Brief Value Investing: Bharti Airtel Buy on Short Lived Breach Below Support and more

In this briefing:

1. Bharti Airtel Buy on Short Lived Breach Below Support
2. BIMB: Market Gives Thumbs-Up to Results
3. WABCO Confirms Being a Takeover Target of The Private German Auto Parts Maker, ZF
4. Banco Do Brasil (BBAS3) – Capital Contributions from Potential Non-Core Disposals
5. Sunpower: Excellent FY18 Results; Strong Outlook for FY19. Fair Value Remains 1 SGD (70% Upside)

1. Bharti Airtel Buy on Short Lived Breach Below Support

Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) corrective cycle does not appear complete with risk of a final spike lower  below key pivot support. It is this crack lower that we want to take advantage of.

Sell volume spike implies the flat range will break lower. 

Daily cycle triangulation sides with a press below pivot support. An upside break of this triangle would trigger a tactical long but would lack needed gas for a sustainable drive.

Weekly MACD is seeking a bottoming/basing cycle that will turn the cycle higher once we see a final capitulation spike below pivot support as we did back in 2008, 2010 and 2012.

2. BIMB: Market Gives Thumbs-Up to Results

Malaysia has a tailwind of a new administration, vowing to overturn many aspects of its predecessor – including cancelling mega infra projects and reducing the “real” National debt.

The economy is relatively buoyant and is slated to generate an average of 4.75% GDP growth over 2018-2022. Private consumption will remain the main driver of growth, still the domestic economy continues to face downside risks stemming from any further escalation in trade tensions and commodity related shocks. Inflation has mellowed, supported by the cut in GST, but will still, once these effects diminish, be modest, at around 2%. Unemployment is low and there is a current account surplus.

Bimb Holdings (BIMB MK) or BHB commands two subsidiaries, Bank Islam and Takaful Malaysia. Bank Islam is a niche consumer-centred lender with a focus on mortgages: the largest component of the loan book and growing at a double-digit pace. Loans are therefore >5 years while funding tends to be <1 year. The insurance operation is BIMB’s most profitable revenue stream though. There is a concerted focus on the brand, on strategic bank partnerships, and on digitalisation. Both subsidiaries are rooted in Shariah-compliance. (Islamic Finance is a fast-growing market share in Malaysia). We do not rule out corporate reorganisation initiatives to unlock further value. The main shareholder is Lembaga Tabung Haji, a religious pilgrim fund board.

While BIMB is less sensitive to government actions on sovereign guarantees for infra projects, the bank is mainly exposed to consumer credit trends and cycle. Malaysia has a high level (by Asian standards) of household (excluding mortgages) indebtedness, dominated by credit cards, auto finance, and personal loans. Some areas of consumer banking reflect a stretched DSR, underpinning a moderately high risk by credit-to-GDP gap. The corporate sector is not excessively leveraged. BIMB though commands strong asset quality, provisioning, and capitalisation levels.

3. WABCO Confirms Being a Takeover Target of The Private German Auto Parts Maker, ZF

Last morning the listed brake supplier, Wabco Holdings (WBC US) confirmed that it is in takeover talks with one of the leading auto parts suppliers in Germany, ZF Friedrichshafen AG. Following the news of being possibly bought by a private company, WABCO’s stock surged almost 10% during the day, reaching USD130.5 by the day’s close.  This positive market reaction for WABCO was purely based on its confirmation about having preliminary takeover discussions with its rival company, ZF. There were no further details released on the possible deal price or about the plans that either company has after the takeover. Further, ZF in a news report stated that no decision has been taken yet and that it was the preliminary discussions that were being done. However, we do note the following:

• ZF is known to have made such strategic acquisitions in aiding the long-term development of the company. A similar strategic move was made by ZF back in 2015, when it took over TRW Automotive Holding to expand its exposure to sensors and electronic components.
• In June last year, ZF stated in a news report that it is not prioritising interest in brake suppliers, as its focus is to pursue investments in developing components to support next generation technologies and reported its plan to further invest more than EUR12bn into e-mobility and the autonomous driving field. This could indicate that WABCO takeover discussions may involve reasonable price discipline from ZF, and we would note that ZF had previously desired to acquire Wabco for about €6-8bn. However, we believe that the buyout does look attractive for both companies, especially for ZF, given the possible synergistic effects that could support ZF’s next gen technologies.
• In the last go around, ZF had just completed its acquisition of TRW and the balance sheet made a further large acquisition difficult. Now, much of the additional debt from the TRW has been digested and although levering up again could place considerable financial pressure on ZF in the short term, the company’s history makes up believe that it has the capability to handle any such pressure once synergies kick-in and restore its balance sheet in short order.

4. Banco Do Brasil (BBAS3) – Capital Contributions from Potential Non-Core Disposals

• Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) management is exploring non-core disposals, across its investment portfolio
• Its stakes in Banco Votorantim, utility holding Neoenergia and its Argentinian subsidiary Banco Patagonia Sa (BPAT AR) have been most readily mentioned, and are the most likely candidates, in our view
• The disposal timings, we expect, could be nearer term for domestic, Brazilian assets, with Banco Patagonia more likely to be a longer term project (2020?); still, we see such potential disposals as positive catalysts for Banco do Brasil shares
• We estimate that the CET1 accretion from disposals could total 73-80bps, of which the net gain from these potential disposals could add between 10-17 bps , with the risk weighted asset (RWA) reduction expected to free up an additional 63bps of CET1

5. Sunpower: Excellent FY18 Results; Strong Outlook for FY19. Fair Value Remains 1 SGD (70% Upside)

Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) has seen an incredible transformation over the past 24 months. Since the entry of two respected PE funds (DCP and CDH) the company has de-emphasized its historical M&S business and pushed full throttle on its GI (Green Investments) portfolio.

The efforts of this shift to GI are now bearing fruit with FY18 revenues increasing by 66% to 3.26 billion RMB, EBITDA rising by 113.5% to 496 million RMB (15.2% EBITDA margin) and underlying NPAT rising by 87% to 268 million RMB. Most importantly, the quality and visibility of its cash flows have improved.

It is rare to find companies that give you 3-year NPAT forecasts but Sunpower did this with the issuance of its second CB late 3Q18. Instead of using stale sell-side consensus forecasts we now focus on these public forecasts to guide investors what Sunpower’s fair value is depending on the PE multiple that investors apply.

My Fair Value estimate of 1 SGD remains unchanged (based on 15x FY21 EPS and company meeting its FY21 NPAT targets as communicated in CB2 prospectus).