In this briefing:
- Silverlake Axis Rally Ignition and Hurdles
- TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: HK & Macau Gained ‘Share’ in December, Continuing H218 Trend
1. Silverlake Axis Rally Ignition and Hurdles
Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) triggered a buy above the triangle formation break at 0.43 and the daily MACD barrier outlined in our recent update Silver Lake Bottom Targets . The pick up in buy volumes were noted as an underlying positive as rally energy started to take shape.
Buy volumes have picked up nicely after noted accumulation in late 2018.
The failure to reach for a final low has set in motion the rally toward medium term pivot resistance and more importantly a test on the higher end of the intermediate range.
Near term, this rally is looking extended. We like buying weakness for a press through pocket resistance. Silverlake rallies tend to be explosive.
2. TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: HK & Macau Gained ‘Share’ in December, Continuing H218 Trend
Tracking Traffic/Chinese Tourism is the hub for all of our research on China’s tourism sector. This monthly report features analysis of Chinese tourism data, notes from our conversations with industry participants, and links to recent company news and thematic pieces. Our aim is to highlight important trends in China’s tourism sector (and changes to those trends).
In this issue readers can find:
- As it has throughout the latter half of 2018, HK & Macau traffic boomed in December: Over the last several months, we believe Chinese tourists have been staying ‘closer to home’, for a variety of reasons. December’s Chinese outbound tourist figures support this idea, as visits to nearby Hong Kong and Macau surged, and trips to destinations farther afield moderated.
- An analysis of December domestic Chinese travel activity, which remained subdued: Overall domestic travel demand, measured in passenger-kms, grew by 3.4% in December, similar to H118 growth. But while rail and highway travel growth held up relatively well compared to earlier in 2018, air travel in December was again weak relative to H118’s strength, up 9.1% after climbing 13.8% in the first half of the year.
- China-to-USA travel activity continued to weaken in December: US tourist and student visa issuance and visits to Hawaii all declined again in December. We think the declines reflect some Chinese tourists turning cautious on the economy (and thus disposable income), but the declines may also reflect changing Chinese policy.
Although we remain positive on the long-term growth of Chinese tourism, it’s clear that near-term demand growth has slowed, and that Chinese tourists are generally staying closer to home and probably spending less than they were a year ago.
Happy New Year (of the Pig)!
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