In this briefing:
- Telstra Dividend: Does the 22cps Dividend (7% Yield) Hold? We Think It Does.
- China Tower: Changing Our View to Positive. Low Cost Expansion Should Generate Better Returns
- IPO Trading Strategy: A Deep-Dive on Early Trade of Chinese Companies Listing in the US
- China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups
- Mobvista IPO Trading Update – Not a Buyer at Anywhere Close to These Level
1. Telstra Dividend: Does the 22cps Dividend (7% Yield) Hold? We Think It Does.
Telstra’s (TLS AU) share price continues to drift downwards as more questions are asked about the dividend outlook. Optus has backed up its new mobile marketing campaign with big increases in data allowances across MBB (mobile broadband) price points. Reports suggest TPG (TPM AU) is still talking up ‘disruptive’ mobile data pricing despite its lack of network coverage and capacity. The ACCC (competition commission) is due to make a draft decision on the merger with VHA tomorrow (13 December) and it is known to favor a disruptive 4th MNO. We expect the merger to proceed.
2. China Tower: Changing Our View to Positive. Low Cost Expansion Should Generate Better Returns
At the time of the IPO we were quite negative on China Tower (788 HK) prospects. However, in recent calls and meetings our view has changed and become more constructive. Chris Hoare now believes that China Tower is managing to generate co-location growth outside the Master Services Agreement (MSA) and at a much lower level of capital intensity (perhaps up to 50%) than indicated in the IPO. Management has also proven to be more open to shareholders than expected and with lower capex, higher FCF generation we upgrade to a BUY with a HK$1.60 target price. The stock has started to move as the market has begun to understand the more positive outlook. It will be interesting to see if China Tower is allowed to retain these benefits long term.
Summary China Tower forecasts:
3. IPO Trading Strategy: A Deep-Dive on Early Trade of Chinese Companies Listing in the US
Ahead of Tencent Music (TME US)‘s IPO today , we have done a deep-dive analysis on the past 28 major Chinese IPOs that have listed in the US. We note the following points
A higher pop associated with a lower free float?
If it starts weak , we wouldn’t assume disaster – historically shares have broken above IPO price at some point during day one trade
Day one moves by pricing range – pops across the board
GER pricing view for Tencent music
Companies assessed in this report: X Financial (XYF US) , Qudian Inc (QD US) , Pinduoduo (PDD US) , Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US) , HUYA Inc (HUYA US) , Pintec Technology Holdings L (PT US) , 111 Inc (YI US) , Uxin Ltd (UXIN US) , BEST Inc (BSTI US) , Sunlands Online Education Gr (STG US) , Cango Inc (CANG US) , Huami Corp (HMI US) , Sea Ltd (SE US) , Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US) , Viomi Technology Co Ltd (VIOT US) , Weidai Ltd (WEI US) , Jianpu Technology (JT US) , Greentree Hospitality (GHG US) , iQIYI Inc (IQ US), Sogou Inc (SOGO US) , Onesmart Education (ONE US) , CNFinance Holdings Ltd (1640496D US) , TuanChe Ltd (TC US) , NIO Inc (NIO US) , CooTek Cayman Inc (CTK US) , Niu Technologies (NIU US) , Mogu (MOGU US) , and Bilibili Inc (BILI US)
More details below
4. China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups
We are playing any surprise bounce via Shanghai A 50 futures and the HSCE.
RIO tactical bounce trade presented.
Duration defensive long set ups outlined with stops and rally targets in China Mobile and SK Telecom.
KLSE bear triangle second trade in the making for a press toward 1,620/15.
In Europe, Italy is lagging the break down and a prime short candidate for a break below triple lows/out of flat congestion.
S&P tactical break points outlined with a bounce set up in the DJI. Base case view is to short a bounce.
Higher conviction pivot levels for a USD/JPY short are laid out with action turn levels and risk points.
5. Mobvista IPO Trading Update – Not a Buyer at Anywhere Close to These Level
Mobvista (1860 HK)‘s IPO was priced just above the low-end at HKD4/share, the retail tranche was 1.8x covered while the institutional tranche was moderately oversubscribed. I have covered most aspects of the deal in my earlier insights:
- Mobvista Pre-IPO – Impairments Would Have Wiped off past Profit, Related Parties Still Owed Money, and
- Mobvista IPO – One Client Rescued 1H18, the Slowdown Has Been on Since 2H17. P/ E Doesn’t Matter
In this insight, I’ll provide an update on the deal dynamics, valuations and provide a table with the implied valuations at different share price levels.
