In this briefing:
- Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade
- XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia
1. Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade
We recently downgraded the Chinese telcos on rising concerns that the telcos will be required to do “national service” to support China’s technological leadership in 5G. The closure of many overseas markets to Chinese equipment suppliers (esp Huawei, but also Zte Corp H (763 HK)) means the risk of a more aggressive 5G roll-out has increased. Markets have started to take notice but the initial reaction has been positive on excitement over the 5G opportunity. Given the lack of a strong business case for 5G currently, we don think additional capex is a positive. We model what an extreme roll-out could look like and the impact on the telcos. Along with a weakening macro outlook, we have further downgraded target prices for all three operators and cut China Mobile (941 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) to Reduce and China Unicom (762 HK) to Neutral.
2. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia
Xl Axiata’s (EXCL IJ) 4Q18 results triggered a very strong rally last week that continues this week. The market has been very concerned about competitive pressures in Indonesia and extremely low data prices. We believe that Indonesia is now past the worst and there is evidence that data pricing is starting to rise modestly. That is delivering a powerful tail wind for Indonesian telcos in 2019, with XL Axiata likely to report several very strong quarters.
XL Axiata now reporting strong sequential revenue growth (% QoQ)
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
