In today’s briefing:
- TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Position for ADR Premium Expansion
- StubWorld: Prosus’ Move On Russian Exposure Overdone
- Grab 4Q2021: Heavy Spending on Customer and Driver Incentives Hurts Earnings
- Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity
- Renesas – Synergies Outperform and Some Potentially Bad News for Arm
- MediaTek (2454.TT): We Expect High-End 5G Smartphone Chipset Will Aim at 10-14% Shipment in 2022.
- Bilibili (BILI): 4Q21, Slow Than Expected, But Many Positive Signals
TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Position for ADR Premium Expansion
- The premium of Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) to TSMC (2330 TT) has dropped from 10% to nearly parity in slightly less than a month.
- There is still no headroom available on the ADR and we expect the premium to move higher once the selling on the ADR is complete.
- The SGX has recently launched single stock futures on Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US). There could be market makers willing to provide liquidity which would make trade entry easier.
StubWorld: Prosus’ Move On Russian Exposure Overdone
- Prosus (PRX NA) shares have nose-dived in light of its exposure to Russia via its classified ads business Avito, and social media operator, VK Group. This move appears overdone.
- Preceding my comments on Prosus, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Grab 4Q2021: Heavy Spending on Customer and Driver Incentives Hurts Earnings
- Grab (GRAB US) reported 4Q2021 results yesterday (before market). IFRS revenue decreased 44.29% YoY to $122m (vs consensus $219m) compared to $219m in the same quarter a year ago.
- Adjusted EBITDA (loss) for the quarter was -$305m (vs consensus -$206m) compared to -$102m a year ago as the company heavily spent on incentives to attract and retain drivers.
- Grab’s shares have lost almost 40.0% during intra-day trading as its growth story did not bode well with the investors.
Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity
- Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102%, with rising margins and FCF generation.
- The 30% after hours drop was insane due to a misunderstanding of revenue guidance.
- An incredible entry point for those who wanted to buy Snowflake but were waiting for it to return to the low $200s
Renesas – Synergies Outperform and Some Potentially Bad News for Arm
- Renesas’ investor day today focused on providing more details on existing themes such as the progress of synergies from Dialog.
- The strong overall growth outlook and progress offering integrated solutions was also emphasised.
- However, what we found most interesting was some of their commentary on RISC-V developments.
MediaTek (2454.TT): We Expect High-End 5G Smartphone Chipset Will Aim at 10-14% Shipment in 2022.
- We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 and 9000 are targeting shipment of ~30-40mn and 5-10mn sets respectively, which means high-end 5G smartphone chipset will aim at 10-14% 5G shipment in 2022.
- We consider the inventory argument raised for China smartphone could be a kind of fake issue.
- In 5G era, the PMIC is about 2~3 times of 4G in size with the mature nodes.
Bilibili (BILI): 4Q21, Slow Than Expected, But Many Positive Signals
- The paying user base continued growing in 4Q21 and has space to grow further.
- Game revenue recovered for the second quarter, as the games launched last year began to earn money.
- BILI’s advertising revenue grew significantly faster than the market size of Chinese online advertising.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
