In this briefing:
- GUNKUL (GUNKUL TB): Solar to Drive Top-Line Growth
- ASAP: Weak Profitability Priced In, While Growth Still Intact
- Are US Stocks Still Expensive?
1. GUNKUL (GUNKUL TB): Solar to Drive Top-Line Growth
- Good payout ratio, good growth in core profit, and strong long-term sales growth relative to its sector
- Acquisition of 49% stake in a 30MW solar farm in Malaysia with a commercial operation date (COD) set for 1Q20 to support revenue growth
- High volume of solar rooftop installation projects planned for Charoen Pokphand Foods Pub (CPF TB) and other private firms to boost GUNKUL’s construction revenue
- Attractive at 19CE* PEG ratio of 0.5 relative to ASEAN Industry at 1.6
- Risk: Lower than expected electricity demand, unfavorable weather conditions
* Consensus Estimates
2. ASAP: Weak Profitability Priced In, While Growth Still Intact
We maintain a BUY rating on ASAP with new 2019E target price of Bt3.80 (from Bt6.50), derived from 19.6xPE, which is 1.0x PEG of earnings growth in 2019-20E.
The story:
- Trimmed 2018-20F earnings forecast by 35%
- Not a falling knife, but fallen angel
- Potential disruptor in car rental industry
- Expect a 20% CAGR for earnings in 2019-20E
Risks:
- Contract termination of airport space leases
- Participating in a highly competitive industry
- Cash-flow management will be a challenge in a growth phase
3. Are US Stocks Still Expensive?
There are striking parallels between 1929 and 2018.
The 1929 crash put a halt to a nine-year bull run on the market.
Up until October 1929, same as this year, market consensus was that asset prices could only go up from their current level.
As we mentioned in When the Tide Goes Out, Dominoes Fall, a decade of building up excesses meant a painful burst, back 79 years ago: between October of 1929 and September of 1932, eighty-nine percent of the value of stocks was erased and the market didn’t recover to its former peak until 25 years later.
Are we in a similar situation right now?
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