Earnings Alerts

Alaska Air Group (ALK) Earnings: Q2 EPS Forecast Falls Short, Operating Revenue Surges 41%

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  • Alaska Air’s adjusted EPS for the second quarter is forecasted between $1.15 to $1.65, which falls short of the estimated $2.41.
  • Capacity is expected to grow by 2% to 3%.
  • First quarter results showed an adjusted loss per share of 77 cents, better than the previous year’s 92 cents loss, but slightly less than the estimated 75 cents loss.
  • Operating revenue reached $3.14 billion, marking a 41% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the estimate of $3.16 billion.
  • Passenger revenue climbed to $2.81 billion, a 40% rise year-over-year, nearly matching the estimate of $2.82 billion.
  • Total revenue passenger miles were 17.26 billion, up 38% year-over-year but slightly below the forecast of 17.32 billion.
  • Available seat miles increased to 21.22 billion, a 38% year-over-year surge, exceeding the estimate of 21.06 billion.
  • The load factor was recorded at 81.3%, a slight decrease from the estimated 82% and last year’s 81.4%.
  • Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM) was 14.79 cents.
  • The consolidated yield increased by 1.7% year-over-year, reaching 16.28 cents.
  • Cost per ASM, excluding fuel and special items, rose 2.5% year-over-year to 11.89 cents.
  • The company aims to generate $1 billion in additional profit by 2027.
  • Premium revenues continue to be robust.
  • Second-quarter RASM is predicted to be flat or decline slightly.
  • Second-quarter CASMex (Cost per Available Seat Mile excluding external influences) is anticipated to increase by mid to high single digits percentage-wise.
  • No updates are being made to the full-year 2025 guidance; a revision will be released later.
  • Alaska Air expects to be profitable in 2025, even if revenue pressures persist in the year’s second half.

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Alaska Air Group on Smartkarma



Analyst coverage of Alaska Air Group on Smartkarma is painting a positive picture, with insights from Baptista Research highlighting key drivers of growth. In one report titled “Alaska Air Group: International Expansion & Fleet Modernization As A Critical Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers,” the analysis focuses on the company’s financial performance post-acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines. Alaska Air Group closed 2024 with a GAAP net income of $71 million for the fourth quarter and $395 million for the full year, with adjusted numbers rising to $125 million and $625 million, respectively.

Another report from Baptista Research, titled “Alaska Air Group: Leveraging Oneworld Alliance Partnerships To Up Their Game! – Major Drivers,” sheds light on the company’s strategic outlook. Alaska Air Group reported a GAAP net income of $220 million and adjusted net income of $327 million for the second quarter. With a record $2.9 billion in quarterly revenue, driven by premium segments, Alaska Air Group is showing resilience and growth prospects in the aviation sector.



A look at Alaska Air Group Smart Scores

FactorScoreMagnitude
Value4
Dividend1
Growth3
Resilience3
Momentum3
OVERALL SMART SCORE2.8

Smart Score is a compound score for the Company indicating its overall outlook. It is derived by taking an equally weighted average of underlying Factor scores computed by Smartkarma

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is an airline holding company that provides air services to passengers across various destinations. The company also offers freight and mail services, focusing mainly on Alaska and the West Coast. Smartkarma Smart Scores for Alaska Air Group reveal a positive long-term outlook. With strong value scoring 4, it suggests that the company is seen as undervalued compared to its peers. However, its dividend score of 1 indicates a lower ranking in terms of dividend payout. Moderate scores in growth, resilience, and momentum (3 for each) point towards a company with potential growth opportunities and stable performance.

In summary, Alaska Air Group is positioned to benefit from its undervaluation compared to competitors. While its dividend score is low, suggesting limited returns in this aspect, the company shows promise in growth, resilience, and momentum. Investors may view Alaska Air Group as a company with room for growth and a stable operational performance in the long run.


Disclaimer: This article by Smartkarma is general in nature and based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that our articles may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation, Smartkarma makes no assurance about the accuracy of any generated data or content. All content is indicative only and should be independently checked for accuracy and confirmed before use. Smartkarma accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage caused as a result of any inaccuracy or error within the Lab online tools or generated data.
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