China Archives | Page 42 of 154 | Smartkarma

• A Review on Final Results Oriental Watch recently announced its earnings for the fiscal year, and the results were quite impressive.
• On June 20, 2023, the company reported a revenue of HKD3.7 billion and a net profit of HKD295 million.
• These figures surpassed our initial estimates of HKD3.

• In my previous insight Dickson Concepts 113 HK: Straight From The Ben Graham Stable, >40% Discount to NCAV, I highlighted why one must explore the stock as a viable investment.
• NCAV (Net current asset value) in FY23 was 7.5 HKD/share ( Vs. current share price of 4.25 HKD/share), with net cash + ST/LT financial investments now at 9.7 HKD/share. 
• Absolute DPS ( dividend per share) was 35 cents representing a yield of 8.2% ( payout ratio of 55%). The trailing PE is 6.6x FY23. 

• InSilico ’s business model is more of AI-CXO + AI-SaaS, but hasn’t reached the stage of AI-biotech, considering its current revenue streams, which may lead to InSilico ultimately changing its positioning.
• The significance of pipeline lies in the need for InSilico to verify the effectiveness of AI platforms/algorithms/technology through successful product launch. However, valuation of InSilico could be different from biotech.
• AI pharmaceutical industry is at its infancy, which is a far cry from current levels of investment and expectations in the sector.We advise investors to be rational about this field.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Anton Oilfield
• Central China Securities

• My read of Bain’s Offer last month, was a tactic to flesh out a competing Offer.  It seemed unlikely Bain would get the regulatory approval to take Chindata (CD US) private. 
• Now state-backed China Merchants Capital Holdings International Ltd. has made a non-binding offer of $9.20/ADS, compared to $8/ADS from Bain.
• This Offer is indicative. But an SOE taking over data centres makes a lot of sense. 

• Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) has launched a partial offer to acquire a maximum of 125.0m shares (2.47% of outstanding) at HK$2.40 per share, a 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The partial offer is conditional on approval by more than 50% of disinterested shares and the shareholder approval of the whitewash waiver. There is no minimum acceptance condition.
• The 2020 partial offer, which was at a 9.3% premium to the undisturbed price and -17% below the current offer, was overwhelmingly approved. Therefore, the current offer should be approved.  

• Three weeks ahead of the global launch of TMNT Mutant Mayhem momentum is building
• Google Trends searches reveal rising interest in both movies and toys
• Risk/Reward is still highly attractive, last time a TMNT movie was a success stock hit 4 HKD

• Ant Group Co. Ltd. has offered to buy back some shares at a whopping 70% discount to the unrealized valuation for its ill-fated IPO, shortly after regulators hit the fintech giant with an almost $1 billion fine.
• Ant Group announced Saturday that it had proposed to repurchase as much as 7.6% at a price that values the company at approximately 567 billion yuan ($78 billion).
• The offer represents a roughly 40% discount to the approximate 960 billion yuan figure achieved in Ant Group’s last fundraising round in 2018, and is around 70% cheaper than the 2.1 trillion yuan valuation touted in its planned 2020 IPO.

• After analyzing J&T’s Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company’s ‘Others’ segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics
• Compared to China and SE Asia, J&T’s New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term
• We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&T’s EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)

• BeiGene and Novartis mutually terminate the Option Agreement on ociperlimab. Our interpretation is Novartis may think its clinical data wouldn’t meet expectations, and is therefore unwilling to take the risk.
• Theoretically, BeiGene still has the possibility of creating miracles to turn things around, but based on the current situation, the risk of TIGIT project failure is already very high.
• We suggest that investors can reduce the position of BeiGene in advance or even consider offload entirely (In case its stock price falls due to unsatisfactory clinical data in 23H2).

• Syngenta Group (1844795D CH) is looking to raise around US$9.2bn in its upcoming China A-share IPO.
• Syngenta Group (Syngenta) is one of the largest agricultural firms globally, developing, producing and commercializing a portfolio of crop protection, seeds, crop nutrition products.
• In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

• We expect that Tencent’s 2Q23’s rev./non-IFRS net income to be 0.2%/5.2% vs cons. 
• We raise Tencent’s ads growth in 2Q23 from 18.2% to 28.4% YoY per our recent checks with ads agencies. 
• There is an increasing possibility that “DNF Mobile” could be launched in the next several quarters. We raise the TP to $450, which implies 20.1X PE in 2023.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Agung Podomoro Land
• Shui On Land

• One third of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
• Passive trackers are estimated to trade around +/-0.5 days ADV on most of the potential adds/deletes, though there are some deletes that will have over 1 day ADV to sell.
• The potential inclusion to one or both indices have outperformed the potential deletes by a huge margin in the 5 months. We’d wait for a pullback to re-enter positions.

• Kelun-Biotech raised HKD 1,259m (USD 161m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, July 10th.
• In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products. We were of the view that the IPO is fairly priced, at best.
• In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

• China Merchants Capital (CMC) disclosed a competing preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire Chindata Group (CD US) at US$9.20 per ADS, a 15.0% premium to Bain Capital’s US$8.00 per ADS offer.
• Astonishingly, Chindata did not publicly disclose the CMC offer, which was sent to the special committee on 9 June, i.e., 34 days ago.
• CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to match CMC’s offer.

• We expect BABA to report C2Q23 (F1Q24) top-line and non-IFRS net income 2% and 21.5% vs. consensus. For C2Q23, we raised (1) Taobao/Tmall GMV/CMR estimates due to return of merchants, 
• (2) International Commerce and Cainiao revenue estimates, and (3) EBITA margin estimates for all groups except cloud. We maintain our BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 116 TP, 
• Due to 1) merchants return to Taobao/Tmall;  2) independent listing of groups; and 3) improved incentive structure after the organizational change.

• The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
• HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
• This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China SCE
• Hopson Development
• Reliance Industries
• Sino-Ocean Service
• Vedanta Resources

• PDD delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter and the company saw clear recovery trends.
• Revenue increased in the quarter and contributed to a total of RMB37.6 billion.
• PDD has also launched its electronic shopping season and invested millions of RMB for promoting universal and high-quality access to reading.

• Syngenta Group (1844795D CH) is looking to raise around US$9.2bn in its upcoming China A-share IPO.
• Syngenta Group (Syngenta) is one of the largest agricultural firms globally, developing, producing and commercializing a portfolio of crop protection, seeds, crop nutrition products.
• In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Unisound AI Technology (1053075D CH) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Haitong International.
• The firm offers AI solutions centered around its computing cluster, scheduling computing power for machine learning tasks. It provides support to the development, optimization and commercialization of frontier AI models. 
• Its computing cluster currently harbors a computing power of over 200 peta floating point operations per second (PFLOPS), and a storage capacity of over 1.6 petabytes (PB). 

• China’s regulators on Friday imposed Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) with a fine of RMB 7.12bn. A day later, Ant Group unveiled a share buyback program worth $6bn.
• The last time media created a positive narrative around Ant Group was in January 2023 when Jack Ma relinquished control of the company.
• However, the media excitement was short-lived as Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s share price quickly resumed a downward trend after rising by around 22%.

• CDF’s 1H23 preliminary results suggest that business recovery remains on track. Voices of bottom-fishing are getting louder as free fall in its share price already erased 50% market cap YTD.
• We believe the dynamics have fundamentally changed compared to three years ago when CDF was the stock market darling. Investors need be aware of the anchoring effect in making decisions.
• Moderate growth, pressured margin and contracted valuation multiple will be the new reality facing investors of the stock in our view. Wait for better entry point.

• Meituan’s food delivery has taken 20% of the Hong Kong market share in its first month’s operations.
• The authorities suggests that they will not further restrict financial apps such as AliPay of Ant Group.
• Tencent’s WeChat Pay charged a money transfer commission, but it exempted university campus the next day.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of “Uma Musume.” 
• We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI’s advertising business…
• …as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining “Sell” rating.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Sunny Optical Technology Group
• Tata Motors ADR
• Vedanta Resources
• Yanlord Land

• VBP would continue to have an impact on Hansoh’s generic drug business in 2023.Such negative impact would gradually fade from 2024 as big varieties have all been included in VBP.
• The core difference between Hansoh and Hengrui is that someone similar to Zhang Lianshan’s role arrived late, resulting in a slower start and weaker overall framework for innovation drug business.
• Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) is still in the process of business transformation. Before the harvest time of innovative drug pipeline comes, Hansoh’s valuation growth would still be a long-term story.

• Xiamen International Investment (1567256D HK) is looking to raise up to US$1.3bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Citic Securities, Huatai and Industrial Securities.
• Xiamen International Investment (XII) is an integrated financial services group based in China’s Greater Bay Area. 
• The Group has two commercial banks headquartered in Hong Kong and Macau, respectively and operates through its two banks Chiyu Banking Corporation (CYB) and Luso International Banking (LIB).

• The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been in a downtrend since January 2018. Long-term direction unclear, but the WEEKLY period is mildly OVERSOLD, it may bounce soon.
• The case for a LONG trade is valid if the market does not fall > 2 consecutive weeks from June 30th’s Close (18916.43). High-probability LONG trades from 17786.
• SHORT trade strategy possible but requires patience: if the market rises, it could rise for 2-3 weeks, based on MRM’s pattern readings. Better wait and short that scenario, not earlier.

• NHSA released the new NRDL negotiation rules of innovative drugs. Some adjustments will bring certain benefits to innovative drugs, but the overall impact will not be as good as expected. 
• Beijing announced that 16 assisted reproduction technologies will be covered by medical insurance reimbursement from July 1. This policy should benefit companies in the assisted reproduction industry chain.
• We analyzed the key flaws of Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK), and we remain skeptical about this company.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Greentown China
2. First Pacific Co
3. Vedanta Resources
4. China Jinmao Holdings
5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Greentown China
2. First Pacific Co
3. Vedanta Resources
4. China Jinmao Holdings
5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

• RoboSense Technology, one of the leading providers of LiDAR sensor systems and AI perception software, filed for a Hong Kong IPO with J.P. Morgan and China Renaissance leading the offering.
• RoboSense Technology is a high-growth mass producer of LiDAR products with mounting operating losses. The company is growing revenue in double digits and still has heavy losses.  
• I believe RoboSense Technology IPO is risky due to the company’s high cash burn rate, fierce competition, pricing pressure and unhealthy fundamentals. Moreover, LiDAR stocks continue to underperform.

• In this insight, we take a look at some of the names with high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.
• The index changes for the September 2023 rebalance could be announced in mid-August and implemented in early-September.
• Although the index methodology is highly subjective and predicting index changes is extremely tricky, the HSI is an important index in the region and here are our thoughts for September. 

• Three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games. 3) Market over-optimism regarding new games and AI.
• NetEase still has some positive catalysts in the long term, including: 1) New games and content expansions. 2) Overseas game publishing. 3) Continual improvement in margins.
• We expect NetEase’s revenue in 2Q23 to be slightly lower than the consensus estimates of 2.5%, with a 13.3% beat in profits. Cut TP to $102, but maintain BUY rating.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Greentown China
• Yuexiu Property

• Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is looking to raise around US$300m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JPM and China Renaissance.
• As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.
• As of Mar 23, it had served the largest number of automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, according to CIC.

• Zhejiang Yongtai Tech A (002326 CH) is looking to raise US$107m in its London GDR listing. Huatai is the sole bookrunner on the deal.
• The firm is offering 11.4m GDRs (1 GDR to 5 ordinary A-shares) for sale, at a fixed 12.7% discount to last close on its A-share leg.
• The deal is a relatively small one for the firm to digest, representing just 3.9 days of three month ADV on its A-share leg.

• Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
• Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note we will talk about valuations.

• We finally got to 80 Hang Seng Index constituents in June. Now comes the next step of moving up to 100 index constituents though there is no timeline for completion.
• The conclusions of the market consultation on the inclusion of foreign stocks in the Hang Seng Index should be announced soon though implementation could start only in December.
• We highlight 10 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.5-5.6 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.

• We spoke with the management of Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK). The key highlight is a steady recovery for FY24e and an overall expansion of 60% in three years. 
• Expansion plans in HK (75% of revenue) have commenced, with ten centers opening over the year, adding to the existing 22 HK centers (one already opened in June 2023).
• They also highlighted an aggressive long-term goal of making one bn HKD of profit by FY26 (Mkt cap: 4.8 bn HKD) and short-term guidance of 30-40% profit growth for FY24e. 

• Key customers & their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies
• Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring & friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive
• Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile

• Back On 29 September 2019, Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) entered into a subscription agreement with Hopu-affiliate Aero Infrastructure, for 200mn new H shares at HK$4.69/share.
• That issuance failed as CSRC approval was not secured by the Long Stop. Hopu reckoned HMIA reneged on its duties to secure approval and lodged a notice of arbitration.
• HKIAC recently agreed and opines HMIA did not use its best endeavours to complete the subscription. Hopu is seeking up to HK$6.962bn in compensation. Quite the overhang.

• Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) is a newly listed China edtech company that focuses on tutoring for China civil servant exams.  
• The company’s share price was caught by a perfect storm in June, dropping by as much as 70% during the month.
• Very interesting opportunity to have exposure to a quality company in a sector that is very different from K12 tutoring.  

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

• Silver Dragon Water Supply Group (2210081D CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are HSBC and Huatai International.
• Silver Dragon Water Supply Group (SDW) is principally engaged in the supply of tap water, raw water and pipeline direct drinking water in China.
• As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm had the largest water pipeline network in terms of water pipeline length among all water supply companies in China in 2022.

• We expect PDD to report 1Q23’s revenue and non-GAAP net income (5.4%) and (5.6%) vs. consensus, respectively.
• Taobao/Tmall and JD launched more subsidy campaigns in 2Q23 to strengthen their low-cost mindsets among customers, while PDD remains to be more restrained, which might lead to decelerating top-line growth.
• We cut PDD’s FY23 EPS by 3.7% and TP to US$ 88 on slower 2Q23 top-line growth and increasing Temu costs, but maintain its BUY rating.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Country Garden Holdings Co
• First Pacific Co

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Country Garden Holdings Co
• First Pacific Co

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety. 
• Post the interim results, we provide short updates on each company and links to our latest work on them. 
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Water Oasis (1161 HK), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM).

• Alibaba’s new chairman decides to provide logistics service to outside customers.
• We believe Alibaba is following JD Logistics, as both companies have large retailer bases.
• We suggest buying JD Logistics the role model instead of Alibaba the follower.

• Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are high probability deletions in September, while Trip.com (9961 HK) is a high probability inclusion.
• The second add could be BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) if it passes the velocity test. If not, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) will be added.
• With the exception of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.

• Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
• There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.

• Great Wall Motor Co. Ltd. (601633.SH +2.50%) said on Wednesday that it will enter the Vietnamese market in August with its Haval H6 hybrid model, while a broader plan to build an assembly plant for new-energy vehicles in the country is set for 2025.
• The Haval H6s will initially be exported to Vietnam from its manufacturing facility in Rayong, Thailand, the Hebei-based carmaker said earlier.
• Vietnam is the fourth-largest auto market in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region after Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, according to 2022 passenger car sales figures released by the ASEAN Automotive Federation.

• We recently discussed BABA’s management changes with more e-commerce practitioners, and our main conclusion is that this change will be more beneficial to BABA’s e-commerce business rather than other subsidiaries;
• BABA is expected to learn from Tencent and ByteDance by shifting from a centralized authority model to a racehorse mechanism. Some subsidiaries, especially AliCloud and Cainiao, undergo a painful transformation;
• This may be good news for BABA because its e-commerce  is the largest of its valuation. We also remind investors to exercise caution regarding the upcoming IPOs of BABA subsidiaries.

• YZY is a company that is serious about drug development However, there is actually high R&D risk of its pipeline candidates. So, YZY’s R&D capability has yet to be proven.
• There are still many unanswered questions in the whole direction of bispecific antibody. If YZY’s candidates fail to prove better marginal clinical benefits, they won’t have good commercialization performance. 
• YZY has a long way to go based on its pipeline situation. Considering Wuhan YZY Biopharma (YZY HK) has no product in commercialization stage, its valuation may not be high.

• Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination
• BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth
• PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk

• S.F. Holding (002352 CH) (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
• SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Qiniu Limited (1045102D CH) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Qiniu Limited (Qiniu) is a one-stop scenario-based intelligent audiovisual service provider.
• According to iResearch, the firm is the third largest audiovisual platform as a service (PaaS) provider in China in terms of FY22 revenue, with a market share of 5.7%.