Daily TMT & Internet: Intel Touts 3D Logic Scaling, Chiplets & Hybrid Design To Extend Moore’s Law and more

In this briefing:

1. Intel Touts 3D Logic Scaling, Chiplets & Hybrid Design To Extend Moore’s Law
2. Korea M&A Spotlight: Nexon’s Founder Plans to Sell; Will Tencent Buy Nexon?
3. Sea Ltd: A Surprise Winner in Cut-Throat E-Commerce Battle?
4. Jardine C&C (JCNC SP): Close the Stub Trade
5. StubWorld: A 2018 Review In Charts

1. Intel Touts 3D Logic Scaling, Chiplets & Hybrid Design To Extend Moore’s Law

During an invitation-only Architecture Day held on December 11’th 2018,  Intel revealed three key strategies aimed at extending Moore’s Law. The first, 3D Logic packaging, aims to increase effective transistor density by scaling up rather than down, similar to the CoWoS technology introduced by Taiwan Semiconductor in 2012. The second, switching to multiple, smaller “chiplet” processor cores, is required to address the thermal and yield challenges precipitated by the progression of ever larger multi-core monolithic processor die and is the key foundation underpinning Advanced Micro Devices‘s Zen-based architecture. The third is a hybrid architecture aimed at reducing power consumption and clearly reminiscent of ARM’s big.LITTLE approach which was first introduced some six years ago and now widely used today in smartphone and tablet SOCs. 

At the event, Intel showcased their first product based on these three key concepts and it features a large Core processor combined with four smaller Atom processors, all manufactured on the same piece of silicon, an approach the company refers to as Hybrid x86. Intel confirmed that it will be the basis for a new line of products set to launch in the second half of 2019.

They say that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and, based on what Intel had to say at its Architecture Day, TSMC, AMD and ARM will likely be flattered in equal measure. 

2. Korea M&A Spotlight: Nexon’s Founder Plans to Sell; Will Tencent Buy Nexon?

It was reported today that Nexon Co Ltd (3659 JP)’s founder Kim Jung-Joo plans to sell a controlling stake in Nexon’s holding company NXC Corp for at least 10 trillion won ($8.9 billion). Kim Jung-Joo and other related parties plan to sell their entire 98.64% stake in NXC Corp, which owns a 47.98% stake in Nexon. The 10 trillion won or more anticipated acquisition price for NXC Corp would include a significant management premium. Nexon Group’s shareholding structure is basically as follows: Kim Jung-Joo → Nexon (Japan) → Nexon Korea → About 10 affiliates. 

One of the reasons why the Nexon’s founder Kim Jung-Joo, who is only 50 years old, is trying to sell his entire stake in Nexon may have been due to the recent allegations about him giving about $380,000 worth of Nexon stock (prior to its listing) to his old high school classmate (who is now a senior public prosecutor) for free. Kim Jung-Joo has repeatedly faced allegations and attended numerous court hearings on this matter in the past two years. He may have gotten a bit tired from all these allegations. 

Given the enormous size of this acquisition, the two leading Korean game companies including NCsoft Corp (036570 KS) and Netmarble Games (251270 KS) are not likely to purchase Nexon. Rather, the leading contender to buy Nexon right now is likely to be Tencent Holdings (700 HK). The sheer huge size of this deal will represent one of the largest M&A deals in Asia in 2019. 

3. Sea Ltd: A Surprise Winner in Cut-Throat E-Commerce Battle?

• A big takeaway from our conversations with Indo e-commerce industry sources is that they vouch for Shopee’s (Sea Ltd’s (SE US) e-commerce arm) MS gains story in the country.
• Indo e-commerce market has been enjoying super growth period (94% CAGR in 2015-18E) despite three major challenges (logistics, payment and highly subsidized market).
• With SE’s fund raising a matter of when, not if (2H20 as most likely timetable), Shopee’s tremendous progress in key metrics (MS, take rate) provides comfort.
• Assuming fair valuation of US$3 bn (vs. US$1.4 bn implied in SE’s ADR price) for Shopee, 12-mo PT for SE works out to be US$15.73/ADR, representing 43% upside potential.  

4. Jardine C&C (JCNC SP): Close the Stub Trade

In my original insight on October 17, 2018 TRADE IDEA – Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) Stub , I proposed setting up a stub trade to profit from volatility in the markets that caused the Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) stub to trade at a historically low discount to NAV. During the 78 calendar days that followed, Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) has gained 23% and the trade has made 5.03% on the gross notional. I now recommend closing the trade.

In this insight I will discuss:

• Performance of ALL my recommended stub trades
• a post-mortem trade analysis on the JCNC stub

5. StubWorld: A 2018 Review In Charts

This week in StubWorld …

• The average NAV discount of a basket of 40 Holdcos steadily, and not altogether unsurprisingly, widened throughout the year.
• Passive, tech-related and illiquid Holdcos widened most; while cross-border and property Holdcos were the best of the worst.  
• Illiquid, property, and passive Holdcos’ underperformance (or widening) was more pronounced in the first half. Tech Holdcos primarily widened in the second half.
• Worst performers (discount widening): In absolute % terms, United Co Rusal Plc (486 HK) and Asm International Nv (ASM NA) roughly shared the largest moves; while Dah Sing Financial (440 HK), First Pacific Co (142 HK), Genting Bhd (GENT MK) and Pasona Group (2168 JP) are trading at or near their 52-week wides and 52-week low prices.
• Best performers (discount narrowing): China Conch Venture Holdings Ltd (586 HK) is the only Holdco in positive territory; while Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is trading closest to its narrowest level in the last 12 months.

Below the various NAV discount chart summaries of various baskets are my weekly setup/unwind tables.

This, and other relationships discussed below, trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% ‘market capitalisation’ threshold, whereby the value of the holding/Opco held must be at least 20% of the parent’s market cap.

Comments on Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP) / Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP) also follow the setup/unwind tables.