In this briefing:
- Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): 2Q19 Results Again Confirm New 3-Year Growth Cycle; HNA Overhang Removed
- MYOB (MYO AU): KKR Making Out like Bandits Due to a Sharp Market Rally
- Last Week in GER Research: API/Sigma, M1, Eclipx/Mcmillan and Hansoh IPO
- M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Axiata Throws in the Towel, Delisting Looms
1. Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): 2Q19 Results Again Confirm New 3-Year Growth Cycle; HNA Overhang Removed
Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) published 2Q19 results which again confirmed that the long-anticipated rise in revenues (+20% YoY) and profits (+99% YoY) has finally arrived. After three years of stagnation, this is the second quarter in a row that real earnings growth is visible.
YTD the share price of SILV has run by approximately 31% as we saw some larger volume spikes earlier this year which indicate that HNA is now finally off the register as a significant shareholder. Since HNA’s stake had dropped below 5% the new buyer has not had to step forward and disclose its identity.
Importantly, management believes the first half of FY19 was just the beginning of a new 3-year growth cycle and prospects are looking good for both FY2019 (ends June 2019) and FY2020 (ends June 2020). Dividends will continue but might be tempered depending on the number of acquisitions that are made.
Risk-Reward is not as attractive as early November but continues to look solid at these levels with a total return of 20% still achievable (assuming mid-point of historical P/E range) or a total return of 60% (assuming high-end of historical P/E range).
2. MYOB (MYO AU): KKR Making Out like Bandits Due to a Sharp Market Rally
MYOB Group Ltd (MYO AU)‘s shares are trading A$3.42, marginally above KKR & Co Inc (KKR US)‘s revised lower offer of A$3.40 cash per share, due to the expectation of a bidder trumping KKR. The optimism has also been stoked by the sharp market rally since MYOB agreed to recommend KKR’s revised lower offer on 24 December 2018. The ASX 200 and ASX 300 Information Technology Index has rallied 10% and 20% respectively from 24 December 2018 to 15 February 2019.
While shareholders may feel like KKR is acquiring MYOB at a knockdown price, the market could quickly revert to a downward trend. We believe that shareholders hoping for a white knight to ride to the rescue will be disappointed.
3. Last Week in GER Research: API/Sigma, M1, Eclipx/Mcmillan and Hansoh IPO
In this version of the GER weekly research wrap, we assess the bump prospects in the Australian Pharma Industries (API AU) / Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) potential merger. Arun updates on M1 Ltd (M1 SP) which could be delisted following an unconditional offer. In addition, we dig into the trading update for Eclipx (ECX AU) and assess the risks that Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) could walk away from the deal. Finally, we initiate on the IPO of Hansoh Pharmaceutical (HANSOH HK). A calendar of upcoming catalysts is also attached.
More details can be found below.
Best of luck for the new week – Rickin, Venkat and Arun
4. M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Axiata Throws in the Towel, Delisting Looms
After the market close last Friday, M1 Ltd (M1 SP) announced that the voluntary conditional offer (VGO) became unconditional as Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP) and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) (KCL-SPH) has an interest in M1 of 76.4%. The offer became unconditional due to Axiata Group (AXIATA MK), the single largest shareholder with a 28.7% shareholding, accepting the offer.
KCL-SPH again extended the closing date of the offer from 18 February to 4 March 2019. M1’s shares are trading at S$2.04 per share, marginally below the VGO price of S$2.06 per share. We believe that the KCL-SPH should get the valid acceptances to complete the delisting and wholly own M1.
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