In this briefing:
1. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Elections, Inflation, and Indonesian Retail Therapy
This week’s offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
The past week’s macro offering is focused on upcoming elections in Indonesia and Thailand, with insights on both under Smartkarma Originals from Virgil Fernandez Esguerra. In the Equity Bottom-Up section, Angus Mackintosh finds middle-class retail therapy in Indonesia alive and well following a meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), whilst Travis Lundy comments on the ongoing takeover of Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ) by Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Group Inc (Adr) (MTU US). In the Sector and Thematic section Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on Cryptocurrency in Thailand.
In the first country piece in elections in a series under Smartkarma Originals, 2019 Elections – Part 1. Thailand: Magic Moment for Democracy’s Return?, Virgil Fernandez Esguerra focuses on the upcoming Thai Election.
In part 2 of a series under Smartkarma Originals, 2019 Elections – Part 2. Indonesia: Jokowi’s Policies – Magic Bullet or Bitter Pill?, Virgil Fernandez Esguerra zero in on Indonesia’s upcoming Presidential election.
In Army Offered Plums / Widodo Hammers ‘propaganda’ / Steady GDP / March KCIC Land Target / Kamil 2024, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most significant political and economic developments in Indonesia over the last week.
In Indonesia’s Negative Investment List – “Open For Business” Is Lip-Service Only, Dr Jim Walker zeros in on Indonesia’s negative investment list which has yet to be published.
In Philippine CPI: Normalization Begins in January with Another Inflation Fade Out, Jun Trinidad provides us with his views on inflation in the Philippines.
Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Retail Therapy Is Alive and Well, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) post a meeting with management in Jakarta.
In BDMN/BBNP Merger Leads to BDMN Buyout Arb, Events Specialist Travis Lundy revisits the ongoing acquisition of Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ) by Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU US) and finds there is a trade to be done.
In Wilmar: China Listing at ~20x Might Prove Too Optimistic. , commodity specialists Charles Spencer discusses Wilmar International (WIL SP) ‘s China list and os sceptical about lofty valuations.
In Silverlake Axis Rally Ignition and Hurdles, technical specialist Thomas Schroeder works his magic on Silverlake Axis (SILV SP).
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Sathorn Series N: Thai Cryptocurrency Regulations Update, Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA zeros in on Cryptocurrency regulations in Thailand.
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