Brief Thailand: What Next in the Inflation / Deflation Debate and What Does It Mean for Asset Prices? and more

In this briefing:

1. What Next in the Inflation / Deflation Debate and What Does It Mean for Asset Prices?
2. Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Markets Are Still Waiting for the Result of US-China Trade Talks
3. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 1: Why and How?
4. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Elections, Trade War Beneficiaries, and Indonesian Textiles
5. Political Pit Stop (April): An Election Gridlock

1. What Next in the Inflation / Deflation Debate and What Does It Mean for Asset Prices?

Despite some signs of stabilization in China’s factory gauges the primary trend is still weakness and it might be rash for investors to read too much into the recent data given the apparent weakness in the Eurozone and the moderation form a high level of growth in the United States.  Quantitative tightening is on hold in the United States but a sharp “U-turn” to easing has not happened yet and is politically embarrassing. As inflation falls real rates are rising. Housing markets are showing signs of price weakness. Investors need to watch for signs of credit quality decay that could be an indicator of the next period of severe financial distress. 

2. Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Markets Are Still Waiting for the Result of US-China Trade Talks

3. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 1: Why and How?

China’s current efforts to gain prominence in the semiconductor market targets memory chips – large commodities.  This three-part series of insights examines how China determined its strategy and explains which companies are the most threatened by it.

In the first part of this series we will see what motivated China to enter the market and how it plans to do so.

4. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Elections, Trade War Beneficiaries, and Indonesian Textiles

Macro Insights

In Prayuth Accomplishes a Clear-Cut Victory, Assuring Stability (If Not Rapid Growth), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Prasenjit K. Basu comments on the result of the recent election in Thailand. 

In Thai Election 2019: Defeat in Parliament, Victory in Senate, Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the results on the Thai elections and the consequences for decision making in that country. 

In a follow-up Insight on the recent election in Thailand, Political Pit Stop (April): An Election Gridlock, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA deals with some unfinished business post the election.

In Elections, Coups and Constitutions: Thailand’s Reckoning, Dr. Jim Walker looks at Thailand’s political history with the recent election in mind and concludes that Thai politics looks set to become fractious and interesting once again. 

In his insight, 18pt Lead Mitigates Prabowo-Related Risk / Islamic Parties Declining / PRC Textile Plan / 4th Debate, Kevin O’Rourke looks and the most important political and economic developments over the past week and provides his value-added comment. 

In Vietnam Picks up the China Baton, Dr. Jim Walker lays out his thoughts on which countries are set to benefit the most from the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. Indonesia and Vietnam would seem to be the most obvious beneficiaries.  

Equity Bottom-Up Insights

In his most recent on-the-ground insight, Shaky Situations at DEMCO and Pranda, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his thoughts post visits to two companies with very different trajectories, namely renewable power specialist Demco Pcl (DEMCO TB), which is struggling, despite doing really well in the past and jeweller Pranda Jewelry Pub (PRANDA TB), once struggling but now on a recovery path. 

In Golden Agri Bull Pivots to Get Involved, technical specialist Thomas Schroeder works his magic on this leading Singapore listed plantation company.

For a fundamental view on the above situations please refer to last week’s insight, Golden Agri: El Nino Back on the Front Burner; Bullish Catalyst for GAR, from commodities specialist Charles Spencer who zeros on the potential positive impact from an impending El Nino event on Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP). 

Sector and Thematic Insights

In Small Cap Diary: Rajthanee Hospital, CAZ, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his thoughts post visits to these two small-cap companies from totally different industries Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB) and CAZ Thailand PCL (CAZ TB). 

5. Political Pit Stop (April): An Election Gridlock

Despite the election being over on March 24, Thailand has a few unfinished business to attend to:

• EC impeachment. Many irregularities were found in the election and ballot boxes both inside and outside Thailand, prompting a move to impeach the Election Committee for a job poorly done.
• The two alliances. After the count, the Thaksinite lead over Army faction widens, and a number of parties have committed to their cause. Yet, the Senate will vote for Gen Prayuth with overwhelming majority. Whoever wins (our bet is still on the Army), it will be hard-won and unlikely confirmed until the May deadline.
• The fence sitters. The Democrats went back on their earlier move to the Thaksinite camp, while the swing vote parties, led by Bhumjaithai, continue to bide for time. Without their decision, it is impossible to announce a winner, although it is beleived they will eventually side with the incumbent.
• New round of mud slinging. The Army faction attacks Thaksin for disrespect, while the Thaksinites, though already leading in polls, claim the ballot boxes were tampered.

In light of this, the only safe ‘political’ stocks to play are those likely to benefit regardless of who wins, such as STEC and TSC. An extended political gridlock is also likely to weigh down the market until May, when we expect it to be resolved.