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China Archives | Page 57 of 154 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief China: Huitongda, Yashili International Holdings, Taste Gourmet, Meituan, Koolearn, UBTech Robotics, China Communications Construction, Weibo Corp, Li Auto and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Huitongda Lock-Up – US$1.1bn Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry. China-Based Funds at Least 40% Up
  • Yashili (1230 HK): Pre-Condition Finally to Be Satisfied?
  • Taste Gourmet: Encouraging 3Q 2023, Super Set Up for Q4.
  • [Meituan (3690 HK) Downgrade to SELL]: The Rise of Douyin Is Likely to Hurt Meituan
  • Meituan to Hire 10k Employees to Compete with Douyin’s Food Delivery Business
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (13 Feb): Koolearn, China Gas, MOG, Hua Yin, China Environmental
  • UBTech Robotics Hong Kong IPO: Capital Dried Up as Fundamentals Deteriorated
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Securing Stronger Backlog to Fuel Growth
  • [Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY
  • [Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$40) Earnings Preview]: Riding Intact Model Cycle in 2023

Huitongda Lock-Up – US$1.1bn Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry. China-Based Funds at Least 40% Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Huitongda (9878 HK) was listed on 18th Feb 2023, when it raised US$285m in its HK IPO. Its one-year lockup will expire on 17th February 2023.
  • Huitongda (HTD) is a commerce and service platform serving businesses in the lower-tier retail markets of China.
  • Coming up for one-year lockup expiry are HTD’s pre-IPO investors. With the exception of Alibaba and SOE backers, the bulk of HTD’s pre-IPO investors are still currently in the money.

Yashili (1230 HK): Pre-Condition Finally to Be Satisfied?

By Arun George

  • Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) latest monthly update notes that Dumex Key Condition 2 is satisfied paving the way towards completing the Dumex China Disposal. 
  • The completion of the remaining pre-condition, the 25% Yashili acquisition, depends on the completion of the Dumex China Disposal, which now looks imminent.
  • We think the pre-condition will be satisfied by the end of February and the scheme document will be despatched by early April. At the last close, the spread is 6.2%.

Taste Gourmet: Encouraging 3Q 2023, Super Set Up for Q4.

By Sameer Taneja

  • Earnings for Q3 2023 came in at 17.5 mn HKD up 5% YoY, about 15% below our expectations due to closure costs incurred on some restaurants in November. 
  • The company added four restaurants in December 2022 which should result in strong revenue growth in January 2023. We expect monthly revenue to surpass HKD 80 mn. 
  • Post the recent rally, the stock trades at 8.2x/5.2x FY23e/24e, with a 7.3%/11.5% FY23e/24e dividend yield assuming a 60% payout. We see this as an extremely cheap HK recovery play. 

[Meituan (3690 HK) Downgrade to SELL]: The Rise of Douyin Is Likely to Hurt Meituan

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Meituan to report 18% YoY topline growth in C4Q22, in line with cons. Our non-IFRS net margin est. is 1.9ppt higher than cons.
  • In-Store would be impacted by Douyin’s category expansion and deepening penetration in lower-tier cities.
  • We downgrade Meituan to SELL and cut TP to HK$137 due to pressure from competition for in-store.

Meituan to Hire 10k Employees to Compete with Douyin’s Food Delivery Business

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • On Tuesday last week, short-video app Douyin announced that it plans to offer its food delivery service in more Chinese cities expanding its current trial in Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai.
  • Following this, on Wednesday last week, Meituan announced that it plans to recruit 10,000 workers in 1Q2023 across a number of its business divisions including technology development and customer services.
  • Though we don’t expect Douyin’s entry into food delivery to have large impact, increased competitive pressure and headcount increase would drag down Meituan’s profitability in the near-term.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (13 Feb): Koolearn, China Gas, MOG, Hua Yin, China Environmental

By David Blennerhassett


UBTech Robotics Hong Kong IPO: Capital Dried Up as Fundamentals Deteriorated

By Andrei Zakharov

  • UBTech Robotics, a leader in AI-powered robotics in China, filed for a Hong Kong IPO with Guotai Junan Capital leading the offering. The company plans to sell H-shares to investors. 
  • UBTech Robotics mulled IPO in 2019, but the company postponed domestic listing in China. In May 2018, UBTech Robotics closed an $820M Series C round at a $5B post-money valuation. 
  • Despite challenges, we remain bullish on China’s AI industry and consumer robotics market. However, UBTech’s fundamentals deteriorated, capital dried up, and IPO looks risky today. 

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Securing Stronger Backlog to Fuel Growth

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • There is a sharp escalation in business momentum of China Communications Construction (1800 HK) in 4Q22, with value of new contracts signed surged 95.3% YoY to Rmb510bn.
  • New contract growth reached 21.6% in FY22, ahead of its target of 11.8%. We estimate its end-FY22 backlog at Rmb3.6trn, which is enough to cover 5x its FY22 revenue. 
  • Local governments’ special purpose bond quota may increase by 4-10% in FY23F, boosting CCCC’s contract outlook. At 2x PER, 0.2x P/B and 7.6% dividend yield, CCCC stays attractive.

[Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary disturbance caused by reopening. 
  • We remain optimistic about Weibo’s rebound in 1H23 as the macro improves, with top line/bottom line beating cons. by 2.2%/5.5% in 2023.
  • Reiterate BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 26.9, implying 11.7X PE in 2023.

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$40) Earnings Preview]: Riding Intact Model Cycle in 2023

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Li Auto to report 4Q22 top line of RMB 17.5bn, in line with consensus, and recovered GPM of 21.8%, vs 12.7% in Q3.
  • We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, because of 1) positive growth outlook in 2023 driven by strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7);
  • 2) margin upside in 2023 driven by improved product mix, sharing of auto parts among its product line up, and expanded scale economy; 3) less impacted by Tesla’s price war.

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Daily Brief China: Koolearn, Sa Sa International Hldgs, Jacobio Pharmaceuticals and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Koolearn (1797 HK): Don’t Overpay for Growth
  • Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): On-Ground Observations and Outlook
  • Jacobio Pharmaceuticals Placement (1167.HK) – We Keep Hope for Jacobio Because of Dr. Wang Yinxiang

Koolearn (1797 HK): Don’t Overpay for Growth

By Eric Chen

  • Koolearn’s successful transformation into a live-streaming e-commerce business showcased outstanding entrepreneurship and leadership of its founder Michael Yu, whom we highly respect.
  • That said, we expect its growth to decelerate materially after hitting RMB18 billion GMV by 2024. We value Koolearn at RMB36 billion (20% downside), drawing reference to VIPShop growth trajectory.
  • While high-frequency data on live-streaming business will drive near-term stock price (and potentially to the upside), its current valuation doesn’t pay off for long -term investors in our view.

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): On-Ground Observations and Outlook

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We observed that businesses at Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK) have picked up during the Chinese New Year, but a significant overall significant recovery is still lacked.
  • The full relaxation of mainland-HK border control has brought about a 110% surge in mainland arrival between 6 Feb and 11 Feb. This suggests that momentum is clearly building up. 
  • Sa Sa has embarked on strategies like re-opening important stores, selectively increase store counts and re-adjusting staff arrangement and opening hours to capture the opportunities.

Jacobio Pharmaceuticals Placement (1167.HK) – We Keep Hope for Jacobio Because of Dr. Wang Yinxiang

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There is limited breakthrough points in the field of small molecule drugs. Except those big varieties, the market space of small-molecular drugs is not optimistic due to small applicable population.
  • For KRAS, it just crossed the threshold of druggablility, but the whole pathway hasn’t shown the feeling of being a blockbuster variety, which would dampen the optimism of Jacobio’s valuation.
  • Jacobio is among the few biotech under Chapter 18A who really develop drugs seriously. Therefore, despite the challenging outlook, we hoped that Dr. Yinxiang Wang would finally break through.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Medicilon Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) – Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Hesai Group (HSAI US) provided the first Asia linked listing for the year.
  • Things were quiet on the placement front owing to the annual earnings reporting season.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) – Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The benefits of assisted reproduction being covered by medical insurance are limited. Its main role is still to delay not fundamentally reverse the decline of China’s birth rate.
  • If the valuation collapse occurs collectively in one field, it basically reflects that Miss Market does not hold much hope for this field in the future, such as cell therapy. 
  • We mainly analyzed some key points of the companies that investors may be interested in, such as iRay Technology (688301 CH) and Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH).

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Daily Brief China: Standard Chartered, Link REIT, Concord Healthcare Group, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Standard Chartered: Has FAB Gone Cold Or Just Cooling Off?
  • Big Link REIT (823 HK) Rights Offering
  • Concord Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Weekly Wrap – 10 Feb 2023

Standard Chartered: Has FAB Gone Cold Or Just Cooling Off?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 5 January, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB DH) said it had considered a bid for Standard Chartered (STAN LN/2888 HK),  but was no longer evaluating an Offer.
  • Such a statement kickstarts a six-month cooling-off period whereby FAB is restricted from reloading. This means all deal work must cease.  Unless another bidder emerges or STAN’s board approves. 
  • In a curious development, STAN’s shares popped ~11% yesterday, on no apparent news.

Big Link REIT (823 HK) Rights Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • After being halted this morning before the start of trade, post-close, Link REIT (823 HK) announced a fully-underwritten Rights Offering
  • The Rights Offering intends to raise HK$18.8bn issuing 1 Right for every 5 Shares held, at a subscription price of HK$44.20, a 26% discount to TERP. 
  • This will take an already under-levered REIT and add more capital to it. And there is going to be selling pressure at some point.

Concord Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Concord Healthcare (Concord) is an oncology health platform in China researching and implementing advanced oncology diagnostic and treatment technologies.
  • As per Frost and Sullivan (F&S), in 2021, Concord was the market leader among private oncology healthcare groups in China, as measured by cancer treatment empowerment service revenue.

Weekly Wrap – 10 Feb 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Wynn Macau Ltd
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Softbank Group
  4. Country Garden Holdings Co
  5. China Hongqiao

and more…


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Daily Brief China: CATL (A), Playmates Toys, Kingston Financial, Baidu, China Resources Beer Holdings, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), Nayuki Holdings, People’s Insurance (PICC), Dekon Food and Agriculture Group, Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable
  • Playmates Toys: Betting on Paramount’s New Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle (TMNT) Movie
  • Kingston Financial (1031 HK) Scheme: That Is a Pass
  • Baidu (Bidu.US): AIGC to Bring More Potential and Empower Search Biz
  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity
  • EQD | FXI US: Buying the Dip Using Options
  • Nayuki (2150 HK) Rating Change: Broaden Addressable Market Is Priority No.1
  • PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average
  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology (688366.CH/6826.HK)- Disappointing Earnings and Gloomy Outlook

CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable

By Clarence Chu

  • CATL (A) (300750 CH) is looking to raise up to US$6bn in its upcoming Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC, China Securities, Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
  • The relatively large listing comes after the firm has been undertaking a series of capital raisings, since it’s A-share debut back in Jun 2018, to fund its expansion. 
  • In this note, we discuss GDR timelines, and the firm’s recent financial performance/valuations.

Playmates Toys: Betting on Paramount’s New Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle (TMNT) Movie

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Playmates Toys (869 HK) has been listed since 2008 and makes TMNT toys. It has traded as high as 4 HKD/share on the back of successful TMNT movie launches
  • Paramount is set to launch a highly anticipated Seth Rogen-produced, TMNT movie in August 2023. In 2013/2014 the stock went up 8x on the last successful TMNT movie launch
  • Playmates Toys trades at negative enterprise value, hence giving a large margin of safety option to bet on the success of a TMNT revival

Kingston Financial (1031 HK) Scheme: That Is a Pass

By Arun George

  • Kingston Financial (1031 HK)’s scheme resolution was approved at today’s scheme meeting – 99.89% of independent share votes cast FOR (0.09% of all independent shareholders AGAINST).
  • The scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 44 FOR and 13 AGAINST the scheme (56 FOR and 20 AGAINST on a look-through basis).  
  • The last trading is on 10 February. At the last close and for the 3 March payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.4% and 69.3%, respectively. 

Baidu (Bidu.US): AIGC to Bring More Potential and Empower Search Biz

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Baidu’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line would miss cons. by (1.6%)/(3.1%), mostly driven by the temporal disturbance of increasing COVID cases after reopening in Dec. 2022. 
  • However, we remain optimistic about 2023 outlook: 1) Baidu’s ads would be recovering quickly in 1H23 as macro improves, and 2) leading position in AIGC development gives Baidu more potential.
  • Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$170, implying 17.2X PE in 2023

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. 
  • January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.

EQD | FXI US: Buying the Dip Using Options

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have paused for breath this month underperforming most other global indices
  • The outlook for the region remains strong as reopening strength gains momentum and the Government continue to announce new supportive measures
  • We favour a buy the dip strategy and suggest using derivatives to play it

Nayuki (2150 HK) Rating Change: Broaden Addressable Market Is Priority No.1

By Shawn Yang

  • Nayuki bears the most resemblance to Starbucks in that it owns its stores and provides drink, food and space, yet its appealed audience is the narrowest; 
  • Shopping mall opening might hit an all-time low in 2023 and is saturated. Nayuki need to think new ways to broaden its targeted market;
  • We downgrade Nayuki to SELL and lower TP from HK$13.9 to HK3.1

PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • To build on our earlier work on the insurance space — and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays — we look at PICC Group-H’s SOTP valuation.
  • The group’s life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.
  • We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.

Dekon Food and Agriculture Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (DFAG CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Citibank.  
  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (DFAG) is a livestock and poultry breeding and farming enterprise in China, focusing on the breeding and farming of pigs and yellow-feathered broilers. 
  • As of 30th Sep 2022, its business footprint covered 39 cities across 12 provinces and autonomous regions in China. 

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology (688366.CH/6826.HK)- Disappointing Earnings and Gloomy Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Through continuous M&A/resource integration, Haohai has gradually established its four business segments, but such development strategy hasn’t brought ideal performance, which is disappointing if compared with Bloomage and Imeik.
  • The future performance driver of Haohai still lies in the medical aesthetics business, but increasing competition and declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook and growth potential.
  • Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology-A (688366 CH) is overvalued. Due to lack of growth point with high certainty, we are not optimistic about the upside potential of Haohai’s valuation.

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Daily Brief China: China Unicom Hong Kong, Kuaishou Technology, UBTech Robotics, CStone Pharmaceuticals and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Telcos: Send In The Clouds
  • Kuaishou(1024.HK)4Q22 Preview: Competition and Restructure Are Pending Issues
  • UBTech Robotics IPO Preview
  • CStone Pharmaceuticals Placement (2616.HK) – There Is No Certainty that the Dilemma Will Reverse

China Telcos: Send In The Clouds

By David Blennerhassett

  • The rapid adoption of cloud computing has led to China boasting the world’s second-largest cloud computing market.
  • This migration to the cloud is in lock-step with global customer needs: scale, greater efficiency, and availability; together with a reduction in capex and infrastructure complexity.
  • The big three PRC telcos are firmly in the mix, with each announcing 100%+ growth in revenue for their cloud businesses in 1H22. Expect that trend to continue.

Kuaishou(1024.HK)4Q22 Preview: Competition and Restructure Are Pending Issues

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect that Kuaishou’s 4Q22 top line and bottom line would be 0.2%/3.7% vs cons, as major business lines are recovering with stimuli of CNY promotion campaigns. 
  • However, we estimate that its 2023 top line/bottom line would miss cons. by (0.9%)/(14.2%) due to our concerns of increasing competition and internal restructuring.
  • Maintain SELL rating but raise TP to HK$ 56 to reflect on-track recovering trend as the macro improves. 

UBTech Robotics IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • UBTech Robotics is trying to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. UBTech Robotics is a leading artificial intelligence based robotics company headquartered in China.
  • UBTech Robotics received very fat valuations in the past couple of years. Back in January 2021, it was reported that the company’s valuation reached as high as $7 billion.
  • In China’s smart education robot based solution market, UBTech Robotics is the number one player. 

CStone Pharmaceuticals Placement (2616.HK) – There Is No Certainty that the Dilemma Will Reverse

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The revenue brought by CStone’s differentiated layout of pipeline does not match the R&D investment. CStone needs to in-license more late-stage products, but the Company is not cash rich.
  • CStone was incubated by WuXi Bio. Its business model is“VC+IP+CRO”. Cstone doesn’t have independent R&D capability. The increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products has made the capital “reconsider” .
  • Cstone doesn’t have the potential to be a biopharma as it licensed out the key/core candidates. Its future valuation growth would be “discounted”. Corporate governance/instability is also a concern.

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Daily Brief China: Hongkong Land, Consun Pharmaceutical, Pinduoduo, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Road King Infrastructure, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Property: Retail Reopening Front-Runners
  • Consun Pharmaceutical (1681.HK) – Still Has Investment Value Even Without High-Priced Acquisition
  • Pinduoduo: Untaming TEMU Through $100 Coupons
  • EQD | HSI Index: Buying the Dip Using Options
  • Road King – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Pertamina Geothermal, Softbank Group, Vedanta Resources

Hong Kong Property: Retail Reopening Front-Runners

By David Blennerhassett

  • China’s swift and sudden abolishment of its Covid rules triggered across-the-board outperformance for Hong Kong stocks. The HSI is up ~13% since early December 2022. 
  • A strong rebound of inbound tourism and the resumption of normalised travel between Hong Kong and the mainland should underpin the city’s recovery.
  • The retail sector, notably the high street shop segment, should lead this post-Covid recovery in terms of both rents and prices. 

Consun Pharmaceutical (1681.HK) – Still Has Investment Value Even Without High-Priced Acquisition

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The potential high-priced acquisition proposed by Wepon failed. In fact, Wepon is in a vicious circle. So, terminating the acquisition is not a bad thing for Consun Pharmaceutical (1681 HK).
  • Consun kept positive momentum and its performance was strong in 22H1. Such growth is expected to continue after China reopens as non-COVID related medical demand returns to normal.
  • Considering its solid business performance and large cash balance, Consun is obviously undervalued. In our view, even without Wepon’s deal as the catalyst, Consun still has investment value.

Pinduoduo: Untaming TEMU Through $100 Coupons

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The market seems to be expecting quite a bit from Pinduoduo (PDD US) in upcoming earnings with consensus expecting the company to make around RMB 11.4bn OP in 4Q22.
  • With CCP’s anti-monopoly drive on hold, Pinduoduo may need to persuade customers and merchants a bit more than usual via sales and marketing to further improve its market position.
  • TEMU was anyway going to be a significant burden on profitability. With aggressive discounting and coupons, we think that burden has gotten significantly heavier.

EQD | HSI Index: Buying the Dip Using Options

By Simon Harris

  • HSI Index has paused for breath this month underperforming most other global indices
  • The outlook for the region remains strong as reopening strength gains momentum and the Government continue to announce new supportive measures
  • We favour a buy the dip strategy and suggest using derivatives to play it

Road King – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view Road King as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has increasingly focused on growing and improving its property development business. We view favourably Road King’s geographical exposure to the Yangtze River Delta and Pan Bohai Rim regions, as well as the steady cash flow from its toll-road segment. The toll-road business has high margins, and reflects the company’s decent relationship with the government.

However, Road King has little pricing power, as tolls are regulated to avoid excessive charges. We also negatively note the company’s reliance on JV structures for the property and toll-road segments, along with its heavy use of perpetual securities. Moreover, Road King has poor disclosure compared to peers.  

Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Negative”, as Road King may not be able to deleverage in the near term, given its need to replenish the small land bank. Positively, the company has a well-spread debt maturity profile, with the next offshore bond (USD 480 mn) due in September 2024. Road King does not have to redeem its perpetuals, given the absence of coupon step-ups.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. We believe the Chinese Property sector has moderate exposure to environmental and social risks. The sector is not energy intensive, but may face social issues related to construction safety and ability to meet homebuyers’ requirements. We view governance risks as being more significant, due to the sector’s generally lower transparency and weaker internal controls.


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Pertamina Geothermal, Softbank Group, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Pinduoduo, Shanghai Junshi Bioscience, PICC Property & Casualty H, Greentown China, Zhejiang Hangke Technology-A, Remegen Co Ltd, Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Internet Weekly (6Feb2023): Tencent, JD.com, Microsoft
  • EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK/688180 CH): US Approval of Toripalimab Is Still In Doldrums
  • PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Greentown China
  • Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity
  • Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) – There’s Expectation Difference in Valuation; Trading Opportunity Occurs
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO – Should Turnaround once COVID Is Over

China Internet Weekly (6Feb2023): Tencent, JD.com, Microsoft

By Ming Lu

  • WeChat Usage increased by 23% YoY in physical store during Chinese New Year holidays.
  • JD.com will close its e-commerce platforms in Indonesia and Thailand in March.
  • Microsoft denies a layoff plan in China, but the details of the plan are spreading.

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
  • As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
  • China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK/688180 CH): US Approval of Toripalimab Is Still In Doldrums

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH) did not receive FDA approval for toripalimab in US, as the agency could not conduct on-site inspection of the company’s manufacturing facility for the drug.
  • Toripalimab (branded as TUOYI) is showing decelerated revenue growth rate in China. Besides being approved for small patient population, TUOYI has seen reduction in price after being included in NRDL.
  • In May 2022, the company launched adalimumab biosimilar in China. It marks a late entry in a highly competitive market. COVID-19 oral drug should not bode well for the company.

PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • PICC P&C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.
  • As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock’s performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. 
  • Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Greentown China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.
  • 688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) – There’s Expectation Difference in Valuation; Trading Opportunity Occurs

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • RemeGen’s revenue declined in 22H2, leading to lower-than-expected performance last year.However, 2022’s low base is good for the growth this year,especially when non-COVID treatment returns to normal after China reopens. 
  • We analyzed our revenue forecast on RC48 and RC18. We don’t think there should be big difference between the market value of RemeGen and Akeso. So, RemeGen’s valuation is attractive.
  • The sentiment in HKEX has changed this year, so the trading strategy should be different. The pullback could be a buying opportunity, especially for good biotech companies such as RemeGen.

Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO – Should Turnaround once COVID Is Over

By Ethan Aw

  • Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials (1919613D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials (GNCM) is a supplier of new energy battery materials in China, with a dual focus on nickel and cobalt for the production of cathode materials. 
  • The firm has made itself one of the top Chinese players in terms of cobalt refining by sales volume and nickel by trading volume. However, its profitability was significantly impacted. 

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Daily Brief China: Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A, Yashili International Holdings, Hesai Group, JD Health, Alphamab Co Ltd, Luckin Coffee, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Atour Lifestyle Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform
  • Merger Arb Mondays (6 Feb) – Yashili, Kingston, Origin, Pushpay, Halcyon, O2Micro, Techno Associe
  • Hesai Group IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate
  • HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) – Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech
  • Luckin(LKNCY.US) Initiation: Rising Challenger, Market and Business Model
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, China Hongqiao
  • Atour (ATAT.US) Preview: Expecting Weak 4Q22 and Strong 2023

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


Hesai Group IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) is looking to raise around US$170m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March 2023.
  • We believe Healthcare names could be given top priority when selecting additions for the upcoming rebalance.
  • The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-February 2023 and implemented in early-March 2023.

HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Hesai Group is implied market cap of US$3.4 billion or target price of US$27.1 per share.
  • Our target price is 43% higher than the high end of the IPO price of US$19 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of this IPO. 
  • The company’s superior technology in the LiDAR product segment along with its global market leadership should help Hesai Group to successfully complete this IPO despite political risks related to China. 

Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) – Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Unlike ADC, there’re still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn’t actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.
  • Investors’ trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.
  • The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.

Luckin(LKNCY.US) Initiation: Rising Challenger, Market and Business Model

By Shawn Yang

  • We initiated Luckin with a BUY with TP $40 because we believe Luckin is a rising challenger in a rising market, half way through a rising business model; 
  • We see room for Luckin to expand transaction frequency and transacting customers before expanding ASP in order to drive same store sales;
  • In the long run, we see coffee + western bakery to gain market share over tea house + Chinese dim sum in the snack + breakfast market. 

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, China Hongqiao

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Atour (ATAT.US) Preview: Expecting Weak 4Q22 and Strong 2023

By Shawn Yang

  • Although the operating metrics are expected to be weak in 4Q22 due to the lingering of Covid effects, we expect the resumption of travel to stimulate hotel demands in 2023. 
  • We expect Atour to report its 4Q22 revenue at RMB580mn and OPM at 8.2%, both in-line with consensus. We expect a strong revenue growth at 60% YoY in 2023.
  • We rate the stock as BUY and maintain the TP at US$35.

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Daily Brief China: Hesai Group, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Adani Enterprises, CanSino Biologics Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HESAI Group IPO Preview
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • ECM Weekly (5th Feb 2023) – Adani, Pertamina, Hesai, Ruipeng Pet, Concord, Oasis, Flight Centre
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don’t Be Greedy in Front of Rally

HESAI Group IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next several weeks in the United States, planning to raise as much as $171 million.
  • The ADAS penetration rate in China is expected to surge from 4.6% in 2022 to 11.2% in 2024 and 87.9% in 2030.
  • The company is a leading maker of laser-based LiDAR sensors in China. The company’s major customers in the ADAS segment include Li Auto, Jidu, and Lotus.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

ECM Weekly (5th Feb 2023) – Adani, Pertamina, Hesai, Ruipeng Pet, Concord, Oasis, Flight Centre

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Indonesia kicked-off bookbuild for what is likely to be one of its largest IPOs this year.
  • On the placement front, Adani’s FPO continued to keep everyone busy with its twists and turns. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don’t Be Greedy in Front of Rally

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. 
  • Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China’s GDP would still increase.
  • CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH) intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. 

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