Daily Value Investing: South Korea’s Plummeting Population Growth – Long Term Structural Impact on Korean Banks and more

In this briefing:

1. South Korea’s Plummeting Population Growth – Long Term Structural Impact on Korean Banks
2. AAC Tech (2018): Damage Is Done While Business Remain Intact – BUY
3. Chinese Telcos: 5G Launches in 2019. Buy the 5G Beneficiary (China Tower).
4. Global Banks: Some New Year Pointers
5. Jamuna Bank: Clearing Electoral Uncertainties

1. South Korea’s Plummeting Population Growth – Long Term Structural Impact on Korean Banks

It was reported that South Korea’s population increased only 0.09% YoY at the end of 2018. The population growth has been declining in the past three decades in Korea. The population growth rate of 0.09% YoY in 2018 is even lower than the growth rate of 0.16% YoY in 2017. (Source: Korean Ministry of the Interior and Safety) The previous general estimates by various government agencies/research institutes of when the population in South Korea would decline were around 2028-2032. 

With the new available data, it is likely that these estimates will be revised drastically. In fact, it is possible that South Korea’s population could start declining around 2020-2022, contrary to previous estimates that suggested that South Korea’s population to start declining around 2028-2032.

The two leading Korean banks including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS) and Kb Financial Group (105560 KS) have been in a decade plus bear market. While these stocks may move up or down 10-15% within a short period of time, we think they are a structural, long-term short. Bank of Korea has been hesitant on raising the base interest rate. There are simply an overwhelming pressure to not to crash the real estate market. Because of this enormous pressure, the Korean banks have been losing out on the higher interest rate spreads they could have earned if the interest rates were raised much higher.  

2. AAC Tech (2018): Damage Is Done While Business Remain Intact – BUY

The recent trade talk meeting between the US and Chinese government went into an extended unplanned third day which could be seen as a positive development – a sign that both sides are serious on getting a deal done. President Trump’s  recent tweet citing “”Talks with China are going very well!” has been responded positively in Asian equities market. Is it all just that or are there more in the company?

3. Chinese Telcos: 5G Launches in 2019. Buy the 5G Beneficiary (China Tower).

We highlighted in a recent note Chris Hoare‘s positive outlook for China Tower (788 HK). Our view takes into account the 5G build-out commencing this year, improved capex efficiency from using “social resources”, the rapid growth in non-tower businesses that lie outside the Master Services Agreement (MSA), and the valuation benefit from what looks like surprisingly investor friendly management. 

This note focuses on four key issues facing the Chinese telcos in 2019:

• 5G capex (March) (this is by far the most important),
• Regulatory newsflow (February/ March),
• Operating trend improvements (August), and
• Emerging business opportunities driving future growth (August).

We remain positive on the telcos which trade at low multiples. China Unicom (762 HK) continues to trade at a discount, yet is most exposed to the positive story emerging at China Tower. We switch our top pick among the telcos from China Mobile (941 HK) back to China Unicom as a result. Alastair Jones thinks China Telecom’s (728 HK) premium multiple is at risk if management execution on the cost base doesn’t improve. It is our least preferred telco at this stage. Overall, we expect China Tower to outperform all telcos and it is our top pick.  The upgrade to China Tower flows through the telcos (valuation and costs) and our new target prices are as follows: China Unicom to HK$14.4, China Telecom to HK$5.4 and China Mobile to HK$96. 

4. Global Banks: Some New Year Pointers

Here is a look at how regions fare regarding key indicators.

• PH Score = value-quality (10 variables)
• FV=Franchise Valuation
• RSI
• TRR= Dividend-adjusted PEG factor
• ROE
• EY=Earnings Yield

We have created a model that incorporates these components into a system that covers>1500 banks.

5. Jamuna Bank: Clearing Electoral Uncertainties

The Jamuna Bank Ltd (JAMUNABA BD) narrative is underpinned by a quintile 1 global PH Score™ and a low franchise valuation as well as a high Earnings Yield by global standards.

Established by a group of local entrepreneurs in 2001, experienced in  trade, commerce, and industry, Jamuna Bank Ltd is the only Bengali named 3rd generation private commercial bank. JBL. has exhibited vibrant growth over 18 years. The Credit Rating Agency of Bangladesh  classifies JBL as AA2 [very strong capacity and very high quality] for Long Term and ST-2 for Short Term.

JBL offers both conventional and Islamic banking. The Bank provides diverse services, encompassing trade, commerce, and manufacturing. The traditional focus has been on the corporate sector (especially textiles and manufacturing services) though SME lending and retail are fast-expanding. JBL is engaged with entrepreneurs in setting up enterprise ventures and BMRE of existing industrial units. Operations are centred on Dhaka and Chittagong though Rajshahi is an important market too.

All 122 branches are running with real-time online capacity while  the bank has 243 ATMs, sharing with other partner banks and consortium throughout Bangladesh. In addition, JBL is a Primary Dealer of government. securities.

While the economy is in a relatively stable state, the Banking Sector presents a highly mixed picture. Funding and liquidity are adequate in the Banking System in general. At the main listed entities, ROA and ROE stand at around 1% and 12%. Capitalisation targets are moving in the right direction though there is a shortfall at a number of lenders. The sector is weighed down by SOCB asset quality and poor governance which needs to be addressed as it exerts a distortionary impact across the system. SOCB NPL Ratio stands at around 30% and is probably worse than this versus around 10% for the system in general. The system stressed Loan/Investment Ratio is probably double this level. Worryingly, private sector bank defaults are rising at a fast clip as LDRs climb at the same time.