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China Archives | Page 34 of 154 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Nws Holdings, Haitong International Securities Group, China Vanke (H), BYD , Cainiao Smart Logistics, PDD Holdings , Sonoscape Medical Corp, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (01 Oct) – Cainiao, Kokusai, Doosan, IMAX China, Keiyo, Toyo, Liontown
  • Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) – NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem
  • Haitong International (665 HK): Haitong Securities Ponders an Offer
  • Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 28Sep23) : Meituan, Tencent, Kuaishou and Banks
  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28Sep23) : Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green BUYS, BYD a SELL
  • Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction
  • Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters
  • High Conviction Update: Sonoscape (300633.CH) – Stock Price to Rebound After Temporary Headwinds
  • Lalatech IPO: New Filing’s H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions



Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) – NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

By Arun George


Haitong International (665 HK): Haitong Securities Ponders an Offer

By Arun George

  • Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 27 September. 
  • Bloomberg reported that Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), the controlling shareholder, plans to buy the remainder of Haitong International to stem its losses.
  • Privatisation through a Bermuda scheme involves the headcount test, so a decent premium is required – privatisation precedents suggest HK$1.08-1.13 per share offer (52%-59% premium to last close). 

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 28Sep23) : Meituan, Tencent, Kuaishou and Banks

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw HKD 14.0bn+ of net buying. That makes 11 weeks of net inflows.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28Sep23) : Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green BUYS, BYD a SELL

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw RMB 17.5bn+ of net selling. Back to the trenches!

Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

By Ming Lu

  • We talk about what we see and hear here on the ground, that the company may not mention in its prospectus.
  • We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors since the company’s inception.
  • We also believe Cainiao has been trying to take competitors’ market share by taking their client lists.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

By Eric Chen

  • We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.
  • While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.
  • Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.  

High Conviction Update: Sonoscape (300633.CH) – Stock Price to Rebound After Temporary Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sonoscape maintained strong growth momentum in 23H1. Profit margin further improved. The Company has entered a stage where scale effect has emerged. However, declining contract liability balance raised our concern.
  • Japanese companies setting up factories in China would shake competitive landscape of the domestic market. The anti-corruption campaign could lead to “unexpected impact” on performance in 23H2. 
  • We lowered 2023 revenue forecast to RMB2 billion. After negative factors are fully priced in, share price would rebound. 

Lalatech IPO: New Filing’s H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
  • Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
  • Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (1st Oct 2023) – Cainiao, J&T, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Ecopro, Leapmotor, Bajaj Finance
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) – Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong


ECM Weekly (1st Oct 2023) – Cainiao, J&T, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Ecopro, Leapmotor, Bajaj Finance

By Sumeet Singh


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) – Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We have discovered something interesting from the innovative drug evaluations disclosed by the NMPA over the years. It’s recommended to establish rational expectations for the investment return of biopharmaceutical industry.
  • We analyzed the different situations faced by Biotech in IPO/M&A process, so as to help investors make rational judgments. R&D team is likely to be cut regardless of the circumstances.
  • We updated views on Huadong. Its old businesses dragged down valuation. It may need to wait until Huadong delivers better-than-expected sales/profit growth in weight-loss management business before further boosting valuation.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Baidu , Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings, Vedanta Resources, 4Paradigm, Shiyue Daotian, EC Healthcare, China Petroleum & Chemical Cor, Huawei Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent/Netease: Zeroed for Two Rounds of Game Approval
  • SMIC’s Semi Shocker
  • Baidu: Back in the Mix
  • Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24
  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023
  • 4Paradigm: Fears About The Entity List Are Exaggerated, Bullish On AI and SageGPT, PT: HK$86
  • Shiyue Daotian IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Surging Revenue; Poised for Profitability Improvement; Future Looks Bright
  • China’s Sinopec Dives Deeper Into Geothermal Energy
  • Huawei Unveils New Products Boasting Self-Developed Chips


Tencent/Netease: Zeroed for Two Rounds of Game Approval

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for September batch. The number of games approved is in-line with the pace of approval in recent month.
  • Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Neither Tencent or Netease received approval for any game. Same thing happened for July batch.

SMIC’s Semi Shocker

By William Keating

  • The latest Mate 60 Kirin SOC is a major accomplishment for the Huawei, SMIC combo
  • SMIC will likely continue to refine their N+2 node and develop a 5nm-like process within 2-3 years, even without the use of EUV
  • SMIC’s accomplishment is not reflected in its share price which lies midways between 52 week highs & lows

Baidu: Back in the Mix

By Steven Holden

  • After a heavy decline in ownership between 2016 and 2020, active Asia Ex-Japan managers are re-engaging with Baidu Inc.
  • Ownership levels are at 4-year highs, with Baidu one of the key beneficiaries of manager rotation this year.
  • Baidu is the 3rd largest holding in the Communication Services sector, but there a plenty of funds with a history of ownership who remain on the sidelines for now.

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nike (NKE US) reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. 
  • Nike’s inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou’s sales.
  • Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. 

Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Tata Steel Ltd
  3. JSW Steel Ltd
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


4Paradigm: Fears About The Entity List Are Exaggerated, Bullish On AI and SageGPT, PT: HK$86

By Andrei Zakharov

  • 4Paradigm, a self-developed AI platform and scenario-specific AI applications provider, has completed an IPO and raised net proceeds of ~HK$836M, excluding the over-allotment option. 
  • Founder-Led AI unicorn priced its IPO at the bottom end of the range at HK$55.60 per share. Cornerstone investors agreed to purchase ~13.6M H shares at the IPO price. 
  • I like the company’s leadership position in China’s fastest-growing decision-making AI market, large TAM for their enterprise-grade generative AI offering SageGPT and top-tier VC investors. 

Shiyue Daotian IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Shiyue Daotian (1892269D CH) is looking to raise up to US$108m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$200m.
  • Shiyue Daotian is a pantry staple food company in China, providing consumers with pre-packaged premium rice, whole grain, bean, and dried food products.
  • In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates and share our thoughts on valuation.

EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Surging Revenue; Poised for Profitability Improvement; Future Looks Bright

By Tina Banerjee

  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK) reported record high revenue of HK$3.9B in FY23 and started FY24 on a strong note, with Q1FY24 revenue increasing 23% YoY, driven by medical services segment.
  • Cost pressure is negatively impacting the bottom line. The company is reporting decelerating EBITDA and net profit margins since FY20. ROE deteriorated to 4.5% in FY23 from 33% in FY19.
  • The company is well-positioned to see turnaround in profitability with the resumption of Mainland China visitors in Hong Kong providing impetus to high margin earning aesthetic business and cost optimization.

China’s Sinopec Dives Deeper Into Geothermal Energy

By Caixin Global

  • China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the state-owned energy giant known as Sinopec, is making a bigger push into a renewable energy generated by heat within the earth as the country looks to diversify its sources of green energy.
  • Sinopec’s push could serve as a catalyst for fast-tracking the exploration and use of geothermal energy, and spur the development of related technologies in the country, experts said.
  • The company said on social media on Sept. 14 that it was expecting a “major development” in its geothermal heating segment and that it was on track to expand its service to more than 60 cities in over 10 regions in China by the end of the year.

Huawei Unveils New Products Boasting Self-Developed Chips

By Caixin Global

  • Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. launched a line of new products this week, including a tablet and smart TV, powered by self-developed chips, in its latest show of semiconductor self-sufficiency in the face of U.S. sanctions.
  • The fall season launch event on Monday came a month after the tech giant made headlines with the rollout of its new flagship smartphone the Mate 60 Pro — a handset using Huawei’s own Kirin 9000s chip that reviewers claimed can rival 5G speeds.
  • During the launch event, the head of Huawei’s consumer division, Richard Yu, spent much of his time on stage measuring the company’s new MatePad Pro tablet against Apple’s iPad Pro.

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Daily Brief China: Hengan International Group, Cainiao Smart Logistics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hengan/Vinda: Pulp Friction
  • Cainiao Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth Still Driven by China Ops, Pricing Pressure Persists


Hengan/Vinda: Pulp Friction

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and Vinda International (3331 HK) are both market leaders in China’s personal care industry.
  • Hengan’s operations have greater exposure to sanitary napkins and diapers; whereas tissues account for 83% of Vinda’s revenue. Both companies have been impacted by an increase in wood pulp prices.
  • Hengan is trading cheap; but Vinda’s bottom line is forecast to return to its glory days. Plus rumours of a possible takeover of Vinda continue to do the rounds. 

Cainiao Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth Still Driven by China Ops, Pricing Pressure Persists

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cainiao Smart Logistics, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief China: Haitong International Securities Group, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Li Ning, 4Paradigm, HKEX, MedSci Healthcare Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haitong Int’l Securities (665 HK): Possible Offer From Parent
  • Cainiao Pre-IPO – The Postivies – Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth
  • Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: Lacks Viability as a Standalone Business
  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  No Positive Catalysts In Sight
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • HKEX (388 HK) – Exceptional Cost Controls, New Revenue Streams, Quarterly Profit Momentum
  • 4Paradigm IPO Trading – Low Insti Subscription and Small Float
  • MedSci Healthcare Holdings (2415.HK) – Lack of Control over Core Resources Is a Critical Pain Point


Haitong Int’l Securities (665 HK): Possible Offer From Parent

By David Blennerhassett

  • Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK) (HITSEC) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong’s Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
  • The rumour doing the rounds is that Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH) (HSC) may take private its 73.4%-held Hong Kong-listed investment banking unit.
  • HITSEC’s share performance since 1Q18 has been tragic. Financials have been dire since 2H20.  But expect a punchy premium if HTS does seek to take HITSEC private. 

Cainiao Pre-IPO – The Postivies – Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cainiao Smart LogisticsAlibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: Lacks Viability as a Standalone Business

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)‘s logistics arm, Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), filed for an IPO with HKEX yesterday, aiming to raise $1bn to $2bn.
  • Although efficient, Cainiao may face business challenges, as the majority of logistics costs and revenues stem from services outsourced to logistics partners.
  • Despite the proposed IPO, we believe that Cainiao will always operate in the shadow of Alibaba’s primary e-commerce business.

Li Ning (2331 HK):  No Positive Catalysts In Sight

By Steve Zhou, CFA


4Paradigm IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm has priced its IPO at HK$55.60 per share, at the bottom end of the indicative IPO price range of HK$55.6-61.16 per share and raised net proceeds of HK$835.5m.
  • The HK offering and the international offering of the company were oversubscribed by 11.4x and 1.57x respectively implying very moderate demand for the company’s shares.
  • Though priced at the bottom of the indicative IPO price range, our analysis suggests that 4Paradigm’s IPO is still expensive.

HKEX (388 HK) – Exceptional Cost Controls, New Revenue Streams, Quarterly Profit Momentum

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HKEX (388 HK) announced strong results, defying some worsening trends in volume, new listings, with quarterly profit growth rising from 11% to 28% to 34% YoY from 4Q22 to 2Q23
  • Cost controls have been key to 31% 1H23 profit growth, with 0% growth depreciation, amortization, financing costs, and taxation, which can continue to support profit delta
  • Revenue growth of 18-19% YoY in each of the past 2 quarters is partly driven by new revenue streams, which can offset some weaknesses in traditional metrics

4Paradigm IPO Trading – Low Insti Subscription and Small Float

By Ethan Aw

  • 4Paradigm (6682 HK) raised around US$131m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • 4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC. 
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

MedSci Healthcare Holdings (2415.HK) – Lack of Control over Core Resources Is a Critical Pain Point

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MedSci’s all three businesses are targeting B-end customers (pharmaceutical and medical device companies) to generate revenue. In the context of VBP and anti-corruption campaign, B-end customers do have relevant needs.
  • However, the binding between MedSci and hospitals isn’t deep, which would lead to MedSci being unable to grasp core medical resources, with weak bargaining power in front of B-end customers.
  • Since the initiative is in the hands of the other parties not in MedSci, MedSci’s revenue growth/scale could be much lower-than-expected. This would suppress valuation and stock price performance.

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Daily Brief China: Sun Hung Kai Properties, CK Infrastructure Holdings, Tian Tu Capital, Kanzhun, Bitcoin, Gree Electric Appliances, Onewo , Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Sipai Health Technology, UMP Healthcare and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North
  • StubWorld: CK Infra Vs. Power Assets
  • Tian Tu Capital IPO – Even with a Wide Price Range, Upside Seems Limited
  • Kanzhun (2076 HK): A Monitor of Job Market in China
  • The JPEX Debacle Placed Hong Kong’s Ambition to Become a Global Virtual Assets Centre in Doubt
  • Gree (000651 CH):  Resilient Fundamentals; Rerating Potential In A Low Interest Rate Environment
  • Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic
  • Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) – Valuation Has Collapsed, but a Reversal Is Not yet in Sight
  • UMP Healthcare 722 HK: Weak Q4 Lead to A Disappointing FY23, Worst Behind Us


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Yantai North Andre Juice H (2218 HK).

StubWorld: CK Infra Vs. Power Assets

By David Blennerhassett

  • Because of significant business overlap, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) looks very similar to Power Assets Holdings (6 HK). And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH. 
  • Preceding my comments on CKI/PAH are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Tian Tu Capital IPO – Even with a Wide Price Range, Upside Seems Limited

By Clarence Chu

  • Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise up to US$253m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
  • In this note, we will look at the updates since our last note and share our thoughts on valuation.

Kanzhun (2076 HK): A Monitor of Job Market in China

By Ming Lu

  • Kanzhun or Boss Zhipin, is the largest online recruiting platform for white collar workers.
  • Users exceeded servers’ capacity for the third time this year.
  • The positive signal is that recruiters began to grow in 2Q23.

The JPEX Debacle Placed Hong Kong’s Ambition to Become a Global Virtual Assets Centre in Doubt

By Fern Wang

  • JPEX may be the biggest financial fraud in Hong Kong’s history, impacting government’s ambition to become a global centre for virtual assets
  • SFC appeared to have no direct jurisdiction and powerless in the protection of investors in the JPEX case
  • Web 3.0 and Virtual Assets are rapidly evolving, regulators may need to take a more dynamic approach in regulating such activities

Gree (000651 CH):  Resilient Fundamentals; Rerating Potential In A Low Interest Rate Environment

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH) trades at the lowest valuation multiple among the three major home appliance companies in China, at 7x forward PE and 7% forward yield.
  • Investment case rests on stable earnings growth and high dividend payout and yield, which works well in a low interest rate environment in China.
  • Resiliency of earnings for Gree is under-appreciated by the market, making rerating possible.

Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
  • OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK).
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) has rallied sharply on strong earnings recovery, but this is too excessive. We think unrealistic expectation has been built on 2H23 earnings.
  • Over the last three months, the spot VLCC rate has collapsed by 90%, indicating a weakened demand outlook. The resilient share price has clearly not yet factored in this movement. 
  • The recent surge in crude oil is driven by supply, not demand, factors. This has led to a 14% increase in bunker price which will heighten CSET’s fuel bill.  

Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) – Valuation Has Collapsed, but a Reversal Is Not yet in Sight

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The reason why there are many doubts about Sipai is that its Specialty Pharmacy Business accounts for dominant proportion of total revenue but is almost difficult to make a profit.
  • Sipai’s SMO business revenue will be difficult to grow at scale due to industry characteristics and the Health Insurance Services business is too small to bring substantial changes to performance.
  • Sipai’s revenue structure/business model is difficult to improve in the short term. So it’s not surprising if Sipai suffers long-term losses. Its valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr.

UMP Healthcare 722 HK: Weak Q4 Lead to A Disappointing FY23, Worst Behind Us

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported FY23 profits down 26% YoY at 55 mn HKD, impacted by preoperating expenses and an impairment cumulatively of 40 mn HKD. 
  • A slow Q4 FY23 didn’t help either; revenues came in flat HoH instead of up 10% as our expectations and costs increased resulting in margin compression. 
  • We believe the worst is behind us. The stock trades at 5.9x FY24 PE, with ~50% of the market cap in cash and an FY24 dividend yield of 8.5%.

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Daily Brief China: Tuhu Car, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Trip.com, Bank of Jiangsu , Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading
  • Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)
  • Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group – Some Points Worth the Attention


Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) raised around US$151m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) (LM) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. The stock was listed in Sep 2022, its lockup on pre-IPO investors will expire on 29th Sep 2023.
  • LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
  • The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August — what do airlines see ahead?
  • Is there really “pent-up” tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don’t think so

Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth
  • Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank’s pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver
  • Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.

Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Yuanxin’s financial performance has not improved and it is still in a state of continuous loss. At such low gross margin level, Yuanxin will find it difficult to make money.
  • As China’s retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down, the challenges Yuanxin has to face would be different from before.
  • When the market pattern has been basically determined, Yuanxin has little chance to break through. Being acquired may be a better outcome. If IPO, valuation would be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief China: China Mobile, ENM Holdings, China Vanke (H), Water Oasis, BYD , Lonking Holdings, Huawei Technology, S.F. Holding, Redsun Properties Group Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23):  Financials & Communications Dominate Flows
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023
  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex
  • Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place
  • Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)
  • Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd


Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare

By Arun George


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23):  Financials & Communications Dominate Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023

By Sameer Taneja


Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw small net buying for the first week in seven.

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While valuations for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.
  • There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months. 
  • The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.
  • BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.
  • BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies’ ASPs fell by far more
  • Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
  • We think SF Holding should outperform its “plain vanilla” express peers in medium-term

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical, Sunac Services Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , ICBC (H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) – Medical Device VBP, Restore Optimism on Healthcare, Biokin Pharma
  • Sunac Services (1516 HK):  Positive Development From Debt Restructuring Of Parent Company
  • ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) – Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC
  • China’s New List Of D-SIBs’ Capital Buffer Is Wearing Thin For Some


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) – Medical Device VBP, Restore Optimism on Healthcare, Biokin Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables such as intraocular lens (IOL) and sports medicine medical consumables is about to begin. We listed the companies that could be affected.
  • The instability of policies seems to be a consensus among investors regarding China healthcare. However, if truly understand the logic behind policy changes and industry shifts, investors will maintain optimism.
  • We analyzed the key points of Biokin. Its valuation is ridiculously high considering the current pipeline situation and commercialization outlook. We think the bubble will eventually burst (e.g. 50% downside).

Sunac Services (1516 HK):  Positive Development From Debt Restructuring Of Parent Company

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • On September 21, a debt restructuring agreement was reached with debt holders of Sunac China, in which part of the agreement included Sunac Services shares.
  • The debt restructuring for Sunac China should provide a positive feedback loop to the sentiment and fundamentals of Sunac Services.
  • The core property management business (86% of sales) grew 8% yoy in 1H23, with total gross floor area growing by 12% yoy. 

ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) – Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

By Sumeet Singh


China’s New List Of D-SIBs’ Capital Buffer Is Wearing Thin For Some

By Fern Wang

  • PBOC and NAFR included Bank of Nanjing in its latest D-SIBs list, increasing the total D-SIBs to 20
  • 13 benchmarks were used to assess the D-SIBs using 1H23 data
  • All D-SIBs fulfilled their additional capital requirements as of 1H23, but the buffer is wearing thin for some especially in view of the difficult economic environment 

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Hang Seng Index, Vedanta Resources and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023


China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results

By Eric Chen

  • The sector sees dramatic improvement in profitability and cashflow thanks to cutback on marketing expenses and headcount reduction.
  • Topline growth is recovering but still clouded by sluggish macro conditions. It is understandable that investors treat these China proxies – one way or another – with caution.
  • The sector’s valuation will remain pressured before the property market stabilizes and key macro indicators show concrete signs of improvement, in our view.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Greentown China
  3. China Vanke
  4. First Pacific Co
  5. JSW Infrastructure

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Greentown China
  3. China Vanke
  4. First Pacific Co
  5. JSW Infrastructure

and more…


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars