China Archives | Page 53 of 154 | Smartkarma

• JD Health reported 2H2022 results. 2H revenue increased 55.5% YoY to RMB26.5bn (RMB24.2bn) while fall in GPM and an increase in fulfilment costs led to operating losses during the period.
• Product revenues (JD Pharmacy) continues to account for a majority of JD Health’s revenues that generate lower GPM compared to Marketplace and other revenues.
• JD Health’s share price has moved up over the last few months but further decline in GPM  could pull the share price down suggesting it could be a Good Short.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Evergrande
2. Vedanta Resources
3. Sino-Ocean Group
4. Lippo Karawaci
5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Evergrande
2. Vedanta Resources
3. Sino-Ocean Group
4. Lippo Karawaci
5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…

• Yilli’s aggressive marketing in 2Q raised market concerns over intensifying competition
• An outright price war is unlikely as its closest competitor, Mengniu, is not willing to follow suit
• Margin remains under pressure on rising input cost
• Trimmed fair value to CNY22.5 (from CNY26.1)

• Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
• In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
• Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• On 14 February 2023 we published a bearish recommendation in  Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK), targeting a 9.1% multi-week decline in Q1 2023.
• 2208 HK declined from 7.62 on 14 February to 6.94 on 10 March (19 trading days), a decline of 9.1%. 

• China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. expects to post a net loss of 27.6 billion yuan ($4 billion) for 2022.
• Citing factors including volatility in the capital markets leading to declines in the value of some assets, business transition and the real estate industry slump.
• The bad-debt manager said it adjusted its business structure last year, resulting in less nonperforming asset acquisition and restructuring and less revenue.

• XPeng Inc. has predicted that revenue and vehicle deliveries will nosedive in the current quarter after the Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) upstart reported slowing sales growth and a loss that nearly doubled in 2022.
• The company’s revenue will likely plunge 43.7% to 46.3% year-on-year to between 4 billion yuan ($581 million) and 4.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023.
• The outlook is based on an estimate that its deliveries will plummet 45% to 47.9% year-on-year in the same quarter to around 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

• China approved its first homegrown Covid-19 vaccine using the advanced mRNA technology, months after the country pivoted from its “zero-Covid” strategy toward living with the virus.
• The vaccine, developed by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd., was approved for emergency use by the National Medical Products Administration.
• The shot, known as SYS6006, primarily targets the omicron variant BA.5 and can be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit) “for a long time,”.

• Tencent reported 4Q22 top line/ bottom line of 0.3%/(3.7%) vs cons. Online ads is stronger, while gaming and G&A slightly missed our est. 
• We expect that ads will be the main driver, thanks to video accounts. Gaming will have better performance after more approved game codes.
• We raise 2023 ads growth from 12% YoY to 15% YoY. Raise TP to HK$ 433. Maintain Tencent as one of the top picks in China Internet

• If WuXi Chemistry’s performance shows downward trend, the overall performance growth won’t be satisfactory. The negative growth of WuXi DDSU means that ineffective competition for domestic innovative drugs is decreasing.
• The asset structure is shifting from light asset to heavy asset.It’s particularly crucial whether business model of “one-stop end-to-end service+royalty income” can enable WuXi AppTec to explore new growth points. 
• The current sentiment on CXO is “fragile” because CXO doesn’t have performance sustainability and stability, with “risk discount” problem. Its valuation haven’t reached inflection point. Without industry beta,alpha is useless.

• Payout ratio rise, but expected dividend yield just around 1%
• Mainland DP booked HK$2bn Impairment provision
• Considering uncertainties in Mainland DP market and the construction process slowing down, we cut FY22-23 revenue booking in DP, thus cut revenue forecasts for 3-13% and net profit for 14-20%

• More constructive outlook this year, despite near term impact on activities from current surge in Covid-19 infections as China re-opens.
• Prefer H shares listing (2628 HK) where valuations remain more attractive despite recent rebound.
• Fair value is lifted to CNY26.60.

Road King’s FY 2022 earnings were weaker than expected. The company posted a significant EBITDA decline, owing to a reduction in property deliveries amid the COVID-19 pandemic as well as a gross margin contraction. Looking ahead, we expect Road King’s FY 2023 contracted sales to remain weak, given the absence of land acquisitions in FY 2022 and the uncertain sales pipeline. This could pressure the company’s cash collections and internal cash generation. Positively, we expect Road King’s access to financing to remain sound, supported by its good quality asset base.

Overall, the company’s credit profile remains supported by its toll-road business, with cash dividends from the toll-road JVs covering 28% of FY 2022 interest expense. We expect recurring income from toll roads to increase in FY 2023, supported by the resumption of socio-economic activities in Mainland China and contribution from Road King’s newly acquired expressway in Indonesia. We believe the toll-road assets could be monetised in the event of tight liquidity, though bondholders are unlikely to have recourse to these assets in the event of debt restructuring (given the highly regulated nature of infrastructure assets).

• Our Tencent sell from 385 has formed a flat range with a bias to pressure the 331 pivot support to reach our 300-305 buy (cover) target.
• The descending wedge or channel is the dominant chart pattern that will drive the medium term trend. Global and HK bear pressure will influence Tencent near term.
• From the 300 support zone we see a better macro set up that will see the bull wedge mature and break higher once summer turbulence subsides.

• We believe both 4Q22 and 1Q23 can be weak quarters.
• However, we believe operating losses will shrink significantly in 4Q22 and 2023.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 77% for year end 2023.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
• March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. 

• Despite the topline growth of 20%, Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) recorded a loss in FY22 after a large impairment for its holding in Kingsoft Cloud (KC US).
• Preceding my comments on Kingsoft are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• As we expected in the preview, total revenue stopped decreasing in 4Q22.
• WeChat advertising recovered in 4Q22 earlier than we expected in the preview.
• We believe game-related revenues will grow by 8% in 2023 and 19% in 2024.

• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported 11% YoY revenue growth in 2022. The finished drug business maintained steady growth in 2022, with a continued increase in contribution from new products.
• Within the next 5 years, more than 40 innovative drugs are expected to be approved, which will provide continuous momentum for the company’s development.
• In March 2023, CSPC’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine SYS6006 has become the first independently developed mRNA vaccine product in China that has been granted for emergency use.

• Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue increased 0.5% YoY to RMB145bn (vs consensus RMB)143.5bn while adjusted OP increased 30.1% YoY to RMB28.4bn (vs consensus RMB37.2bn).
• Online advertising revenues saw a 14.8% YoY increase during 4Q2022 after 4-consecutive quarters of decline with January and February showing sustained recovery.
• Though Domestic gaming revenues declined in 4Q2022, with new gaming licenses and international expansion, we expect gaming revenues to start growing from 1Q2023.

• The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable to accept Mr Chu Hui (Chairman and CEO)’s offer to privatise Jiangnan (1366 HK) at HK$0.40 per share
• Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). There are no other shareholders with a blocking stake. 
• The price is final and attractive in the context of historical prices and multiples. At the last close, the gross spread is 8.1%. Scheme document likely despatched in mid-April.

• While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
• Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  
• Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. 

• Tencent Music (TME US) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 2.4% YoY to RMB7.4bn (vs consensus RMB7.3bn) while reported operating profit more than doubled to RMB1.4bn (vs consensus RMB1.3bn).
• Online music revenues grew 24% YoY while social entertainment business continues to see decline in paying users and ARPU. Margin improvements were driven by spending cuts.
• Social Entertainment is losing its importance and the segment continues to remain under pressure due to competition from other platforms.

• International Housewares Retail (1373 HK) is an interesting value/growth (5-10% CAGR) play with a high-dividend yield of >10%, trading at 8.1x FY23 PE. 
• The claim to fame for this company is the investment of legendary HK mid/small cap investor David Webb (who has a 6.9% stake in this company). 
• At a market cap of 2 bn HKD, the company has about 400 mn HKD net cash (20% of market cap), making it 6.9x ex-cash PE.

• With the impact of cost-cutting and monetisation wearing out, consensus looks overly aggressive to expect revenue and OP CAGRs of 24% and 35% respectively over the next two years.
• Based on Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s revenue and cost trends discussed below, we think the steady state OP margin could be substantially lower than consensus.
• Expecting consensus to downgrade expectations, we don’t think it is worthwhile paying up to 45.0x FY+2 OP (on our steady-state OP margin) for Pinduoduo at its current EV of $80.5bn.

• Over the past 12 months, we have written insights on 14 stocks in the small/mid-cap space with high dividend yields, inexpensive valuations, and a great margin of safety. 
• We re-examine these to shortlist 3-4 names of our highest conviction amidst the current macroeconomic climate.
• Our high conviction shortlist includes Water Oasis (1161 HK), Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Taste Gourmet (8371 HK).

• Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s 2022 results were below our expectations. Affected by the 22Q4 pandemic, the performance recovery in 22H2 was lower than expected. 
• The high demand due to soaring death rate since 22Q4 would be reflected in 23H1 results. Together with low base last year, strong performance rebound in 23H1 is worth expecting.
• The reason behind short-term trade and long-term hold is different. But considering the Company has no obvious flaws in its long logic, every pullback can be a good buying opportunity.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Sino-Ocean Service
• Vedanta Resources

• Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
• Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization. 
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance, peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we will talk about its refiling updates.

• Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its six-month lockup is set to expire soon.
• OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK). 
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• PDD reported C4Q22 total revenue and non-GAAP net income (5.1%) and 8.4% higher than cons. Topline miss mainly comes from the deceleration of online marketplace services. 
• We expect that PDD’s domestic eCommerce will experience slowdown in growth.  Temu is likely to grow GMV rapidly with high losses from branding and subsidies.
• PDD still outpaces its peers including JD, BABA and Shein, in both domestic and oversea markets. Maintain BUY rating on PDD with TP of US$95, which implies 24x P/2023E.

• JOYY reported 4Q22 top line of US$ 605 mn, beat our est. by 3.2%, and GAAP net income turned negative mostly due to investment loss. 
• With limited catalyst for top line, increasing operating expense and content cost to cope with competition would put pressure on bottom line. 
• Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 23.7, implying 12.6X PE in 2023.

• For FY2022–Total Buyback of 5.9 million shares (HK$18.3 million) at average price of $3.10
• Funds Management Business – Extended Platform to provide Family Office Solutions
• Funds Management Unit – Total AUM increased 21% to US$975 million in 2022 with external capital accounting for 46.5%

• Macro trend remains challenging for Meituan over the summer. We see a tactical short out of triangulation and view a new low as a turn and buy signal.
• RSI bull divergence support a series of tactical rally sequences off of a new low, but macro headwinds will cap over the summer.
• Bull set up at lower expanding wedge support with wedge resistance coming in near 140. 

• We believe total revenue grew 18% in 4Q22 and 22% in 2023.
• We believe operating losses decreased YoY in 4Q22 and the company will report an operating profit in 2023.
• We expect the stock has an upside of 47% for year end 2023.

• Baidu launched a beta test of a ChatGTP-like function, WXYY.
• Tencent announced it will close its digital collection platform, Huanhe, in June.
• KE’s revenue decreased by 25% and new losses were RMB1.4 billion.

• Megvii is a leading artificial intelligence company in China focusing on IoT scenarios for mainly three fields including Consumer IoT, City IoT and Supply Chain IoT. 
• In June 2022, Megvii’s chief scientist Sun Jian passed away due to a sudden illness. His death was one of the key reasons why the company has postponed the IPO.
• Major investors in Megvii include Ant Group, Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Lenovo (992 HK), and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

• After a dip in earnings in FY22, Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) guides for an encouraging rebound in FY23 with at least 35% revenue and 30-35% net profit growth.
• We think the 12.7% growth in earnings in 2H22, against -28.9% in 1H22, showed that pandemic impact has faded. It is still very well positioned to benefit from aging population. 
• Net cash equals 19% of its share price and its 13.9x PER for FY23 is not expensive relative to peers. We estimate, ex-cash, ROE is at a high of 24%. 

• In 4Q22, revenue grew by 46% YoY, lower than consensus, but higher than competitors.
• The operating margin improved significantly from 7% in 2021 to 23% in 2022.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 31% and a price target of US$120.

• Established in 2019 and headquartered in Hong Kong, Smartmore is a technology company that focuses on the use of artificial intelligence to implement smart manufacturing and ultra-high definition videos.
• The company’s intelligent manufacturing technology helps detect malfunction at manufacturing lines in numerous industries such as autos and semiconductors.
• Since the inception of the company, Smartmore has raised nearly $300 million in funding. Its major investors include Hermitage Capital, IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital China, and Lenovo Capital.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Melco Resorts & Entertainment
• Sunny Optical

• Xpeng reported soft 4Q22 results, with top line of RMB 5.14bn, missing our estimate/cons. by (5.6%)/(9.7%); GPM of 8.7%, missing our estimate/cons. by (1.6ppt)/(3.4ppt), primarily due to increased sales promotions. 
• We maintain SELL, because 1) price war and intensified competition in 2023 are still key challenges facing its existing and new models; 
• 2) margin pressure ahead amid the price war, while its cost reduction initiatives starting from 2H23 take time to verify effect.

• In early 2022, Tencent (700 HK) made clear it was on a divestment path – disposing of investments able to support themselves – possibly “obliged” after 2021’s China internet mess.
• In August, Reuters suggested Meituan (3690 HK) was next. Tencent denied it, but in November with Q3 earnings, announced a January 2023 distribution with March 2023 settlement. 
• US$16bn of Meituan shares get delivered on 24 March 2023 – this Friday. That’s a lot. But this time is different than last time.

• Upcoming banking crisis will accelerate in the coming few weeks, it is very likely Fed will slow down rate hike or re-start a rate cut cycle
• To position for this:  BUY Hong Kong property developers New World Development 17 HK, Henderson 12 HK, Sun Hung Kai Properties 16 HK
• Apart from HK RE developers, buy China’s name Hang Lung (101 HK) and crypto-currency (BTC and ETH)

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• IPO activity continues to pick up momentum, although the recent market volatility will likely make a few companies reconsider their near term plans.
• On the placements front, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) hasn’t been playing ball, as has been the case with most of the other past deals which offered a trivial discount.

• Nearly 90% through the review period, we see 6 potential adds and 5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
• We estimate a one-way turnover of 5.07% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.97bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 17% over the last month and by 21% over the last two months.

• Three quarters of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
• Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. On average, the impact on the potential deletions is higher.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, and there has been a sharp widening of the gap over the last few weeks.

• Air China (H) (753 HK) underperformed China Southern (1055 HK) YTD as domestic traffic recovery is faster than international, but its momentum will accelerate in the rest of the year.
• With Jan-Feb domestic traffic returned to 92.6% of 2019, CSA’s upside is relative limited. Air China, instead, will benefit from more profound international rebound which only back by 10.3%. 
• Recent developments including resumption of visa issuance and outbound international group travels, removal of pre-flight negative PCR tests and recovery of visitors to HK all bode well for Air China.

• BEKE (Beike) reported 4Q22 revenue in-line/4.9% vs our est./cons. Non-GAAP operating income 65% higher than our estimate and non-GAAP net income 59%/122% higher than our est./cons. 
• We estimate 1Q23/2023 revenue to rise 46%/24% YoY. We think Beike’s strategy on focusing quality above scale is suitable under current real estate market trend, bode well for profitability.
• We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$2 to US$23 to reflect 1) the gross margin improvement, 2)narrower loss-making in new initiatives.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
• Lippo Karawaci
• Times China

• Akeso achieved outstanding product sales last year, mainly due to off-label prescriptions.It means Akeso has “overdrawn” AK104’s performance on other indications in advance. Sales could significantly slow down over time.
• It is difficult to turn loss into profit by selling drugs alone. As the profits from selling drugs are far lower than R&D expenditures, losses are the norm.
• Akeso is overvalued, but if AK112 is successful in head-to-head trial with Keytruda, Akeso would be a player to compete on international stage. Its valuation would reach a new level.

• ZTO guided at least 1.5ppt market share gain in 2023, which exceeds our previous expectation. 
• ZTO, leveraging its highest market share, is the most likely to expand its own end-to-end ecosystem, which leads to improvement in operating efficiency, increase of doorstep delivery, and pricing power.
• Maintain BUY and TP due to share gain, efficiency improvement, and early-mover advantage in expanding ecosystem. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• There were a bunch of rebalances on Friday across Asia resulting in big flows across multiple stocks and countries.
• The coming week is quieter with no scheduled rebalances – though the KOSDAQ 150 Index rebalance could take place dependent on Kuk Il Paper Mfg (078130 KS)‘s trading resumption. 
• Inflows to China and Taiwan ETFs while Korean ETFs had outflows. Market volatility resulted in redemptions from iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and IShares MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets (EEMV).

• 25% reduction on hardware cost of car production in one year would be remarkable if achieved
• Integrating two sales systems into one is a positive move, but not good enough in our view.
• Mr. He taking direct resposibility of styling design division is a sign that the company acknowledges that it is a key improvement area for estabilishing brand image

• PDD stock price has been increasingly driven by TEMU as of late, thanks to TEMU’s fast growth and aggressive geographical expansion.
• TEMU rollout introduces more variables to upcoming 4Q results , especially with regard to incremental investments that pose downside risks to earnings, which will sharply decelerate in 4Q and beyond.
• We are turning more constructive on TEMU, but acknowledge the challenges in trading off between topline growth and bottom line deceleration in a potentially prolonged tightening cycle. Stay neutral.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. China Jinmao Holdings
2. Lifestyle International Holdings
3. Geely Auto
4. First Pacific Co
5. Tata Motors Ltd

and more…

The Asia HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

• DPC Dash (1405 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$90m, after having shelved its last attempt to raise around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in December.
• The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 604 stores across 17 cities, as of Feb 2023.
• In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.

• We believe revenue will grow by 2.5% YoY in 4Q22 and 9% in 2023.
• We believe EPS will decrease by 62% YoY in 4Q22 and increase by 16% in 2023.
• We expect the stock has an upside of 42% for yearend 2023. Buy.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
• According to our estimation, there could be one ADD/DEL for the HSTECH in June 2023 triggering total one-way index flows of US$238mn.
• The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights will be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.

• The exclusive master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, DPC Dash’s IPO opened for subscriptions today at a price range of HK$ 46.0-55.0 per share.
• The IPO valuation is not particularly enticing to lure us as we don’t think it’s at a sufficient discount to Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)’s multiples.
• DPC Dash (1405 HK) is also relatively more expensive than Domino’s Pizza (DPZ US) master franchisees in other regions.

• The slight dip in FY22 earnings for AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK) is due to product restructuring at Avicopter (600038 CH) and higher impairment/fair value losses.
• It should return to growth track in the next two years, with rise in product demand, recovery in Avicopter, further restructuring and M&As being major drivers. 
• Share price has increased 15.9% YTD but it is just on 9.2x FY23 PER. Its market cap is at 58.5% discount to holdings in its four listed A-share subsidiaries. 

• Chinese solar wafer giant LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd. will partner with U.S. solar developer Invenergy to build a $600 million, 5-gigawatt solar panel assembly factory in Ohio
• The project will be LONGi’s first entrance into the U.S. manufacturing market.
• What will eventually be the largest crystalline silicon solar panel factory in the U.S. will create 850 jobs, and operations are expected to start by the end of 2023

• Giant Biogene has been added to Hong Kong Stock Connect.There’s also positive sentiment driven by the consumption recovery after China reopens. But the Company is overvalued if compared with peers.
• The subsequent product pipeline progress is relatively slow, with a gap of nearly two years in the middle. So, Giant Biogene’s stock price performance may be relatively weak after 2024.
• Due to various restrictions, the actual market space of collagen in the future may not be as large as expected. This is a point investors need to be aware of.

• Akeso reported C2H22 total sales, net revenue 41% and 67% above our estimates. Non-IFRS operating loss, however, was in-line with our estimate, thanks to higher OPEX; 
• Given Summit’s US$500mn upfront and up to US$5bn upfront payment for Ivonescimab (PD-1/VEGF) (AK112), we now forecast Akeso to achieve non-IFRS breakeven in C1H23 and all subsequent years;
• We raise TP by 18% to HK$59 and maintain BUY.

• The Link REIT (823 HK) rights offering caused some upset amongst investors. They got dilution where they did not need it, and de-leveraging from a REIT wanting to invest.
• The units fell in price, then fell some more. Then the rights started trading.
• Last week in Link REIT (823) – Nil Paid Rights Start Trading Tomorrow – The Trades I said strategy was to be long by Tuesday or Wednesday. It’s Wednesday.

• On the 17 February, AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) announced an Offer of HK$1.85/share (declared final) by way of a Scheme from major shareholder Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH).
• At a 10.1% premium to undisturbed and just a 2.2% premium over the highest closing price of HK$1.81/share in the past year, the Consideration price was unreasonable. 
• FY22 numbers are now out, which further illustrates the Offer price’s inadequacy. AAG’s trailing PER and EV/EBITDA are  3.6x and 1.4x. Net cash accounts for 41% of AAG’s market cap.

• Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) released solid FY22 results which magnify the scheme risk of Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)‘s pre-conditional privatisation offer of HK$1.85 per share.
• The FY22 metrics show that the offer values AAG at a lower EV/1P Reserve and EV/Production vs the 2018 offer. It is unattractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples.
• The solid FY22 results and lack of dividends amplify the risk that minorities vote NO. The downside is capped as the shares are trading below the undisturbed price.

• SVB Financial’s (SVBF) liquidity risk sparked by high interest rate is unlikely to happen on Futu, as the two have different asset structures and business models. 
• Futu is benefits under the rising interest rate environment, as its interest income generated from clients’ idle cash goes up, 
• With also help from the floating rate of margin financing and mortgage lending business. We maintain BUY rating and the TP at US$51.

• Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
• We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.28% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.95bn.
• The potential adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last two months but have underperformed the potential deletes. The gap has been narrowing recently.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Comba Telecom’s Executive Director and Group CFO, Ken Chang Fei Fu.

In the upcoming webinar, Mr Chang will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Osbert Tang. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

About Comba Telecom

Established in 1997 and listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2003 and the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange in 2013, Comba Telecom is a global leading wireless solutions provider with its own R&D facilities, manufacturing base, and sales and service teams. The Company offers a comprehensive suite of products and services including base station antennas and subsystems, wireless access, wireless enhancement, and wireless transmission to its global customers. Headquartered in Hong Kong, with manufacturing bases and R&D centres in China, Comba Telecom provides wireless communication solutions and information application services to customers in more than 100 countries and regions around the world.

• The logic of Duoning’s business layout is that self-produced upstream products reduce the cost and increase customer stickiness, then lock in the purchase of future customers from the source.
• Although lagging behind imported enterprises in product performance, the upstream production cost control is one of the driving forces for the localization of pharmaceutical supply chain. Duoning has growth potential.
• A slow-down or reversal of trend related to life sciences industry growth could have an adverse effect on Duoning’s business. Overseas sanctions and policy risks are also the concerns. 

• The strong travel demand in Jan. and Feb. had pushed up the industry-wide ADR nearing the 2019 level due the temporary hotel shortage, Atour especially benefited from the trend . 
• Except the positive industry trend, we think the releasing of requisitioned hotels and the expansion of Atour Light are the near-term catalyst for Atour. 
• We maintain the BUY rating and raise TP by US$1.5 to US$36.5

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.
• 291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.