In today’s briefing:
- Tobila Systems: The Monopoly that You Probably Never Heard Of (Even as Its Customer)
- GoTo IPO: A No Go
- KOSPI 200 IT (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview
- Gitlab 4Q22 Earnings: Impressive
- GoTo IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation
- BigCommerce: Stock Selloff Looks Finished As Valuation Hit $1.5 Billion
Tobila Systems: The Monopoly that You Probably Never Heard Of (Even as Its Customer)
- With less than 60 employees, Tobila Systems is the absolute dominator in the space that can make a significant impact on Japan’s society;
- The valuation starts to look attractive while the fundamentals remain sound;
- Partly benefiting from being the first entrant to this niche with a robust flywheel business model, the company now “monopolizes” both the supply side and the distribution side.
GoTo IPO: A No Go
- Superapp GoTo has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Indonesian Stock Exchange to raise US$1.2bn at a market capitalisation of US$25.0bn.
- The company plans to use most of the proceeds on developing its businesses including Gojek, Tokopedia and fintech services.
- Our analysis on the company’s financials suggests the company has been burning cash to grow its business and may not be able to generate any profits in the near future.
KOSPI 200 IT (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview
- KOSPI 200 IT sector index rebalances twice a year in June and December. The effective date for the upcoming rebalancing is June 10.
- The IT sector has a high degree of price cointegration of the stocks within the sector. Therefore, the impact/price correlation is robust despite a smaller impact size.
- At this point, the following three stocks deserve our attention: Samsung SDI, Kakao Pay, and LG Corp. We can expect a passive inflow of +0.15x for these highly liquid names.
Gitlab 4Q22 Earnings: Impressive
- Revenue grew 69% YoY to $78M vs. consensus at $70M (+52%), with very impressive underlying growth metrics that show the larger customers are the fastest growing.
- Increased selling through hyperscaler partners may aid S&M leverage over time.
- Acquisition of Opstrace accelerates the platform expansion into observability, but right now positioned vs. nonconsumption rather than against Datadog.
GoTo IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation
- Superapp GoTo (1379371D IJ) has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Indonesian Stock Exchange to raise US$1.1-1.25bn at a valuation of about US$24-26bn.
- The company plans to use the proceeds to develop its business including for customer acquisition, product development and sales and marketing.
- Our SOTP valuation implies that GoTo’s shares are overvalued at the indicative IPO price range.
BigCommerce: Stock Selloff Looks Finished As Valuation Hit $1.5 Billion
- Shares of BigCommerce Holdings (BIGC US) slipped below the IPO price of $24.00 per share, and at current valuation, we see limited downside risk for BigCommerce stock investors.
- In 2020, Intuit Inc (INTU US) offered to acquire BigCommerce for $1.5 billion, according to CNBC and other public sources. Both BigCommerce and Intuit didn’t provide a comment.
- Insider selling activity has slowed down noticeably over the past three months and BigCommerce Holdings (BIGC US) insiders sold ~$5 million worth of shares.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
