China Archives | Page 151 of 155 | Smartkarma

In this briefing:

1. Are US Stocks Still Expensive?
2. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Container Rates Up
3. Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” – Week Ending December 22, 2018
4. Singapore REIT – Preferred Picks 2019
5. Micron’s Guidance Bombshell Signals Troubled Times Ahead For Beleaguered Semiconductor Segment

1. Are US Stocks Still Expensive?

There are striking parallels between 1929 and 2018.  

The 1929 crash put a halt to a nine-year bull run on the market.

Up until October 1929, same as this year, market consensus was that asset prices could only go up from their current level.

As we mentioned in When the Tide Goes Out, Dominoes Fall, a decade of building up excesses meant a painful burst, back 79 years ago: between October of 1929 and September of 1932, eighty-nine percent of the value of stocks was erased and the market didn’t recover to its former peak until 25 years later.

Are we in a similar situation right now? 

2. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Container Rates Up

Tracking Traffic/Containers & Air Cargo is the hub for all of our research on container shipping and air cargo, featuring analysis of monthly industry data, notes from our conversations with industry participants, and links to recent company and thematic pieces. 

Tracking Traffic/Containers & Air Cargo aims to highlight changes to existing trends, relationships, and views affecting the leading Asian companies in these two sectors. This month’s note includes data from about twenty different sources.

In this issue readers will find:

3. Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” – Week Ending December 22, 2018

Highlights of significant recent happenings include:

4. Singapore REIT – Preferred Picks 2019

With the FTSE ST REIT index’s decline of 9.3% year-to-date, value has emerged for some of the bellwether names in the Singapore REITs sector. The forward yield spread between these REITs and the Singapore government 10-year bond yield (2.13%) currently stand at least 390 basis points. In view of the increasing concerns over global economic growth, rising interest rates and the ongoing trade tension between the US and China, I present three quality REITs with fortified portfolios that are well-positioned to weather the near-term market uncertainties. They possess growth potential from acquisitions, positive rental reversions and deliver resilient forward distribution yield of more than 6%. Some of the bellwether names in the more resilient retail REIT sector, while offering lower yield of around 5.0% – 5.7%, are also in my buy list. 

5. Micron’s Guidance Bombshell Signals Troubled Times Ahead For Beleaguered Semiconductor Segment

After months of skirting around inventory build-up and a weakening demand outlook, Micron used their latest earnings report to call closing time on a revenue and profitability party that began in Q4 2016 and just got better and better with each passing quarter. 

Micron reported Q1 FY2019 results on December 18’th and while revenues were largely in line with recently lowered guidance from the company, their outlook for both Q2 and 2019 as a whole was worse than even the most bearish of expectations. 

Citing high inventory levels at key customers, Micron guided Q2 FY2019 revenues for $6 billion at the midpoint, down a staggering $1.9 billion, 24% QoQ and 18% YoY. At the same time, Micron revised down their CY2019 bit demand growth forecast for both DRAM (from 20% to 16%) and NAND (35%, the bottom of the previously forecasted range). The company plans to adjust both CapEx and bit supply output downwards to match.

In the wake of their guidance bombshell, Micron’s share price closed down almost 8% the following day to end the session at $31.41, a level last seen in August 2017. Micron is unique in reporting out of sync with its industry peers, making it the proverbial canary in a coal mine. The company’s gloomy outlook and clarion call for further CapEx reductions in a bid to rebalance supply and demand spells troubled times ahead for an already beleaguered semiconductor segment ahead of the upcoming earnings season. 

In this briefing:

1. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express & Logistics: Parcel Pricing Weak, Again
2. Reforms/US-Canada-China/ Economic Gloom/Bike Crash/Stocks
3. China’s Sluggish Inbound Tourism Industry
4. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
5. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019

1. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express & Logistics: Parcel Pricing Weak, Again

Tracking Traffic/Chinese Express & Logistics is the hub for our research on China’s express parcels and logistics sectors. Tracking Traffic/Chinese Express & Logistics features analysis of monthly Chinese express and logistics data, notes from our conversations with industry players, and links to company and thematic notes. 

This month’s issue covers the following topics:

2. Reforms/US-Canada-China/ Economic Gloom/Bike Crash/Stocks

China News That Matters

• No one dictates to China but me
• US targets Chinese hackers as rift widens
• Weak data raise pressure for stimulus
• After high-speed climb, bike-share giant collapses
• A brighter new year for China’s stock market?

3. China’s Sluggish Inbound Tourism Industry

How can we explain the fact that in the five years from 2012 the number of tourist visits to China fell from 11.6 to 10.5 million per year? True, business and family reunion visits have risen, but such a culturally rich country should have more tourists.

4. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM’s price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

5. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019

In a follow up to my note from last year Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018 I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2018, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending.

Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance in a brutal year for Asian Stock Markets:

4 out of 5 had a positive performance.

Below I will make a new attempt to provide five high conviction ideas going into 2019.

In this briefing:

1. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
2. Chinese Telecoms: Recent Meetings Suggest a Benign Capex Outlook, but There Are Risks over 5G.
3. SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount
4. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
5. Tencent Music (TME): Both Live Video and Music Fairly Valued, No Action

1. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War

• Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
• But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
• After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 

2. Chinese Telecoms: Recent Meetings Suggest a Benign Capex Outlook, but There Are Risks over 5G.

At recent meetings with the Chinese operators and China Tower (788 HK), Alastair Jones came away convinced the operators were not looking at a massive 5G capex burst in 2019. However, Alastair also worries that in the end, the decision is not made by the operators but with an eye to larger policy issues. With Huawei/ZTE under pressure and the China/US trade was simmering the risks to capex have increased. That said, we do not expect large scale 5G capex in 1H19 and with capacity utilization of the networks low their may even be room for further capex declines.  We look for more details of 5G plans to be released in 1Q19.

3. SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount

Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular expectation was that the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO should be a catalyst to narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). On its trading debut today, SoftBank Corp’s shares fell 14.5% from its IPO price of JPY1,500 to JPY1,282 per share – the worst first-day decline ever for a major IPO in Japan since the Japan Display (6740 JP) IPO in 2014. 

4. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly

SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chain for the electronics industry, published three different forecasts for wafer fab equipment (WFE) sales in the past week. While the forecasts differ in approach and detail, they all agree on one thing, WFE revenues are continuing to fall and the outlook for 2019 is sharply down on previous estimates.

Specifically, Q4 2018 WFE revenues are set to decline 20.8% or $3.3 billion QoQ and the forecast which had just six months ago predicted 7% growth in 2019 is now calling for an 8% decline next year. 

These latest forecasts cast a dark shadow over the predictions of the leading WFE manufacturers that H1 2019 would be stronger than H2 2018 and we anticipate a strong downward revision of forward guidance in the upcoming earnings season. 

There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon however as SEMI forecasts a strong rebound in the second half of 2019 leading to a return to growth of ~20% in 2020. Let’s see.  

5. Tencent Music (TME): Both Live Video and Music Fairly Valued, No Action

• We believe that TME is fairly valued based on peer companies’ price / sales ratios.
• The Chinese internet peer companies as comparison bases in valuation have declined significantly more than indices, we believe it is not a concern that indices declined further.
• We believe that the main business of music will grow strongly in 2019 and 2020 due to the rapid growth of both the paying user base and ARPU (Average Revenues per User per month).

In this briefing:

1. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals
2. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships
3. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
4. Is China Losing the Soft Power Battle?
5. Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)

1. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

• US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.
• Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.
• Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.
• Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.

2. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships

• We’ve reviewed 10 companies in the sector. Of those, three are the consensus favorites of our Tokyo based panel of industry, financial and economics observers of the IR initiative over many years.
• Based on pachinko alone, the stocks of these companies are fully valued. Based on potential tailwind from a license award within 6 months, they could be vastly undervalued.
• Each of the three noted here brings strength to a bid less based on financials than corporate focus, outlook and experience in the field.

3. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

4. Is China Losing the Soft Power Battle?

Recent figures show China slipping down the Soft Power Index while Chinese language learning in the USA is also in decline. Have tighter controls over education policy and restrictions on academic freedom in China spooked the crowd?

5. Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)

Hansoh Pharma, a leading generic pharmaceutical manufacturer, filed an application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this insight, we will cover the following topics:

• Hansoh Pharma’s core products and major pipeline drug candidates.
• The industry backdrop.
• The company’s shareholders and investors.

• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

In this briefing:

1. AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: What You Need to Know Before the Trading Debut
2. Harbin Electric Expected To Be Privatised
3. Luzhou City Commercial Bank IPO (泸州市商业银行) Trading Update – Low Liquidity, as Expected
4. How the Bear Market Could End
5. Discover HK Connect: Mainlanders Are Buying Shandong Gold, and Pharmaceuticals (2018-12-17)

1. AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: What You Need to Know Before the Trading Debut

AsiaInfo Tech priced its IPO at HKD 10.50/share and will start trading today. Prior to the trading debut, in this short note, we summarize the latest information with updates on our valuation. 

Our Previous Insight on AsiaInfo Tech:

• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Cost Control Is the Key (Part 1)
• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Lessons from Privatization and Three Bearish Trends (Part 2)
• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Latest Numbers Showcase the Company’s Questionable Expansion Plan
• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Valuation Rich Vs Delisting and Peers

2. Harbin Electric Expected To Be Privatised

Power generation equipment manufacturer Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to Hong Kong’s Codes on Takeovers and Mergers and Share Buy-backs, suggesting a privatisation offer from parent Harbin Electric Corporation (“HEC”) is pending.

HE is PRC incorporated, therefore a privatisation by way of a merger by absorption may be proposed, similar to Advanced Semiconductor Mfg Corp Ltd. (3355 HK) as discussed in ASMC’s Merger By Absorption. 

HE has perennially traded at discount to net cash. As at its last traded price, the discount to net cash (using the 2018 interim figure of HK$12.4bn or HK$7.27/share) was 65%.

HE issued 329mn domestic shares (~47.16% of the existing issued domestic shares and ~24.02% of the existing total issued shares) to its parent in January this year, at HK$4.56/share or a 60.9% discount to the June 2017 book value.  A similar discount to the June 2018 book value backs out HK$4.15/share, or ~67% upside from the undisturbed price, in line with the premium to ASMC’s Offer. 

A privatisation would require a scheme-like vote for the H-shares. HEC holds no H shares. There are 675mn H shares and no single shareholder controls a 10% (or more) blocking stake.

Dissension rights are available according to HE’s articles of association, although what constitutes a “fair price” under those rights, and the timing of the settlement under such rights, are not evident. 

There are likely to be the customary PRC regulatory approvals required, however as HEC is already the controlling shareholder and an SOE, these conditions are not in doubt.

Should an offer emerge, expect completion in ~6 months from the initial announcement.

3. Luzhou City Commercial Bank IPO (泸州市商业银行) Trading Update – Low Liquidity, as Expected

Luzhou Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983 HK) IPO raised about US$222m at HKD3.18 per share, close to the bottom end of its price range. We have covered the IPO in our previous insight, Luzhou City Commercial Bank IPO (泸州市商业银行) – Earnings Lagging Asset Growth Owing to Tightening Spread.

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

4. How the Bear Market Could End

Last week’s report generated much discussion (see The S&P 500 Is In A Bear Market). Some of the questions related to the duration and downside target in a bear market. How far can stocks fall? How long will it last? What might be the trigger for a buy signal?

To reiterate our thesis from last week. Poor technical action and a recession forecast for late 2019 or early 2020 prompted the equity sell signal. The recession forecast stems from the combination of near-recession conditions based on conventional U.S. macro indicators, evidence of global weakness in both Europe and China, and the near certainty of a trade war which would further tank global growth.

What might turn this bear thesis around, or put a halt to the bear market? Here are a few possible fundamental triggers:

• An end to the trade war
• More stimulus underpinned by the ascendancy of MMT in fiscal policy circles

At this point, the jury is out as to whether these positive catalysts can actually happen, so we remain “data dependent”.

5. Discover HK Connect: Mainlanders Are Buying Shandong Gold, and Pharmaceuticals (2018-12-17)

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainlanders in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: those with a market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, those with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and those with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.

In this briefing:

1. The GER Weekly EVENTS Wrap: Anta/Amer, Trade Me, Hengan and API/Sigma
2. Last Week’s GER IPO Research: Tencent Music, IPO Trading Strategy Deep Dive, WuXi, Junshi & Xinyi
3. Huawei/Trade Truce Progress/ Made in China 2025 /China Cyber Threat/Stimulus

1. The GER Weekly EVENTS Wrap: Anta/Amer, Trade Me, Hengan and API/Sigma

Below is a recap of the key event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week Arun develops a differentiated view on the deal between Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) and Amer Sports Oyj (AMEAS FH) which he thinks is worse for the former and better for the latter. In addition, we check the bump possibilities for Trade Me (TME AU) which we think is limited by valuation. Further, we find some validity in the short-seller case on Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK) and believe a bump is needed for Australian Pharma Industries (API AU) to close the deal on Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)

The rest of our event-driven research can be found below

Best of luck for the new week – Arun, Venkat and Rickin

2. Last Week’s GER IPO Research: Tencent Music, IPO Trading Strategy Deep Dive, WuXi, Junshi & Xinyi

Another busy week for IPO research from the GER team. This week, we recap the Tencent Music Entertainment (TME US) IPO which we noted is more fairly valued post its day one rally. Secondly, we dig into Chinese domiciled IPOs that are listed in the States and find some interesting trends on maximizing the ‘pop’, knowing when to get out and an assessment of longer-term performance. Arun nails his DCF valuation on WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) which closed at his base-case valuation while he recommends getting involved at the low-end for Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1387344D CH) . Finally, Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (1671746D HK) spares further wrath as it postpones its IPO – Venkat digs into the reasons why he is cautious on the company. 

Quote of the week: 

Please note the post-apocalyptical fiction section has been moved to current affairs

– Sign in front of a UK bookstore

Video of the week: Santas hit the slopes in Maine

This is our last wrap of 2018 – we wish you a safe and happy festive period – and we will back in 2019!

Best wishes – Rickin, Venkat and Arun

3. Huawei/Trade Truce Progress/ Made in China 2025 /China Cyber Threat/Stimulus

China News That Matters

• Canada caught in the crossfire
• Soybean sales and other good news
• Downgrading the master plan. Or not
• China: the greatest threat to US privacy?
• Real estate firms seek bond green light

In this briefing:

1. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Container Rates Up
2. Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” – Week Ending December 22, 2018
3. Singapore REIT – Preferred Picks 2019
4. Micron’s Guidance Bombshell Signals Troubled Times Ahead For Beleaguered Semiconductor Segment
5. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express & Logistics: Parcel Pricing Weak, Again

1. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Container Rates Up

Tracking Traffic/Containers & Air Cargo is the hub for all of our research on container shipping and air cargo, featuring analysis of monthly industry data, notes from our conversations with industry participants, and links to recent company and thematic pieces. 

Tracking Traffic/Containers & Air Cargo aims to highlight changes to existing trends, relationships, and views affecting the leading Asian companies in these two sectors. This month’s note includes data from about twenty different sources.

In this issue readers will find:

2. Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” – Week Ending December 22, 2018

Highlights of significant recent happenings include:

3. Singapore REIT – Preferred Picks 2019

With the FTSE ST REIT index’s decline of 9.3% year-to-date, value has emerged for some of the bellwether names in the Singapore REITs sector. The forward yield spread between these REITs and the Singapore government 10-year bond yield (2.13%) currently stand at least 390 basis points. In view of the increasing concerns over global economic growth, rising interest rates and the ongoing trade tension between the US and China, I present three quality REITs with fortified portfolios that are well-positioned to weather the near-term market uncertainties. They possess growth potential from acquisitions, positive rental reversions and deliver resilient forward distribution yield of more than 6%. Some of the bellwether names in the more resilient retail REIT sector, while offering lower yield of around 5.0% – 5.7%, are also in my buy list. 

4. Micron’s Guidance Bombshell Signals Troubled Times Ahead For Beleaguered Semiconductor Segment

After months of skirting around inventory build-up and a weakening demand outlook, Micron used their latest earnings report to call closing time on a revenue and profitability party that began in Q4 2016 and just got better and better with each passing quarter. 

Micron reported Q1 FY2019 results on December 18’th and while revenues were largely in line with recently lowered guidance from the company, their outlook for both Q2 and 2019 as a whole was worse than even the most bearish of expectations. 

Citing high inventory levels at key customers, Micron guided Q2 FY2019 revenues for $6 billion at the midpoint, down a staggering $1.9 billion, 24% QoQ and 18% YoY. At the same time, Micron revised down their CY2019 bit demand growth forecast for both DRAM (from 20% to 16%) and NAND (35%, the bottom of the previously forecasted range). The company plans to adjust both CapEx and bit supply output downwards to match.

In the wake of their guidance bombshell, Micron’s share price closed down almost 8% the following day to end the session at $31.41, a level last seen in August 2017. Micron is unique in reporting out of sync with its industry peers, making it the proverbial canary in a coal mine. The company’s gloomy outlook and clarion call for further CapEx reductions in a bid to rebalance supply and demand spells troubled times ahead for an already beleaguered semiconductor segment ahead of the upcoming earnings season. 

5. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express & Logistics: Parcel Pricing Weak, Again

Tracking Traffic/Chinese Express & Logistics is the hub for our research on China’s express parcels and logistics sectors. Tracking Traffic/Chinese Express & Logistics features analysis of monthly Chinese express and logistics data, notes from our conversations with industry players, and links to company and thematic notes. 

This month’s issue covers the following topics:

In this briefing:

1. Reforms/US-Canada-China/ Economic Gloom/Bike Crash/Stocks
2. China’s Sluggish Inbound Tourism Industry
3. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
4. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019
5. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

1. Reforms/US-Canada-China/ Economic Gloom/Bike Crash/Stocks

China News That Matters

• No one dictates to China but me
• US targets Chinese hackers as rift widens
• Weak data raise pressure for stimulus
• After high-speed climb, bike-share giant collapses
• A brighter new year for China’s stock market?

2. China’s Sluggish Inbound Tourism Industry

How can we explain the fact that in the five years from 2012 the number of tourist visits to China fell from 11.6 to 10.5 million per year? True, business and family reunion visits have risen, but such a culturally rich country should have more tourists.

3. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM’s price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

4. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019

In a follow up to my note from last year Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018 I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2018, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending.

Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance in a brutal year for Asian Stock Markets:

4 out of 5 had a positive performance.

Below I will make a new attempt to provide five high conviction ideas going into 2019.

5. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

• US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.
• Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.
• Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.
• Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.

In this briefing:

1. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships
2. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
3. Is China Losing the Soft Power Battle?
4. Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
5. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War

1. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships

• We’ve reviewed 10 companies in the sector. Of those, three are the consensus favorites of our Tokyo based panel of industry, financial and economics observers of the IR initiative over many years.
• Based on pachinko alone, the stocks of these companies are fully valued. Based on potential tailwind from a license award within 6 months, they could be vastly undervalued.
• Each of the three noted here brings strength to a bid less based on financials than corporate focus, outlook and experience in the field.

2. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

3. Is China Losing the Soft Power Battle?

Recent figures show China slipping down the Soft Power Index while Chinese language learning in the USA is also in decline. Have tighter controls over education policy and restrictions on academic freedom in China spooked the crowd?

4. Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)

Hansoh Pharma, a leading generic pharmaceutical manufacturer, filed an application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this insight, we will cover the following topics:

• Hansoh Pharma’s core products and major pipeline drug candidates.
• The industry backdrop.
• The company’s shareholders and investors.

• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

5. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War

• Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
• But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
• After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 

In this briefing:

1. Chinese Telecoms: Recent Meetings Suggest a Benign Capex Outlook, but There Are Risks over 5G.
2. SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount
3. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
4. Tencent Music (TME): Both Live Video and Music Fairly Valued, No Action
5. AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: What You Need to Know Before the Trading Debut

1. Chinese Telecoms: Recent Meetings Suggest a Benign Capex Outlook, but There Are Risks over 5G.

At recent meetings with the Chinese operators and China Tower (788 HK), Alastair Jones came away convinced the operators were not looking at a massive 5G capex burst in 2019. However, Alastair also worries that in the end, the decision is not made by the operators but with an eye to larger policy issues. With Huawei/ZTE under pressure and the China/US trade was simmering the risks to capex have increased. That said, we do not expect large scale 5G capex in 1H19 and with capacity utilization of the networks low their may even be room for further capex declines.  We look for more details of 5G plans to be released in 1Q19.

2. SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount

Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular expectation was that the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO should be a catalyst to narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). On its trading debut today, SoftBank Corp’s shares fell 14.5% from its IPO price of JPY1,500 to JPY1,282 per share – the worst first-day decline ever for a major IPO in Japan since the Japan Display (6740 JP) IPO in 2014. 

3. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly

SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chain for the electronics industry, published three different forecasts for wafer fab equipment (WFE) sales in the past week. While the forecasts differ in approach and detail, they all agree on one thing, WFE revenues are continuing to fall and the outlook for 2019 is sharply down on previous estimates.

Specifically, Q4 2018 WFE revenues are set to decline 20.8% or $3.3 billion QoQ and the forecast which had just six months ago predicted 7% growth in 2019 is now calling for an 8% decline next year. 

These latest forecasts cast a dark shadow over the predictions of the leading WFE manufacturers that H1 2019 would be stronger than H2 2018 and we anticipate a strong downward revision of forward guidance in the upcoming earnings season. 

There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon however as SEMI forecasts a strong rebound in the second half of 2019 leading to a return to growth of ~20% in 2020. Let’s see.  

4. Tencent Music (TME): Both Live Video and Music Fairly Valued, No Action

• We believe that TME is fairly valued based on peer companies’ price / sales ratios.
• The Chinese internet peer companies as comparison bases in valuation have declined significantly more than indices, we believe it is not a concern that indices declined further.
• We believe that the main business of music will grow strongly in 2019 and 2020 due to the rapid growth of both the paying user base and ARPU (Average Revenues per User per month).

5. AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: What You Need to Know Before the Trading Debut

AsiaInfo Tech priced its IPO at HKD 10.50/share and will start trading today. Prior to the trading debut, in this short note, we summarize the latest information with updates on our valuation. 

Our Previous Insight on AsiaInfo Tech:

• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Cost Control Is the Key (Part 1)
• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Lessons from Privatization and Three Bearish Trends (Part 2)
• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Latest Numbers Showcase the Company’s Questionable Expansion Plan
• AsiaInfo Tech (亚信科技) IPO: Valuation Rich Vs Delisting and Peers