Brief TMT & Internet: Topcon (7732 JP): Weak 3Q, Likely to Fall Short of FY Mar-19 Guidance and more

In this briefing:

1. Topcon (7732 JP): Weak 3Q, Likely to Fall Short of FY Mar-19 Guidance
2. EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging
3. Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) – Digital Revolution in the Spring – On the Ground in J-Town
4. Telstra: Earnings Under Pressure in FY19 but Move to Mobile Should Lead to Gains from FY20.
5. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

1. Topcon (7732 JP): Weak 3Q, Likely to Fall Short of FY Mar-19 Guidance

Topcon’s FY Mar-19 guidance looks over-optimistic. Operating profit was up 8.5% year-on-year on a 1.4% increase in sales in the nine months to December, but down 10.1% on a 2.3% decrease in sales in 3Q. To make management’s full-year targets, it would have to increase by 41.0% on a 6.8% increase in sales in 4Q. The sales of all three major product segments – Smart Infrastructure, Positioning and Eye Care – have been slow. Intra-company eliminations have undercut segment profits.

At ¥1,561 (Friday, March 1, close), the shares are selling at 23.6x our EPS estimate for this fiscal year and 9.8x projected EV/EBITDA. These multiples compare with 5-year historical lows of 16.1x and 6.8x. Japan Analytics’ calculation of Annual No-Growth Valuation shows further downside risk (see chart below). 

2. EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today’s report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.

3. Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) – Digital Revolution in the Spring – On the Ground in J-Town

A meeting Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) in Jakarta found management in a relatively ebullient mood. The share price performance has been slightly perplexing the fact that its digital strategy is close to coming to fruition, with upcoming acquisitions representing a positive catalyst.

The company will move forward on acquiring controlling stakes in digital streaming player www.vidio.com, internet company www.kapanlagi.com, and out of home media advertising player EYE Indonesia.

Total revenues from the digital and non-TV space will grow from less than 5% of SCMA’s total revenue to nearly 20% of the total, making it the biggest player in both free-to-air and a major player in digital adverting in Indonesia.

Vidio.com is especially interesting given how fragmented that market is currently. Iy=t already has 22m active users viewing its sport and local content but is looking to bring in a major global player to help finance original content and bring in more international content. 

Internet companies represent the biggest and fastest growing advertising customers outside FMCG. They are increasingly paying above market rates for up to two-hour exclusive slots on prime time, where they air their own programming which allows them to engage with the audience. 

The recent Kraft Heinz Co (KHC US) debacle may signal the end of zero-based budgeting, which may mean global players such as Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) start to spend more on advertising. in the meantime, local FMCG players remain more aggressive on advertising their products on TV. 

Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) remains the best quality proxy to the advertising market in Indonesia. The upcoming acquisitions in the digital space represent strong potential catalysts for the stock, which have not yet been factored into valuations. Its core business continues to register stable and rising growth, especially from local FMCG players, with the re-entry of the tobacco companies potentially representing another boon for this year, given there has been no excise tax increase. According to Capital IQ consensus, the company is trading on 15.3x FY19E PER and 13.8x FY20E PER, with forecasts EPS growth of +8.5% and +10.5% for FY19E and FY20E respectively.  The company is forecast to achieve an ROE of 33% in 2019, with a dividend yield of 4.2%. 

4. Telstra: Earnings Under Pressure in FY19 but Move to Mobile Should Lead to Gains from FY20.

Recently, Telstra (TLS AU) reported 1H19 numbers which showed declines in revenue, EBITDA and net profit.  That seems to have put the brakes on a decent share price recovery (Telstra shares had risen 14% to their recent peak YTD). And with the weak numbers, Telstra cut its interim dividend to 8cps. The result was well telegraphed to the market so did not come as a huge surprise, although Ian Martin had hoped the dividend would not be cut. Our view remains that Telstra is working to get through two years of change, with 2019 seen as the bottom for earnings. There are plenty of risks ahead and, with dividend support reduced, we have put Telstra back on a Hold recommendation with a target price of $A$3.30. The three year outlook is promising as Telstra switches the focus to mobile, delivers on its T22 strategy and works through several NBN related issues. 

Telstra summary P&L  – a three year view

5. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$150m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

While TIGR has grown at a stupendous pace over the past three years, it has been able to do so owing to IBKR doing most of the heavy lifting of execution and clearing. While its trying to change that now, nearly all the revenue is still being driven by its IBKR affiliation.

I’ve covered some of the aspects of TIGR’s model in Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics. In this insight, I’ll take a quick look at the company’s performance and the issues highlighted above.