In this briefing:
- StubWorld: Hang Lung’s Implied Stub At Extreme Levels
- Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps
1. StubWorld: Hang Lung’s Implied Stub At Extreme Levels
This week in StubWorld …
- Hang Lung (10 HK) has lagged 57.6%-held Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) after announcing full-year results, resulting in the implied stub touching 2 STD away from the average.
- An update on Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)‘s stub investments via its venture capital arm, InVent.
Preceding my comments on HLG and Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
2. Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps
We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
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