Brief Value Investing: Procurri: Exit DeClout, Enter Novo Tellus. Company Remains Highly Undervalued at 4.4x 2018 EV/EBITDA and more

In this briefing:

1. Procurri: Exit DeClout, Enter Novo Tellus. Company Remains Highly Undervalued at 4.4x 2018 EV/EBITDA
2. MODEC: Add
3. Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow – Part 2 –  Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)
4. Ho Bee Land – 4Q Earnings Hit by Unexpected Tax Provision

1. Procurri: Exit DeClout, Enter Novo Tellus. Company Remains Highly Undervalued at 4.4x 2018 EV/EBITDA

Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) released FY18 results which showed the company growing revenues to 220M SGD (+21% vs FY17), EBITDA to 19.7M SGD (+185% vs FY17), PBT to 10.1M SGD (vs 2.3M loss in 2017) and a small net profit of 5.3M SGD which was artificially low because of an astronomical 47% tax rate. The high tax rate should reverse in 2H19 which would show the reported profitability of Procurri improve substantially. 

Procurri remains deep value trading at just 4.4x 2018 EV/EBITDA and 0.4x 2018 EV/Sales. If we adjust the FY18 net profit figure(assume 30% tax rate vs 47%) the shares trade at a P/E multiple of just 13x.

The shareholder register of Procurri has seen a dramatic change YTD with multiple announcements on SGX. The most significant development is the entry of Singapore PE fund Novo Tellus acquiring a 29.6% stake on 19/2/19. Consequently this means that the biggest corporate overhang on Procurri (read: the control by Declout Ltd (DLL SP) ) is now almost over with their stake reduced to 17% from 47% previously.

Given the well-publicized track record of Novo Tellus at SGX listed Aem Holdings (AEM SP) the question is if Novo Tellus sees another multi-bagger in the making?

While a “10-bagger” type return like AEM is unlikely at Procurri, doubling the market cap from 90M to 180M SGD would not be impossible as Procurri continues to grow in FY19 and the depressed multiple expands modestly.

2. MODEC: Add

Towards the end of 2018 Modec Inc (6269 JP)‘s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge, the stock price has rebounded 53.9% as the company posted excellent results at 4Q and guidance, while conservative, was for continued healthy earnings.

Having visited the company today, we believe earnings should continue to be strong and actually strengthen over the next few years with MODEC likely to start running into capacity constraints over the course of this year.

3. Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow – Part 2 –  Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)

In this series under Smartkarma Originals, CrossASEAN Research insight providers Angus Mackintosh and Jessica Irene seek to determine whether or not we are close to the end of the rainbow and to a period of outperformance for the property sector. Our end conclusions will be based on a series of company visits to the major listed property companies in Indonesia, conversations with local banks, property agents, and other relevant channel checks. 

The second company we explore is leading township developer Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ), with exposure ranging from landed housing, shophouses, condominiums, as well as the defensive and growing buffer of nearly 20% of revenues coming from recurrent rental income.

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) has one of the largest land banks of any developer, with a land bank of over 4,000 ha, more than half of which is in its flagship township of BSD City in Serpong.

Given its breadth of exposure to the property segment, the company has the flexibility to switch its exposure between different segments depending on the health of the overall market. 

Its projects are well connected by toll-roads and railway but it is well positioned to benefit from new infrastructure such as the new MRT, LRT, as well as new toll road extensions, which will enhance the attractiveness of its developments.  

Management suggests that they will take a cautious start to the year ahead of the election but see a window for a pick-up in marketing sales in May, with the potential for a much better 2H19. 

Despite a run-up in the share price since the start of the year, valuations do not look challenging from a historical basis especially looking at its PBV. It also trades at a significant discount to NAV of 67%, as well as being below its 5 yr historical mean on a forward PER basis.

Catalysts ahead include a post-election pick-up in activity leading to more project launches, completion of infrastructure projects, aggressive mortgage lending by the banks, and a more dovish interest rate outlook. Valuations are already attractive but a rise in property market activity should also lead to earnings upgrades, which if sustained, may lead to property prices moving upwards.

4. Ho Bee Land – 4Q Earnings Hit by Unexpected Tax Provision

Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) (“HBL”) reported it 4Q 2018 financial results this evening.

PATMI for 4Q18 dropped 20.5% YoY to S$81.4 mil. Excluding the impact of the tax provision for Hotel Windsor, underlying PATMI would have remained stable at approximately S$101.7 mil.

HBL’s real estate business had performed within expectations. There were also improvements in the financial position of HBL, such as the increase in cash balance, lower net gearing ratio, refinancing of bridging loan and extension of debt maturity.

Fair value of HBL is pegged at S$3.32 per share, translating to an upside of 32%. REIT listing remains a potential catalyst. I maintain my BUY rating on HBL.