversified customer base. Since the opening of its first restaurant in 2007, the group owned and operated a total of 34 restaurants offering Vietnamese, Japanese, Chinese, Western and Drink under 14 brands, comprising 11 self-owned brands such as La’taste Vietnamese Cuisine, Dab-Pa Peking & Szechuan Cuisine, Dab-Pa Peking & Szechuan Bistro, Dab-pa Modern Chinese Cuisine, Urawa Japanese Restaurant, Nabe Urawa, Rakuraku Ramen, Wasyohuya Yamaichi, Moments Together, Yakiniku Guu, San-Kinn; 3 licensed brands known as Parkview, Takano Ramen and Tirpse; and 1 joint venture brand known as Xianghui. 

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.


Binjiang 3316 HK: More Room to Go, Results in March 2023 The Next Catalyst

By Sameer Taneja

  • Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY22/23e with 32% of the market cap in net cash and a dividend yield of 5%/6.4% FY22e/23e (assuming a 60% payout). 
  • The company has asserted it will maintain its payout ratio at 60% and conserve cash for M&A. Its approach will be conservative and involve lengthy due diligence.
  • With an improving market environment and good results around the corner in March, we believe a rally to 30 HKD/share is within the realm of possibility.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) has revived.  
  • We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. 
  • Encouraging recent developments at Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. 

Alibaba(Baba.US/9988.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Raise TP for Margin Beat and Topline Recovery

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect BABA’s  revenue in C4Q22 to be in line with cons., non-GAAP net income to beat cons. by 6%, supported by cost reduction in Freshippo, Taocaicai and Taobao Deal. 
  • Affected by logistics disruption and rising infections, we estimate BABA’s GMV and local consumer service in C4Q22 to decelerate compared to C3Q22. Both segments are to recover in C1Q23.
  • We raise TP from US$110 to US$130 to reflect upsides from rebound of discretionary demand, slowing Douyin eCommerce growth, and easing regulatory environment. Our TP implies 13x PE in FY2024.

CDP Holding Pre-IPO – Sales Have Grown but Continues to Rake in Losses

By Clarence Chu

  • CDP Holdings (1782198D CH) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • CDP Holding (CDP) is a human capital management (HCM) service provider.
  • As per CIC, CDP was the No. 1 HCM SaaS+ platform in China in terms of revenue generated from HCM SaaS+ services in 2021.

EVA Precision: Updates, Poised For a Rally

By Sameer Taneja

  • Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) has come off its lows but still trades at an attractive  7.8x/5x PE FY22e/23e and a dividend yield of 3.8%/5.9% FY22e/23e (assuming 30% payout).
  • The auto business should be propelled forward by orders from EV stalwarts, BYD, Nio, Tesla, etc. We expect the auto business (30% of revenue) to grow 50% in 2023.
  • Another two catalysts we look forward to are the split of the auto business to unlock value and the completion of the buyback announced by the company in 2022.

EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down
  • US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession
  • We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread

FUTU(FUTU.US) 4Q22 Preview: Solid Fundamentals Drive Long Term Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect FUTU to post C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.4% and 16.0% above consensus, driven by the improved turnover rate in HKEX and the rising interest rate. 
  • We believe the recent regulation measures has little impact on FUTU’s adjusted expectations now widely held by investors. We expect revenue growth to reaccelerate at 37%/31% YoY in 4Q22/2023.
  • Maintain BUY to FUTU and raise TP by US$1 to US$51.

Rept Battero IPO: Intense Competition and Highly Scaled Competitors Stave Off Profits

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Rept Battero is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer focusing on lithium-ion EV battery products and ESS battery products. The company has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • The company had recorded strong growth over all its battery segments and was the fastest growing battery manufacturer among top 10 lithium-ion battery manufacturers in China.
  • However, we find the company’s inability to generate profits at gross profit level concerning.

JD(JD.US/9618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Could Happen in C2Q23

By Shawn Yang

  • In C4Q22, we expect JD’s total revenue to grow 8% YoY, largely in line with cons. Non-GAAP net margin is expected to reach 2.0%, up 0.7ppt YoY.
  • We estimate JD’s GMV growth in C4Q22 to be ~7% YoY, slightly slower than C3Q22 due to logistics disruption in October and November.
  • Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$70.0 due to for acceleration in top line as well as margin improvement. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.

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Daily Brief China: Swire Pacific (A), Huazhu Group, China Internet Investment Finance Holdings, Xiabuxiabu Catering Mgt Chn Hldgs, China Education Group, Alibaba (ADR), Sunac China Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening
  • H World (HTHT) Follow-On Offering – A More Genuine Need
  • Bubble Warning: China Internet Investment (810 HK) Suspended
  • Xiabuxiabu (520 HK): GA Clean-Up Trade Not a Concern
  • China Education Group (CEG) Completed the Placement for Potential M&As
  • Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Sunny Optical

StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening

By David Blennerhassett

  • Retailers /hoteliers will welcome the return of Chinese travellers, with ~US$250bn in annual spending. That should bode well for mall operators like Swire Properties and, in turn, Swire Pacific.
  • Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

H World (HTHT) Follow-On Offering – A More Genuine Need

By Sumeet Singh

  • H World Group (HTHT US) aims to raise around US$260m via a follow-on ADS offering.
  • The company plans to use the proceeds mostly for investment. This will be the first deal by the company post its H-share listing in 2020.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

Bubble Warning: China Internet Investment (810 HK) Suspended

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Internet Investment Finance Holdings (810 HK) (CII), an investment manager, is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
  • CII has thrice responded to unusual price action in its share price in the past four months. Shares are up a staggering ~1,000% in the past six months.
  • This insight provides some background information on CII. Trading at 64x book value, this is one avoidable company. 

Xiabuxiabu (520 HK): GA Clean-Up Trade Not a Concern

By Eric Chen

  • Company’s second largest shareholder General Atlantic sold out entire holdings at 5.9% to 6.4% discount to Monday close. 
  • The placement reflected mainly General Atlantic’s attempt to time market to recoup a 10-year investment instead of any negative read of company fundamentals, in our view.
  • Recent newsflow continues pointing to steady recovery in all business lines of Xiabu group.  Its valuation discount relative to peers  has not captured strong turnaround prospects. Sector top pick. 

China Education Group (CEG) Completed the Placement for Potential M&As

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • China Education Group (CEG) completed the placement of HKD1.61bn on Jan 9.
  • CEG used to do 2-3 M&As per year and had a decent track record.
  • CEG also has chances to acquire public companies or their assets.

Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. 
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Sunny Optical

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Bilibili Inc, China Education Group, Hainan Meilan International Airport, Ant Financial Services Group, Alibaba Group, Alibaba (ADR), Modern Dental Group, Melco Resorts & Entertainment and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bilibili Follow-On Offering – Seems Opportunistic
  • China Education Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Strong but past Deals Were Mixed
  • Meilan Airport (357 HK): A Strategic Asset to Ride on Hainan DFS Investment Theme
  • Ant Group – Headlines Overwhelmingly Positive & Hides Micro Loans Business’ Value
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Still Significant Upside After Surging
  • Aequitas 2022 IPOs and Placements Performance Review – From the Busiest Year to the Slowest Year
  • Modern Dental Group (3600.HK)- 2023 Harsh Reality Is Hard to Avoid, but Short-Term Rally Is Possible
  • Bilibili Follow-On Offering: Limited Upside
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Greentown China, Melco Resorts & Entertainment

Bilibili Follow-On Offering – Seems Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  aims to raise around US$400m via a follow-on ADS offering.
  • The company plans to use most of the proceeds to redeem its 2026 notes.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

China Education Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Strong but past Deals Were Mixed

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Education Group (839 HK) is looking to raise up to US$209m in its top-up placement. 
  • This will be the fourth placement by the group since its listing in 2017, we have earlier looked at the past three placements as well.
  • In this note, we will look  at the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): A Strategic Asset to Ride on Hainan DFS Investment Theme

By Eric Chen

  • Meilan Airport is both a strategic asset and a key beneficiary in China’s blueprint for Hainan. The hub holds an indispensable yet underappreciated position in Hainan’s DFS market.
  • While jump in depreciation and plunging passenger traffic in 2022 dealt heavy blow to the company, they also pave the way for a strong turnaround as re-opening revives travel demand.
  • We expect the company’s net profit to reach RMB600 million in 2023 and further double to RMB1.2 billion by 2025, driving share price to double in three years.

Ant Group – Headlines Overwhelmingly Positive & Hides Micro Loans Business’ Value

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • News headlines on Ant Group are overwhelmingly positive these days and they try to hide the fact that the consumer finance business is worth just 1/2 of last year’s value.
  • We think the main reason why markets are so optimistic these days is that they seem to think that regulatory crackdowns on the platform economy are finally over.
  • With Jack Ma surrendering control of Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) just a few days ago, could anybody say that regulatory pressure is really over?

Alibaba (9988 HK): Still Significant Upside After Surging

By Ming Lu

  • A state-owned company invested in Ant Group which was also founded by Jack Ma.
  • We believe both the revenue growth rate and the operating margin will rise in following quarters.
  • We believe the stock price still has significant upside even after the surge in past four trading days.

Aequitas 2022 IPOs and Placements Performance Review – From the Busiest Year to the Slowest Year

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2022 marked our seventh year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. 2022 was rather quiet ending with us covering one of the lowest number of IPOs and placements.
  • We ended 2022 with an accuracy rate of 74.6% across 55 IPOs that we covered and 70.5% across 78 placements. 
  • For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK)- 2023 Harsh Reality Is Hard to Avoid, but Short-Term Rally Is Possible

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Modern Dental Group (MDG) disclosed selected unaudited operational data for 22Q1-Q3. The negative trend on performance would continue to 22Q4. The overall 2022 performance of MDG would show a negative growth.
  • We may face a situation where both domestic and external demand would weaken in 2023. MDG’s overseas revenue is expected to see a bigger YoY decline than domestic revenue.
  • There would be strong expectations but weak realities in 2023Q1-Q2, during which MDG’s share price could rally in short term, but it’s not based on the improvement of its fundamentals.

Bilibili Follow-On Offering: Limited Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Bilibili announced a follow-on equity offering of 15.34m ADS priced at $26.65 per ADS partially in exchange for convertible senior notes due 2026 (US$384.8m) and to replenish its cash reserves.
  • Each ADS represents one ordinary share and new equity offering of 15.34m shares will account for approx. 3.7% of the company’s extended share capital post follow-on offering.
  • Bilibili Inc (BILI US) ADS dropped 5.76% following the announcement of the follow-on offering and we believe there is limited upside.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Greentown China, Melco Resorts & Entertainment

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Ant Financial Services Group, Alibaba Group, Youlife International Holdings, Yanlord Land, Perfect Group Corp Ltd, Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ant Group: Shareholder Restructuring Announced and the Lack of IPO Plan Are Negatives Surprise
  • China Internet Weekly (9Jan2023): Ant Group, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, China Literature
  • Youlife International Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: Sands China, SJM Holdings, Yanlord Land
  • Perfectly Imperfect
  • Ant Group Completed Equity Structure Adjustment
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH)- Junshi Has Changed Its Story from Tumor to COVID-19?

Ant Group: Shareholder Restructuring Announced and the Lack of IPO Plan Are Negatives Surprise

By Victor Galliano

  • The announced restructuring of Ant Group holding companies will block founder Jack Ma from achieving majority voting on the board following the implementation of the holdcos adjustment
  • The majority of board directors will be “independent” post the holdco restructuring and they are likely to drive a more social policy focused agenda, as the 2021 sustainability report suggests
  • We see these developments, and especially the lack of IPO plan, to be negative for non-government aligned Ant Group shareholders, such as the international private equity groups and especially Alibaba

China Internet Weekly (9Jan2023): Ant Group, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, China Literature

By Ming Lu

  • A state-owned company invested in Ant Group, which boosted Alibaba’s stock price.
  • Tencent obtained five new game licenses in December, three of which are imported games.
  • China Literature’s daily active users increased by 80% in 2022 and reached the historical high.

Youlife International Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Youlife International Holdings (1759732D CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Macquarie and CCB International. 
  • Youlife International is a blue-collar lifetime service platform in China. It assists blue-collar talent with upskilling and lifetime career development. 
  • According to CIC, Youlife ranked first among all blue-collar lifetime service platforms in China in terms of revenue generated from blue-collar lifetime services in 2021. 

Morning Views Asia: Sands China, SJM Holdings, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Perfectly Imperfect

By subSPAC

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning Applications are all the rage, primarily thanks to the likes of OpenAI’s ChatGPT being used for text and Dall-E being used to generate digital images.
  • ChatGPT’s popularity has soared, reaching a user base of 1 million users in 5 days, and OpenAI itself is benefiting from the surge in users, now valued at $29 Billion.
  • Investors are already looking for the next wave of AI products that can make a big splash and potentially disrupt legacy industries. 

Ant Group Completed Equity Structure Adjustment

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • CBIRC approved the capital replenishment plan of RMB10.5bn of Ant CFC on Dec 30, 2022
  • Under the regulatory guidance, Ant Group needs to complete a multifaceted rectification plan
  • After the fund raising, Ant Group’s next step is to obtain FHC license and credit bureau license

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH)- Junshi Has Changed Its Story from Tumor to COVID-19?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Junshi once generated sales and profits in scale, but lost money again. Its story suddenly changed from cancer drugs to COVID-19. We have lost sight of its development direction.
  • Junshi’s commercialization history has lost its reference value for confirming the outlook. The calculation of peak sales doesn’t make much sense, because they cannot help Junshi turn losses into profits.
  • The current market value still has too much “bubble”, and COVID-19 drug is a major “interference” to the valuation. We analyzed our thoughts on future valuation by excluding COVID-19 projects.  

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Daily Brief China: Meituan, Li Auto, Pinduoduo, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Alibaba (ADR), Acotec Scientific Holdings, Gushengtang and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan 4Q Food Delivery Updates
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi
  • Pinduoduo(PDD.US) 4Q22 Preview: Expect Moderate Margin Beat
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • ECM Weekly (8th Jan 2022) – Sinohytec, Beauty Farm, Sula, Kfin, Bionote, Meidong, CIFI, Jinxin Fert
  • Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jan) – Acotec, Halycon, Warrego, Nitro, Norwest, VinFast
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (8 Jan): Tian An, Differ Group, Pharmaron, Joinn Lab, Gushengtang

Meituan 4Q Food Delivery Updates

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Food delivery daily order growth gradually recovered in late Dec
  • Instashopping continued its growth momentum. Community group purchase has transformed into Next Day Delivery
  • With the recovery of restaurants and travel post re-opening, Meituan is expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

By Brian Freitas


Pinduoduo(PDD.US) 4Q22 Preview: Expect Moderate Margin Beat

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect PDD’s total revenue in C4Q22 to be in line with cons., and non-GAAP net income to beat cons. by 9%.
  • Faster-Than-Peers user growth, increase in brand product contribution and newly launched marketing program support PDD’s strong GMV trend and high take rate in the near term.
  • Temu is moving to increase order volume and ASP to improve scale and save logistics cost.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

ECM Weekly (8th Jan 2022) – Sinohytec, Beauty Farm, Sula, Kfin, Bionote, Meidong, CIFI, Jinxin Fert

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
  • On the IPO front,  only the smaller issuers were active with most following through on year end listing plans.
  • On placements front, HK market got going in a jiffy, riding on the coattails of China reopening.

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jan) – Acotec, Halycon, Warrego, Nitro, Norwest, VinFast

By Arun George


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (8 Jan): Tian An, Differ Group, Pharmaron, Joinn Lab, Gushengtang

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief China: iQIYI Inc, Agile Property Holdings, NetEase Inc, Hopson Development, ABM Investama, iShares MSCI China ETF and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023
  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break

By Eric Chen

  • Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.
  • We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.
  • With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.

Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that NetEase’s 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP net income will be in line/12% vs cons. Our 2023’s revenue/non-GAAP net income are in line/12% vs cons.
  • In 4Q22, several of NetEase’s mid-tier games saw declines in ranking.  We expect that NetEase will have a period of single digit growth in revenue.
  • We still rate NetEase BUY and raise TP to US$ 87. But NetEase is not our top pick within China internet space.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…


Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
  • We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
  • And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)

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Daily Brief China: Ping An Insurance (H), Weimob Inc., Tencent, Taste Gourmet Group, China MeiDong Auto, Futu Holdings Ltd, Ant Financial Services Group, Hygeia Healthcare Group, Loongson Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A’s, Sell the H’s
  • Weimob Placement – Share Price Momentum over the past Few Months Have Been Strong
  • Tencent(700.HK) 4Q22 Preview:Turning Points Are Emerging
  • Taste Gourmet: Growth <6x PE with 10% Div Yield and China Reopening Boost
  • Meidong: Capital Raise, There’s Never a Right Time
  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Use Derivatives to Protect Recent Gains
  • CSRC Sanction Is Likely Darkness Before Dawn
  • Ant Group’s Lending Unit Gets Approval for $1.5 Billion Capital Boost
  • Hygeia Healthcare Placement (6078.HK)- The Prospect Is More Certain After the Policy Risk Is Removed
  • Chinese Intel Alternative Makes Consumer Play With Retail Store

Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A’s, Sell the H’s

By Brian Freitas


Weimob Placement – Share Price Momentum over the past Few Months Have Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is looking to raise about US$205m in its primary placement to fund R&D, upgrade marketing systems, and for general working capital purposes.
  • On an ADV basis, the deal is a relatively small one at just 3.6 days of the firm’s three month ADV.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Tencent(700.HK) 4Q22 Preview:Turning Points Are Emerging

By Shawn Yang

  • Our Tencent 4Q22’s rev. is in line, while non-IFRS net income would beat cons. by 5.2%. We estimate that top and bottom line will grow 13%/14% YoY in 2023.
  • We suggest major business lines see turning points in 4Q22, supported by rebound of Peacekeeper Elite’s gross billings, approval of new game codes, monetization of Wechat Video Account, etc.
  • Tencent is one of our top picks. Video Account, global game publishing, and margin beat are three major catalysts. Our TP HK$ 407 implies 26.1X PE in 2023.

Taste Gourmet: Growth <6x PE with 10% Div Yield and China Reopening Boost

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) is an excellent play on China/HK reopening with a 5.7x/4.2x FY23/24 PE and 10+% dividend yield, with 25% of the mkt cap in net cash.
  • Reopening of China and HK borders after Jan 8th will provide a boost to the revenue and margins. The company will also resume its expansions in China (3 restaurants). 
  • Channel checks suggest a solid Q3 2023, with the company expanding to 38 restaurants in HK (34 in Q2 2023), with a surge in revenue likely due to seasonality. 

Meidong: Capital Raise, There’s Never a Right Time

By Sameer Taneja

  • China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) raised 800mn HKD in a top placement (px~15 HKD/share), resulting in a ~4% dilution, citing an opportunistic raise for M&A.
  • While the company asserts there is a well-defined pipeline, it was not very specific on the size and scope of its targets which was not taken well by the market.
  • We continue to like the company, trading at a 15x/9x PE FY22e/23e, with a 5.2%/8.8% dividend yield (assuming an 80% payout ratio), with the optionality of M&A potential. 

EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Use Derivatives to Protect Recent Gains

By Simon Harris

  • Stock is up over 80% from October lows and almost 10% in 2023 already
  • Sentiment over fundamentals appears to be driving the rally and stock is back in the worlds top 10 most valuable companies
  • We consider some option strategies to roll profits and reduce exposure

CSRC Sanction Is Likely Darkness Before Dawn

By Shawn Yang

  • CSRC’s rectification on FUTU to suspend new user registration from mainland China while allow service continuation to existing user is well expected. We believe the market over-reacted;
  • FUTU caters to overseas Chinese and populations falling outside of major currency zones. This market supports a paying user growth of 12% and revenue growth of 19% CAGR to 2025.
  • We maintain BUY and cut TP from US$58.5 to US$50 due to moderate decline in mainland China users.

Ant Group’s Lending Unit Gets Approval for $1.5 Billion Capital Boost

By Caixin Global

  • Ant Group Co. Ltd.’s online lending subsidiary has been given the go-ahead from regulators to boost its registered capital by 10.5 billion yuan ($1.5 billion), marking a key step forward in the fintech giant’s government-driven, year-long revamp
  • The approval was granted a month and a half after some of the unit’s shareholders disclosed the plan, underscoring the recent pledge by authorities to promote healthy development
  • Ant Group, backed by billionaire Jack Ma’s e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., has been conducting a rectification required by the government since a regulatory storm saw its planned blockbuster IPO suspended in November 2020

Hygeia Healthcare Placement (6078.HK)- The Prospect Is More Certain After the Policy Risk Is Removed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The government has changed its tone and started to encourage social capital to run hospitals, indicating that the previous concerns about the policy risk on Hygeia has been relieved.
  • At this stage, Hygeia has more investment value, greater expansion space and higher market demand than Aier Eye Hospital. Meanwhile, the Company performs better in trans provincial expansion than Topchoice. 
  • Due to large investment/“heavy asset” model, Hygeia would continue to face capital pressure. Its expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control expansion quality. 

Chinese Intel Alternative Makes Consumer Play With Retail Store

By Caixin Global

  • Loongson Technology Corp. Ltd., a Chinese chip architecture developer, took a major step into the consumer market by opening its first brick-and-mortar pop-up store
  • Loongson is also exhibiting its development kits and solutions for printers, smart door locks, and treadmills in the store
  • This is not the first time Loongson has attempted to enter the consumer market. The firm opened an online store on e-commerce platform JD.com in October 2021, selling laptops, desktops, and their components like motherboards and memory kits

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