In this briefing:
- AIS Growth Has Been Slowing as DTAC Returns to the Scene. 2019 Outlook Uncertain.
- ECM Weekly (16 February 2019) – ByteDance, Embassy Office REIT, AB InBev Asia, CStone, Dexin
- LG Uplus – CJ Hello Acquisition: Current Yield Is 10%, CJH Overhang Concerns Will Push It Up
- ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)
- Delta’s Less-Than-Straightforward Tender Offer
1. AIS Growth Has Been Slowing as DTAC Returns to the Scene. 2019 Outlook Uncertain.
We met AIS (ADVANC TB) earlier this week at their Analyst Day in Bangkok. The recent results confirm our concerns over market growth slowing, with service revenue flat YoY. The guided 4-6% growth for 2019 may be difficult to achieve. On the mobile side, AIS is feeling competitive pressure from a resurgent DTAC (DTAC TB) and continuing gains from TRUE (TRUE TB) . While “hostilities” have eased recently (less aggressive price offers), we remain wary of the outlook for 2019. On the fixed side, AIS is making slow progress and we continue to think M&A is warranted.
There was a fair amount of discussion around 5G at the meeting, but this looks like a long term issue for AIS. Thailand has never been in the forefront on telecom technology upgrades in the past and there is plenty to do with 4G and fixed broadband still.
Chris Hoare remains cautious on AIS in the current slowing environment, and ahead of delayed elections. Earnings forecasts have edged lower recently and that is translating to lower dividends (a 70% payout ratio to be retained for now). We remain at Neutral with a target price of THB187.
2. ECM Weekly (16 February 2019) – ByteDance, Embassy Office REIT, AB InBev Asia, CStone, Dexin
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
It has been a fairly quiet week in the ECM space.
We are hearing that Douyu (game streaming like HUYA Inc (HUYA US), Tiger Brokers (backed by Jim Rogers), Genshuixue (education) have either filed confidentially or seeking to list in the US.
In Hong Kong, Bank of Guizhou is said to be planning for a US$1bn IPO and we heard that Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management is pre-marketing for its US$200m IPO. The PHIP has already been filed on the Hong Kong Exchange.
For upcoming IPOs, Dexin China Holdings (2019 HK) opened its books on Thursday, seeking to raise up to US$220m. We covered the IPO in Dexin China (德信中国) IPO Review – Key Issues Remain but 9M Results Showed Strong Growth.
In India, Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) pushed back its IPO to March – April. Sumeet Singh has already written a pre-IPO note, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish.
Last but not least, in Korea, Douglas Kim has already written an note on the Homeplus REIT (HREIT KS)‘s US$1.5bn IPO in Homeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea.
Other pre-IPO notes on upcoming mega IPOs that Aequitas Research have covered include ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1), ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2), and Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China.
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.8% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
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New IPO filings
- Reliance General Insurance (re-filed, India)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
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News on Upcoming IPOs
- PineBridge-backed Uniparts gets SEBI nod to float IPO
- Cal-Comp Philippines eyes IPO by third quarter
- JERA new president says IPO is an option
- Singapore’s Zalora explores listing to fuel expansion
- S. Korea’s Homeplus files for up to $1.5 bln REIT IPO
- Korean bio unicorn in the making, Voronoi, to join the Kosdaq this year
Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- Homeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea
- Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis
- Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
- CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
- Hansoh Pharma IPO Preview: A Decent Story Tarnished by a Huge Pre-IPO Dividend
- Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
- ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)
- ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)
- Dreamtech IPO: Valuation Analysis
- Dexin China (德信中国) IPO Review – Key Issues Remain but 9M Results Showed Strong Growth
List of pre-IPO Coverage on Smartkarma
3. LG Uplus – CJ Hello Acquisition: Current Yield Is 10%, CJH Overhang Concerns Will Push It Up
- LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) actually pays ₩800bil (not ₩1tril) for the controlling stake of CJ Hello (037560 KS) from CJ ENM (035760 KS). LG Uplus gets not all of the shares owned by CJ ENM. It gets a total 38,723,433 shares. This is 50% + 1 share. Cost per share is ₩20,659. This is a 107% premium.
- I suggested a long/short trade on LGU+/CJH starting this Monday on the grounds that their MC ratio should revert back to above 10. This trade is paying off very handsomely now. Current yield stands at 10.5%. But I wouldn’t close this position yet.
- CJ ENM still owns nearly 4% CJH stake. SKT owns 8.61%. Neither of them has any reason to retain these shares. LG Uplus doesn’t seem to be interested in getting any of these additional shares. This means one thing. It is very likely that CJH will suffer huge stock overhang concerns.
- Not only that, merger between them is inevitable. The LGU+/CJH MC ratio should be reverted back to 10. The MC ratio is now at 8.4. We still have more room on this. I expect it to reach at least near 9 level in very near future. I’d hold onto this position until then.
4. ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)
In our first insight (link here) covering ByteDance, we discuss ByteDance’s app matrix, the differentiating factors of ByteDance and the key difference between its Jinri Toutiao app and Tencent News.
In this insight, we will discuss in details its next blockbuster app, Tiktok. Similar to Jinri Toutiao, it is utilizing AI technology for content curation. In addition to that, the app also uses AI technology to beautify content producers. Compared to text-based content, the short-video content is more viral.
In the next insight, we will look at the company’s overseas expansion, past series of financing and valuation.
5. Delta’s Less-Than-Straightforward Tender Offer
On 1st August 2018, Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) (“DELTA”) announced that Delta Electronics International (Singapore) (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Delta Electronics (2308 TT) “DEISG”) had made a conditional voluntary tender offer to acquire the remaining 70.97% stake in DELTA it does not own at Bt71/share, a 1.79% premium to last close (28% above its recent low), in a deal worth potentially up to US$2.1bn.
On Wednesday, DELTA announced that DEISG has successfully accomplished the conditions precedent requirements, that of the antitrust approvals being granted by authorities in US, Europe and China.
The transaction will now move to a tender offer, which is expected to be open for acceptances at the beginning of next month with the consideration potentially paid the second week of April.
But there are a number of unknowns to the tender offer:
- Will there be a maximum number of shares to be acquired, therefore shares tendered could be subject to possible pro-ration?
- Is it DEISG’s intention to delist DELTA?
- Will the full year dividend be netted, or not, from the Bt71/share offer?
- Will the indicative timetable be delayed, especially to factor in the FY18 dividend?
Currently trading at a gross/annualised spread (assuming 12 April payment and no dividend) of 0.4/1.4%, or 5%/22% if including a Bt3.30 FY18 dividend and mid-May payment, factoring in a one-month delay in the tender offer. That looks overly tight in the face of timing delays and actual consideration to be paid if indeed it comes out to be a partial offer.
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