In today’s briefing:
- Nintendo (7974) – Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL
- Link Admin (LNK AU): 13 July Scheme Meeting As Dye & Durham Takes A Bath
- Nintendo – A Stock Split And Not Much Else
- Link’s Scheme Meeting on 13 July, High Spread Reflects Deal Risk
- Third Point First Quarter 2022 Investor Letter
- Aristotle Capital Management Large Cap Growth Q1 2022 Commentary
- Constellation Software ($CSU.TO, $CNSWF).
- Aristotle Capital Management Focus Growth Q1 2022 Commentary
Nintendo (7974) – Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL
- Nintendo has announced in-line-ish results for March 2022, and quite disappointing forecasts for March 2023. Mio Kato called it on 30 March as a sell. Excellent timing.
- Nintendo has a buyback tomorrow and if you don’t like the guidance, you should DEFINITELY read on below.
- But Nintendo also announced something truly extraordinary – a stock split. Everyone pooh-poohs the impact of a stock split but… in this case it is probably not nothing.
Link Admin (LNK AU): 13 July Scheme Meeting As Dye & Durham Takes A Bath
- The Supreme Court of New South Wales today approved the convening of a Scheme Meeting for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) on the 13 July.
- The Explanatory Booklet has been registered with ASIC. The Independent Expert (Deloitte) has concluded that the A$5.50/share Scheme Consideration is fair and reasonable.
- Separately, the Offeror, Canada’s Dye & Durham, has seen its shares decline 57% since the release of its 2Q22 results.
Nintendo – A Stock Split And Not Much Else
- Nintendo results were in-line with both revenue and OP within 1% of consensus.
- Guidance was extremely weak missing consensus by 5.5% at the revenue line and 20.5% at the OP line.
- Nintendo gonna Nintendo so this is nothing to panic about but it isn’t positive either… though the stock split is.
Link’s Scheme Meeting on 13 July, High Spread Reflects Deal Risk
- The Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) scheme meeting is scheduled for 13 July. The independent expert has concluded that the Dye & Durham (DND) offer is fair and reasonable.
- The offer faces significant risks which are ACCC review (findings delayed from the 26 May release date), a contract renewal potentially triggering the MAC clause and an ongoing FCA investigation.
- At the last close, the gross spread to the base offer is 10.7%. We would be buyers up to A$5.20 per share (implies 75% deal probability).
Third Point First Quarter 2022 Investor Letter
- The firm was founded in 1995 by Daniel S.
- Loeb, who serves as Chief Executive Officer.
- During the First Quarter, Third Point returned -11.5% in the flagship Offshore Fund.
- The path to wringing out the excesses in the financial system will be bumpy and create clear winners and losers.
Aristotle Capital Management Large Cap Growth Q1 2022 Commentary
- For the first quarter of 2022, Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite posted a total return of -9.61% gross of fees.
- We have also entered a period of increased geopolitical risks that will add to market volatility, according to Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap growth Composite.
Constellation Software ($CSU.TO, $CNSWF).
- Despite not dealing with celestial objects, the company itself is a grouping of vertical market software companies, of which are obtained based upon a set of rigid principles and quantitative standards that I will touch upon in later sections of this report.
- In addition, I would argue that much like constellations (in the astronomical sense of the word) being associated with mythical figures, CSI is directly tied to one of the most elusive, mysterious and fascinating business personalities of our era, Mark Leonard, someone you can see if you look close enough in the night’s sky.
- Out of all of the publicly traded companies I have written about thus far, CSI stands out amongst the pack.
Aristotle Capital Management Focus Growth Q1 2022 Commentary
- For the first quarter of 2022, Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite posted a total return of -9.30% gross of fees.
- In the near term, a recession seems unlikely with key economic indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index pointing to an expanding economy.
- The ISM manufacturing Index points to an growing economy.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
