In this briefing:
- Nexon M&A: Amazon & Comcast Enter the Race – It Ain’t Over Till Its Over!
- AMD. Market Share Gains Across The Board As Intel Vows To Fight To Protect Its Position
- Autohome (ATHM): Promising Auto Loan, Waiting for Buying Opportunity
- Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
1. Nexon M&A: Amazon & Comcast Enter the Race – It Ain’t Over Till Its Over!
In a surprising move, it was reported after the market close today that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) (market cap of US$804 billion) and Comcast (US$176 billion) will enter the race and have submitted initial bids to acquire Nexon Co Ltd (3659 JP)/NXC Corp.
The entrance of Amazon and Comcast is a major positive surprise and it should have a strong positive impact on Nexon’s share price. Prior to the entrance of Amazon and Comcast in this M&A battle, the market was firmly leaning towards the consortium including Tencent, Netmarble Games, and MBK Partners to acquire NXC Corp/Nexon.
Now, Amazon and Comcast’s entrance into this M&A battle has made it a lot more exciting and uncertain. Nexon Co Ltd (3659 JP)‘s share price is up 19% YTD but its share price trend has been flattening out in February. In the next few weeks, we expect further boost to Nexon’s share price (15%+), mainly because a lot more investors will think that the Tencent consortium, Amazon, and Comcast will try to pay higher price to acquire NXC Corp/Nexon. Kudos to Nexon shareholders!
2. AMD. Market Share Gains Across The Board As Intel Vows To Fight To Protect Its Position
Some two years on from the initial launch of products designed around their new Zen-based architecture, Advanced Micro Devices is finally gaining meaningful traction in terms of market share gains. In Q4 2018, AMD gained market share in desktop, mobile, and server sequentially and year over year – the fourth straight quarter of gains in all segments as well as their highest market shares across all segments in almost five years. Perhaps the most significant accomplishment was in server where AMD’s share doubled QoQ to 3.2%, according to data supplied by Mercury Research.
As you might expect, Intel is taking notice, acknowledging the competitive environment on its latest earnings call and vowing to fight to protect its position. In light of the 25-30% reduction in the price of Intel’s latest and highest end desktop processors on leading German online retailer MindFactory since their launch last October, it would appear that Intel’s battle tactics include sacrificing ASPs where it deems fit.
3. Autohome (ATHM): Promising Auto Loan, Waiting for Buying Opportunity
- The 4Q2018 results suggest that it is a right decision to close out direct automobile sales and start auto loan.
- The 4Q2018 results also suggest that ATHM has successfully completed the post-acquisition integration after three years.
- Peer companies’P/E ratios suggest ATHM is fairly valued, but we believe it will be a good opportunity to accumulate if the stock price falls.
4. Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise upto US$130m in its US listing. The deal has been downsized from its earlier indicative size of US$300m and the valuation too has been downsized by almost the same extent to around US$1.2-1.5bn.
In my earlier insights, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry and Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance.
In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuations. At the low-end the deal might be worth looking into, although free-float might end up being very small owing to US$30m being taken up Tencent which would leave just about US$100m as free-float.
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