China Archives | Page 129 of 154 | Smartkarma

In this briefing:

1. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
2. UK Trip – Wake up to Deflation Risk
3. Today’s NBS Data On China House Prices Across 70 Cities – Lower Priced Cities Keep Catching Up
4. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite
5. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

1. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
• Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
• Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
• PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
• MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
• HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

2. UK Trip – Wake up to Deflation Risk

By Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist

• London-based investors are turning cautiously optimistic on China’s growth outlook amid the latest easing measures in January
• There is still little awareness about the rising deflation risk
• Interest in the trade war has subsided

3. Today’s NBS Data On China House Prices Across 70 Cities – Lower Priced Cities Keep Catching Up

Today’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on new home prices for 70 major cities in January shows on average a marginally accelerating year-on-year price growth and a slower month-on-month increase.  This continues to contrast with the year-on-year deceleration in SouFun-CREIS 100 Cities price index.

4. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.

5. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

• China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
• Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
• Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
• Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
• Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
• Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
• Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
• Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government’s resolve
• Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries

In this briefing:

1. UK Trip – Wake up to Deflation Risk
2. Today’s NBS Data On China House Prices Across 70 Cities – Lower Priced Cities Keep Catching Up
3. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite
4. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)
5. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money

1. UK Trip – Wake up to Deflation Risk

By Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist

• London-based investors are turning cautiously optimistic on China’s growth outlook amid the latest easing measures in January
• There is still little awareness about the rising deflation risk
• Interest in the trade war has subsided

2. Today’s NBS Data On China House Prices Across 70 Cities – Lower Priced Cities Keep Catching Up

Today’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on new home prices for 70 major cities in January shows on average a marginally accelerating year-on-year price growth and a slower month-on-month increase.  This continues to contrast with the year-on-year deceleration in SouFun-CREIS 100 Cities price index.

3. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.

4. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

• China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
• Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
• Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
• Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
• Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
• Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
• Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
• Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government’s resolve
• Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries

5. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money

There is this thing called the internet that can be pretty cool sometimes. In all seriousness though, the internet is a driving force for making money and spending money. Last week we took a long look at mobile phones and continuing a deep dive on technology today we take look at the internet in China. This will not be a total encyclopedia but a snap shot of some key features.

In this briefing:

1. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry
2. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation
3. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
4. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
5. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

1. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry

Chinese healthcare is fascinating in that one minute you can visit a doctor practicing the latest modern medicine and then stop at the corner store for traditional Chinese medicines specializing in random herbs and fungi. The dichotomy is a truly Chinese experience. However, China is increasingly a manufacturing and therefore export destination for both modern and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM).

2. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation

By Charles Dumas, Chief Economist

• Monetary stimulus fails export-dependent savings glut countries
• Japan now accepts huge budget deficits and negative interest rates
• EA needs broad structural reform to avoid Japan’s deep malaise

3. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

4. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

5. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) prices, and it appears to have legs.  As such, we are closing our Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) short.

In this briefing:

1. Today’s NBS Data On China House Prices Across 70 Cities – Lower Priced Cities Keep Catching Up
2. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite
3. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)
4. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money
5. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry

1. Today’s NBS Data On China House Prices Across 70 Cities – Lower Priced Cities Keep Catching Up

Today’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on new home prices for 70 major cities in January shows on average a marginally accelerating year-on-year price growth and a slower month-on-month increase.  This continues to contrast with the year-on-year deceleration in SouFun-CREIS 100 Cities price index.

2. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.

3. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

• China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
• Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
• Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
• Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
• Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
• Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
• Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
• Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government’s resolve
• Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries

4. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money

There is this thing called the internet that can be pretty cool sometimes. In all seriousness though, the internet is a driving force for making money and spending money. Last week we took a long look at mobile phones and continuing a deep dive on technology today we take look at the internet in China. This will not be a total encyclopedia but a snap shot of some key features.

5. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry

Chinese healthcare is fascinating in that one minute you can visit a doctor practicing the latest modern medicine and then stop at the corner store for traditional Chinese medicines specializing in random herbs and fungi. The dichotomy is a truly Chinese experience. However, China is increasingly a manufacturing and therefore export destination for both modern and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM).

In this briefing:

1. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite
2. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)
3. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money
4. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry
5. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation

1. US Dollar Demand – Fading Appetite

In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.

2. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

• China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
• Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
• Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
• Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
• Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
• Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
• Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
• Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government’s resolve
• Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries

3. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money

There is this thing called the internet that can be pretty cool sometimes. In all seriousness though, the internet is a driving force for making money and spending money. Last week we took a long look at mobile phones and continuing a deep dive on technology today we take look at the internet in China. This will not be a total encyclopedia but a snap shot of some key features.

4. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry

Chinese healthcare is fascinating in that one minute you can visit a doctor practicing the latest modern medicine and then stop at the corner store for traditional Chinese medicines specializing in random herbs and fungi. The dichotomy is a truly Chinese experience. However, China is increasingly a manufacturing and therefore export destination for both modern and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM).

5. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation

By Charles Dumas, Chief Economist

• Monetary stimulus fails export-dependent savings glut countries
• Japan now accepts huge budget deficits and negative interest rates
• EA needs broad structural reform to avoid Japan’s deep malaise

In this briefing:

1. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)
2. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money
3. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry
4. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation
5. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

1. Confluence of Politics – China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

• China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
• Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
• Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
• Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
• Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
• Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
• Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
• Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government’s resolve
• Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries

2. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money

There is this thing called the internet that can be pretty cool sometimes. In all seriousness though, the internet is a driving force for making money and spending money. Last week we took a long look at mobile phones and continuing a deep dive on technology today we take look at the internet in China. This will not be a total encyclopedia but a snap shot of some key features.

3. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry

Chinese healthcare is fascinating in that one minute you can visit a doctor practicing the latest modern medicine and then stop at the corner store for traditional Chinese medicines specializing in random herbs and fungi. The dichotomy is a truly Chinese experience. However, China is increasingly a manufacturing and therefore export destination for both modern and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM).

4. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation

By Charles Dumas, Chief Economist

• Monetary stimulus fails export-dependent savings glut countries
• Japan now accepts huge budget deficits and negative interest rates
• EA needs broad structural reform to avoid Japan’s deep malaise

5. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

In this briefing:

1. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money
2. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry
3. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation
4. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
5. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

1. The Internet: Hacks, Clicks, and Money

There is this thing called the internet that can be pretty cool sometimes. In all seriousness though, the internet is a driving force for making money and spending money. Last week we took a long look at mobile phones and continuing a deep dive on technology today we take look at the internet in China. This will not be a total encyclopedia but a snap shot of some key features.

2. China’s Pharmaceutical and TCM Industry

Chinese healthcare is fascinating in that one minute you can visit a doctor practicing the latest modern medicine and then stop at the corner store for traditional Chinese medicines specializing in random herbs and fungi. The dichotomy is a truly Chinese experience. However, China is increasingly a manufacturing and therefore export destination for both modern and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM).

3. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation

By Charles Dumas, Chief Economist

• Monetary stimulus fails export-dependent savings glut countries
• Japan now accepts huge budget deficits and negative interest rates
• EA needs broad structural reform to avoid Japan’s deep malaise

4. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

5. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

In this briefing:

1. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation
2. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
3. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
4. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short
5. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping

1. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation

By Charles Dumas, Chief Economist

• Monetary stimulus fails export-dependent savings glut countries
• Japan now accepts huge budget deficits and negative interest rates
• EA needs broad structural reform to avoid Japan’s deep malaise

2. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

3. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

4. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) prices, and it appears to have legs.  As such, we are closing our Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) short.

5. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping

• Our analysis of how Spotify Technology Sa (SPOT US) turned profitable in 4Q18 reveals three key ingredients: critical mass in sales, GM progression, and core business diversification.
• With sales reaching critical mass, this would allow fixed costs to be spread out in such a way that opex/unit is lower than GP/unit.
• Progression in GM and core business diversification strategy are worth monitoring.
• Implication: Meituan Dianping’s (3690 HK) core business is ahead of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) in terms of profitability inflection point timeline.

In this briefing:

1. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
2. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
3. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short
4. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping
5. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

1. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

2. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

3. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) prices, and it appears to have legs.  As such, we are closing our Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) short.

4. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping

• Our analysis of how Spotify Technology Sa (SPOT US) turned profitable in 4Q18 reveals three key ingredients: critical mass in sales, GM progression, and core business diversification.
• With sales reaching critical mass, this would allow fixed costs to be spread out in such a way that opex/unit is lower than GP/unit.
• Progression in GM and core business diversification strategy are worth monitoring.
• Implication: Meituan Dianping’s (3690 HK) core business is ahead of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) in terms of profitability inflection point timeline.

5. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

In this briefing:

1. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
2. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short
3. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping
4. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
5. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

1. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

2. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) prices, and it appears to have legs.  As such, we are closing our Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) short.

3. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping

• Our analysis of how Spotify Technology Sa (SPOT US) turned profitable in 4Q18 reveals three key ingredients: critical mass in sales, GM progression, and core business diversification.
• With sales reaching critical mass, this would allow fixed costs to be spread out in such a way that opex/unit is lower than GP/unit.
• Progression in GM and core business diversification strategy are worth monitoring.
• Implication: Meituan Dianping’s (3690 HK) core business is ahead of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) in terms of profitability inflection point timeline.

4. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

5. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.