Daily TMT & Internet: Chinese Telcos: Rising Capex Expectations a Risk. Downgrade China Mob and China Tel to Neutral. and more

In this briefing:

1. Chinese Telcos: Rising Capex Expectations a Risk. Downgrade China Mob and China Tel to Neutral.
2. Korea M&A Spotlight: Saudi Aramco Plans to Buy Up To 19.9% Stake in Hyundai Oilbank
3. SEC and SK Hynix Breakouts
4. The GER Weekly EVENTS Wrap: Pinduoduo, Softbank, Healthscope, M1, and Near-Term M&A Catalysts
5. Hyundai Heavy Holdco Trade: Long Holdco / Short HHI (30%) & SKI (70%) On Aramco Deal

1. Chinese Telcos: Rising Capex Expectations a Risk. Downgrade China Mob and China Tel to Neutral.

We have been positive on the Chinese telcos, in part due to our thesis that peak 5G capex expectations were too high for China Mobile. That has largely played out as capex expectations have come down and the stock has performed well. The telcos see a steady state approach to 5G capex as the best way forward given the lack of a current business case. However, there are larger forces at work which imply higher capex – the need to support Huawei/ZTE (763 HK) given the moves against Chinese equipment manufacturers internationally, and the likelihood of economic stimulus packages.

We have downgraded China Mobile (941 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) to Neutral as the risk now is that capex expectations start to rise again. China Unicom (762 HK) remains a BUY as it trades at a much lower multiple. We reiterate our preference for China Tower (788 HK) which is exposed positively to rising telecom capex.

We have increased our 2020 capex expectations for Chinese Telcos. China Mobile most affected (RMB bn)

2. Korea M&A Spotlight: Saudi Aramco Plans to Buy Up To 19.9% Stake in Hyundai Oilbank

It was announced today that Saudi Aramco plans to purchase up to 19.9% stake in Hyundai Oilbank for about 1.8 trillion won from Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS) (HHIH), which would suggest nearly 9 trillion won in total value for Hyundai Oilbank. The following are the major highlights of the potential investment in Hyundai Oilbank by Saudi Aramco:

• Higher dividends for both Hyundai Oilbank and Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings – At end of 2018, HHIH converted nearly 2 trillion won of capital surplus into retained earnings, which should allow the company to pay out higher dividends. HHIH has already declared that its long term plans include maintaining a 5% dividend yield and more than 70% dividend payout. 
• Greater Investments in Robotics – HHIH is likely to use a big portion of the proceeds from the sale of its stake in Hyundai Oilbank to further invest in the robotics business.
• Our sum-of-the-parts valuation of Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings suggests a value of 487,000 won, which is 28% higher than current share price. 

3. SEC and SK Hynix Breakouts

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS) have cleared key resistance levels that open the way for intermediate gains with a ST peak due in late January that will offer better entry points on weakness in February.

The rally from late December is moving into extended territory. Buy volumes have improved as has upside momentum.

This breakout has also induced a tactical buy signal in the Kospi 200 index above the pivotal 278 resistance but breadth is still mixed to weak. We need to see better upside action in the broader market for a sustainable rise in Korea.

Refer to our insight SK Hynix Met Our Short to Long Reverse Target from October 2018. We were a bit early on picking the low.

4. The GER Weekly EVENTS Wrap: Pinduoduo, Softbank, Healthscope, M1, and Near-Term M&A Catalysts

In this version of the GER weekly events wrap, we assess the recent lock-up expiry for Pinduoduo (PDD US) which may have led to a short squeeze. Secondly, we assess the debt tender for Softbank Group (9984 JP) which may be supporting the equity. Finally, we provide updates on bids for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and Healthscope Ltd (HSO AU) as well as update a list of upcoming M&A and equity bottom-up catalysts. 

The rest of our event-driven research can be found below. 

Best of luck for the new week – Rickin, Venkat and Arun

5. Hyundai Heavy Holdco Trade: Long Holdco / Short HHI (30%) & SKI (70%) On Aramco Deal

• Korea’s local news outlet reported that Saudi Aramco agrees to buy a 15~20% stake in Hyundai Oilbank Co Ltd (1082Z KS) in a pre-IPO deal. Aramco has reported priced Oilbank at ₩10tril. Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS) is currently at a 50% discount to NAV. Assuming no change in Oilbank’s ₩10tril value reaffirmed by Aramco, this is like a 6%p drop in two months.
• At this much holdco discount, I’d go long HHIH on the Aramco deal. This will make enough cash injection to Holdco. Oilbank’s ₩10tril valuation stays intact despite the recent de-valuation of the local peers on falling oil prices.
• Holdco is basically 70% Oilbank and 30% HHI. I’d first pick Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) for 30%. The HHIH/HHI duo is at 20D MA. But on 120D horizon, they are pretty closer to the lowest. For the other 70%, I’d short SK Innovation (096770 KS). SK Innovation has been less price corrected lately compared with S Oil. On a 20D MA, the HHIH/SK Innovation duo is close to -1σ.