In today’s briefing:
- MSCI Feb 2022 Index Rebalance: Day 1 Chosen Again
- Crypto Coding Tutorial Part 1 – Use 10 Lines of Python for In-Depth Analysis on Tokens
- I O Data Device (6916) MBO – Not as Clean And Nice As One Would Like
- Renesas – Accelerating
- Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Storefronts, Specialty, and Financing
- GOGOX IPO: Overseas Business Maintains Growth but China Biz Under Pressure Due to Competition
- Sumco – Consensus Probably Too Timid on Price Hikes
- ASE Holding (ASX.US, 3711.TT): The Outlook of 1Q22 Could Be a Bit Bearish as Actionable
- KCE: Revise 2022 TP Down by 7% to Reflect Short-Term Issues
MSCI Feb 2022 Index Rebalance: Day 1 Chosen Again
- There are 17 adds and 8 deletes for the Asia Pacific region. Most of the changes were expected, but there are a few surprises.
- China Resources Microelectronics-A (688396 CH), Grab (GRAB US) and Lufax Holdings (LU US) have been added, while Qinghai Salt Lake (000792 CH) and Pop Mart International (9992 HK) have not.
- The last tranche of Sea‘s inclusion in the SIMSCI INDEX will take place at the QIR. With the inclusion of GRAB, there will be two foreign listings in the SIMSCI.
Crypto Coding Tutorial Part 1 – Use 10 Lines of Python for In-Depth Analysis on Tokens
- Despite increasing popularity and market cap, most crypto tokens are not supported by mainstream terminals like Bloomberg, which makes data analysis inaccessible to many
- However, with a bit of coding knowledge, it’s very easy to generate extensive analytics on any cryptocurrency
- With only 10 lines of code, we show how anyone can perform analytics like volatility, Sharpe, drawdowns on any token. We used Terra (LUNA CURNCY) as an example here.
I O Data Device (6916) MBO – Not as Clean And Nice As One Would Like
- This MBO is designed to for the 77-year-old Founder to take the company private.
- The evolution of the balance sheet the last 12-18 months has been a little strange, and may not be benign. It has certainly changed the fair value lower.
- The question, as always, is whether someone will take this up.
Renesas – Accelerating
- Renesas’ 4Q results were strong as revenue came in well above guidance as we predicted, beating even our ¥310bn estimate at ¥314.4bn.
- EBITDA of ¥119.4bn was up 15.7% QoQ and should rise further thanks to a hefty backlog.
- We said previously that 2022 EBITDA could be on the order of ¥500-550bn rather than the ¥391bn which consensus projects… for reasons which escape us.
Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Storefronts, Specialty, and Financing
- Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) continues to expand the range of products it offers to its Mitras including logistics services and financial products but it is now extending more service to merchants.
- The platform’s Storefront offering aims to enable merchants which often operate through social commerce channels to improve their ability to attract and maintain customers and to facilitate payments and logistics.
- The Allo Bank stake was bought at 1.7x PBV and will grow through an ecosystem of 100m potential customers. Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks like value with positive newsflow.
GOGOX IPO: Overseas Business Maintains Growth but China Biz Under Pressure Due to Competition
- GOGOX is China’s second largest online intra-city logistics platform with operations in Hong kong, Singapore, Korea and India.
- The company’s application for a HK listing has been approved and according to news media outlets, will raise US$200-300m through the IPO.
- GOGOX’s overseas business has continued growth despite the pandemic, however, China business has been deteriorating due to intense competition.
Sumco – Consensus Probably Too Timid on Price Hikes
- Sumco’s 4Q results were on the strong side with revenue beating by 2.3% and OP beating by 2.0%.
- 1Q guidance was also bullish with revenue guidance of ¥99bn 5.3% higher than consensus while OP guidance of ¥21bn was 12.8% higher.
- Guidance is still a touch conservative in our view, particularly on the margin side.
ASE Holding (ASX.US, 3711.TT): The Outlook of 1Q22 Could Be a Bit Bearish as Actionable
- Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4% and ~NT$150bn/19.5% in 4Q21/1Q22 respectively.
- China has massive local efforts on OSAT business because of low entry barrier. In our views, China can exist very well in lower profit margin to compete.
- The worldwide OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Testing) companies of scale are majorly centered in Asia Pacific area.
KCE: Revise 2022 TP Down by 7% to Reflect Short-Term Issues
- Analyst meeting came out with negative tone regarding 22E outlook.We cut our TP by 7% to Bt95.8,derived from 38.4xPE’22E (+1SD of 5Y trading average), to factor in earnings downgrade. But
- Recent drop in share price factored in concern on rising material costs and delay in launching new factory which should be a short-term issue and should provide opportunity share accumulation
- We cut our 22E earnings forecast down by 7% to factor in lower margin due to rising copper material costs and lower revenue due to delay in launching new factory.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
