In this briefing:
- NVIDIA Pressure on AMD
- Softbank: A Strong Tender Result
- NTT (9432 JP) Remains the Broadband King in Japan, Both for Fixed Line and Mobile
- Intel. Dogged By Headwinds In The Year Of The Pig
- Ebang IPO Preview: Balance Sheet Indicators Point to a Significant Slowdown
1. NVIDIA Pressure on AMD
Nvidia Corp (NVDA US) is moving back toward macro chart support levels. If these levels hold there is scope for a basing cycle to unfold that would lead to a positive turn for NVDA. During this process, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) will feel additional pressure to test macro support outlined in AMD Buy Support and Tactics . We reiterate macro support levels in this webcast.
NVDA’s MACD reveals a clear cycle – The break below floor support will now act as a ceiling and does telegraph a new and lower trading range.
Our SOX sell call last summer still has a few final touches to complete the major bear cycle with a key low due near May 2019. We are near, but not yet at the cycle trough.
A webcast runs through key pivot points.
2. Softbank: A Strong Tender Result
Softbank Group (9984 JP) released the results of its 750mn USD tender for its Euro and USD commercial paper, which could also portend further support for the equity ahead of results next Wednesday. More details below.
3. NTT (9432 JP) Remains the Broadband King in Japan, Both for Fixed Line and Mobile
With its nationwide fiber optic network infrastructure, NTT continues to dominate the fixed line broadband market in Japan with 68% market share. In this Insight we explore the fixed line broadband market in Japan today and how it is evolving, especially with the increasing dominance of “collaboration” offerings that bundle fiber with mobile services.
Mobile services are getting a lot of attention today, especially in the run up to 5G launches over the coming 12 months, but without fiber backhaul, 5G would be a nonstarter. In this Insight we investigate what 5G will bring and what is needed to support it as well as the telcos’ latest plans.
NTT is not just an incumbent telecom operator, it’s also a key player for future technologies and provides the physical infrastructure and architecture for many of the industries new services.With all the talk about 5G it is sometimes easy to forget that fixed line networks are still necessary. With NTT’s strong fiber-based network and its collaborations with NTT Docomo and many other partners in mobile and data, we believe NTT is well positioned to be a key and winning player in the evolving telecom and technology space.
4. Intel. Dogged By Headwinds In The Year Of The Pig
Intel‘s fourth quarter 2018 results last week missed on earnings to the tune of $360 million. That, combined with a tepid outlook for 2019 YoY growth of just 1% spooked investors, sending the stock down over 5% on three times the normal trading volume the following day.
Lagging process technology leadership, ever increasing competition from ARM, AMD and NVIDIA, lower modem sales as iPhone unit shipments decline, falling NAND prices, data center spending significantly reduced as the hyperscalers digest and optimise their record-breaking build-out will all weigh heavily on the company in the coming quarters.
After a record breaking 2018 which saw the company’s annual revenue grow 13% to edge north of the $70 billion mark for the first time ever, Intel now faces a growing array of headwinds which will dog the company for the Year of the Pig.
5. Ebang IPO Preview: Balance Sheet Indicators Point to a Significant Slowdown
Ebang (EBANG HK) is a Chinese designer of bitcoin mining machines which are sold under the Ebit brand. Ebang refiled its draft prospectus with HKEX on 20 December 2018, but the IPO plans of cryptocurrency related companies are in a state of flux. Last week, the CEO of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, said that companies seeking to go public in Hong Kong should show consistency in their business models, in response to questions about the IPO applications of Bitmain Technologies Ltd (1374554D CH), Canaan Inc. (CANAAN HK) and Ebang.
While 1H18 results were strong, Ebang cautions that it experienced significant decreases in revenue and gross profit for 3Q18 compared to 2Q18. In the absence of any 3Q18 financial metrics, we scrutinised the financial accounts to find clues on the extent of the slowdown. Our analysis of the financial accounts’ leading indicators points to a rapid slowdown.
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